The smell of the Autumn Carnival is in the air on Tuesday at Caulfield with the Blue Diamond Previews highlighting a strong eight race program. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:11) : The Grand Hotel Frankston Handicap (84) 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Boundary (Best Odds: $7.00) sat deep with cover at Flemington and loomed to win the race, but just peaked on the run and ended up in fourth to impressive mare Miss Softhands. Draws better here and Williams remains on.
Big Danger: 6 Shacarde (Best Odds: $4.40) ran second to Miss Softhands at Ladbrokes Park and tried hard, where she was given a lovely front running ride by Luke Currie, but the winner was just too good. Draws to lead again, or could get the dream sit. Either way, a definite threat.
Roughie: 7 Baby Don’t Cry (Best Odds: $4.80) ran over this track/distance a couple of weeks back and stuck on well when second to Fast Approaching. Gets a 4kg weight swing, so she should turn the tables here and prove hard to beat.
Race Two (13:46) : Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Final 1700m:
Back Me: 4 Profit Share (Best Odds: $3.50) has been excellent in winning a couple of Country Cups at Warrnambool, both aided by lovely rides from gun Tassie apprentice Kyle Maskiell. Loses nothing, and in fact probably gains a bit with Mark Zahra on, he draws well and gives the impression he will handle this with no issues. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: 3 Sadaqa (Best Odds: $6.00) was rewarded for consistency with a gritty on speed win over the mile here, beating home a handy field. Has to rise 5kg, which is the big negative, but he gets the services of D Dunn and maps well.
Roughie: 2 Tuscan Fire (Best Odds: $21.00) resumed at Flemington and closed off well between runners for a nice fifth to Underestimation in a form race that has held up nicely. He has a pretty good record at the track and has the class factor on his side.
Race Three (14:21) : Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Preview (C&G) 1000m:
Back Me: Really keen to see the debut of 14 Weatherly (Best Odds: $3.80). First starter for Paul Messara. Hasn’t trialled publicly, but is so well bred, draws well and gets the services of Craig Williams. In a tricky race, I’ll lean his way.
Big Danger: 5 Cohesion (Best Odds: $4.20) sat on speed when debuting in the Breeders Plate (1000m) and tried hard, but was simply no match for the best two year in Australia, Capitalist. Resumes here off the back of a very sharp trial win at Ladbrokes Park. If he overcomes the draw, he’ll go close.
Roughie: 9 El Venetian (Best Odds: $11.00) debuts here for Peter Moody. This son of Moshe, had a nice trial at Cranbourne back in September, but in more recent times has looked impressive at the Caulfield jump outs. He is one to watch for sure.
Race Four (14:56) : Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Preview (Fillies) 1000m:
Back Me: 4 La Renarde (Best Odds: $6.00) debuted down the Flemington straight and just looked like she needed the experience when second to Want To Rock in an impressive race. Back to her home track now, gate one and Oliver remains on.
Big Danger: 6 Sword Of Light (Best Odds: $5.00) was the heavily backed favourite in that Flemington race mentioned above, but was scratched behind the barriers. The debut win was very impressive, as was the jump outs prior. Looks well above average and should get every chance.
Roughie: 5 Extra Olives (Best Odds: $21.00) debuted at Kyneton a tick under three weeks back and was pretty good in winning, and the form has held up with Ponte Roma winning next start. Time was pretty good in comparison to the older horses, so she can measure up here for sure IMO.
Race Five (15:31) : MyPunter.com Handicap (70) 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Kracken (Best Odds: $4.80) took on the older horses last time out at Ladbrokes Park when making up solid ground late to run fourth to in form galloper Prix D’or. This looks more his go, and this is a very winnable race.
Big Danger: 8 Makatiti (Best Odds: $4.80) attempted to lead all the way over 1400m at Ladbrokes Park last start and looked the winner but he just tired late when a close up second to Portion Control. Should be on speed again from the good gate and is a definite threat.
Roughie: 2 Tempered (Best Odds: $17.00) comes back in trip after running over 1800m here a fortnight back when tiring late behind impressive winner Yulong Baby in what should be a strong form race. On his prior form, he is a winning chance.
Race Six (16:10) : Theshark.com.au Plate (84) 2406m:
Back Me: 3 Bajour (Best Odds: $5.00) on top for me here. He was given a lovely ride by Oliver last time out at Ladbrokes Park over this distance, surging late under the champion hoop to win. No issues here for mine, and he should only improve IMO.
Big Danger: 1 Quick Strike (Best Odds: $2.80) was given every possible hope by Brad Rawiller last start at Flemington and looked home, but he couldn’t quite get past the tough stayer and the well backed Lucques. Melham takes over and he has a really solid record on Chris Waller trained gallopers.
Roughie: 4 Packing Empire (Best Odds: $10.00) has been given a little freshen up since boxing on very gamely over 2500m at Flemington when a close up third to Bling Dynasty. He’ll roll along again on speed and prove tough to run down.
Race Seven (16:50) : John Dillon Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Taddei Tondo (Best Odds: $26.00) for me at a price. He ran over 1200m here a fortnight back and closed off very strongly when third to Duke Of Brunswick, beaten two lengths. He meets Duke Of Brunswick 3.5kg better at the weights, better suited at 1400m, regular rider aboard yet is nearly seven times the price of Duke Of Brunswick…$26 is a great price.
Big Danger: 3 Tried And Tired (Best Odds: $5.50) comes through the Chester Manifold (1400m) where he loomed to win the race, but as we know, it’s near impossible to beat Darren Gauci on a leader and he got the best out of Tudor. I am confident Tried And Tired can turn the tables and he has a pretty good record at the track.
Roughie: 5 Mighty Like (Best Odds: $19.00) was very sharp in a jump out prior to that Duke Of Brunswick race where he got held up a touch before getting clear and working home strongly. He also meets the stablemate 3.5kg better at the weights and stable rider takes over.
Race Eight (17:30) : The Cove Hotel Handicap (78 1200m:
Back Me: Keen on the Team Hawkes trained 13 Satya (Best Odds: $2.90). First up here after a pretty solid opening prep in the Spring, the daughter of Redoute’s Choice dipped her toe in Stakes grade and was far from disgraced. Jump outs have been electric, so it’s easy to see why she is the favourite.
Big Danger: 2 Boomwaa (Best Odds: $5.50) was luckless two back at the Valley before running down the Flemington straight where he looked the winner 200m out but just felt the pinch late when second to Duibio. He runs well here and will do no work from the good gate.
Roughie: 9 Rock ‘N’ Gold (Best Odds: $16.00) was good against the pattern last time out at Geelong when fifth to the well backed King’s Command after getting too far back in the run. He’ll get back again from the wide gate, but if the speed is on, he’ll charge late.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 13 Satya
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Boundary
VALUE: Race Seven Number 9 Taddei Tondo
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4
Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11
Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 13
$50 Investment= 9.25% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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