26/8/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Carlyon Stakes day

The Valley will conduct a ten event meeting on Saturday for Carlyon Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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Carlyon Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Carlyon Stakes

3 Jewel Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me. Phillip Stokes trained three year old that comes to The Valley off the back of a first up win at Morphettville two weeks ago where he led throughout and despite being out of petrol tickets late, he had enough in hand to score. Should find the front here and if the track is playing up/in, he’ll take running down.

1 Amur (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Snitzel that is first up for James Cummings. He is first up, having not raced since March 25 when winning the Schweppervescence at Rosehill and was spelled soon after. Trial work has been more than encouraging and if this becomes a truly run 1200m, he will be one of the strongest at the end.

4 Mansiere (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a five start career for Nick Ryan. Dominant win to break the maiden tag at Bendigo two back before going here two weeks ago when ridden with a sit from the wide gate and found the line strongly when a close up third to Lakota Fire. Racing like 1200m will be okay and strikes a winnable race IMO.

9 The Prodigal Son (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a pretty progressive animal for Craig Widdison. He is three weeks between runs since racing down the straight at Flemington in a race identical to this. He got into the right part of the track, was within range and under Ollie, he was too good for them. Firm deck, good speed in front, he’ll get his chance to finish over the top once again.

7 Lord Domino (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying. He has placed his last two, both at the track/distance. Latest came a fortnight back when outside the speed throughout and was there to win but he just didn’t have the finale to go with Pereille late, eventually running third. Drops a fair bit in depth, good racing style, he commands respect.

8 Social Conscience (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the key chances. This gelding ran at this track/distance two weeks back in the Pereille race mentioned above when on speed throughout and tried his guts out but was no match late for the promising Godolphin horse. Maps to get a sweet run in transit and after the claim, he’s in the mix.

3 Robrick (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to rate as one of the hardest to beat. Price/Kent stable are absolutely flying with their younger horses and this horse comes here three weeks between runs since a dominant win over 1400m at Flemington where he got into a lovely spot behind the speed before angling into clear air and he got better as the race went on. Extra 100m no issue, in form, stable in form…he’ll do me.

6 Riproar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1500m for Andrew Forsman. This Kiwi made his Australian debut over 1300m at Bendigo where he just lacked the change up speed to put them away but stuck to the task quite well when a narrow second to Awapuni Princess. Got good upside to come and fitter, up in trip, he only runs well.

5 Surprise Coming (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a nice horse from SA. He has had three runs back from a spell, winning the opening two before going to 1200m two weeks back at Morphettville when driving hard to just miss out on picking up Jewel Bay, who I like in the opener, so you’ll know come jump time here how strong that form is.

7 Hennessy Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the straight bat option. Peter Moody trained gelding that ran three weeks ago at Flemington when on speed throughout and credit to him, he kept finding and was only nabbed late by Brayden Star. He was only second up there so with room for improvement, a kind map, it all points to him.

6 Crackerjack Prince (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has always had the engine under the hood to be a Saturday class horse and now off a win, he can go on with it. He was kept pretty safe in betting when racing two weeks ago at this track/distance when making a sustained run from off the speed and he kept going for a rather dominant win. Harder here, but hard to knock that last start effort.

2 Vitruvius (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous with his best. Nick Ryan trains this gelding, who ran over the mile at Flemington a few weeks back where he got back in the run and did make up ground, but was never really a factor behind the in form Brayden Star. He is hit and miss, but with his best, he can certainly take this out.

3 Ferago (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat against these. He is several weeks between runs since contesting the the VOBIS Gold Stayers at Caulfield where he was most unlucky not to win, not getting room to move until it was too late. Proven performer at the track/distance and does strike a very winnable race IMO.

5 Wuddzz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing in really good form for Henry Dwyer. Dominant win over 2400m during the Swan Hill Carnival before having several weeks off and racing at this track/distance where he tried his guts out in what eventually turned into a slog, but was simply no match late for Claidheamh Mor. Room for improvement, he appeals against these.

1 United Nations (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be ready to go. Just needed the run fresh over 1800m behind Bold Mac. He then went to 2400m a few weeks back at Rosehill when kept safe in betting but didn’t quite fire and was a tad on the plain side behind stablemate Verona. Hard fit, upside, right camp, not penning him…yet.

3 Inhibitions (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take beating here for James Cummings. She resumed several weeks ago at Rosehill and she should have won, comfortably, but she just couldn’t get out behind the leader and it ended up being a very ugly watch when third to Taormina. Fitter, if she gets clear air this time around, she is in with a big shout, especially off a nice trial.

2 Croatian Belle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good record at The Valley and finds a winnable race. She resumes, having not raced since the Gold Rush at Bendigo when producing an end of prep run when down the track behind Shesallshenanigans. Jumpout work has been solid and maps to get a sweet run in transit.

1 Ethereal Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the class of the field. Just a matter of where she is at re fitness levels. Kiwi filly that hasn’t raced since The Championships at Randwick when struggling in the conditions in the Percy Sykes. The stable, early days this Spring Carnival, has been cast, but she is a good filly when right.

6 Brayden Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a smart animal for Busuttin/Young and is hard to beat. Looked extremely hard to beat when racing a few weeks back at Flemington and under a peach from Oliver, he finished best, proving too strong for Hennessy Lad. That was his first run in five weeks so with good room for improvement, he’ll take beating against this lot.

3 Interpretation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very good horse when right. Just want to see what he does here. He resumed here at the meeting where the inside was dynamite and he took advantage, working home with purpose to run third to The Summit. Fitter, up in trip, it all points to him running well. Just depends was the first up run flattering.

9 Irish Flame (Bet Now:  $SP.00) saves his best for this track/distance and with a good racing style, I wouldn’t be dismissing him. Narrow second two back to Flash Flood here before racing two weeks back when attempting to lead throughout and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Floating Artist. Doubt he wins but a first four threat.

8 Omni Man (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should atone for last start. He should have won two weeks ago at this track/distance but bombed the start and that pretty much sealed his fate, but you had to like the way he kept finding the line when a narrow second to Sweet Ride. Should have won and with a more positive jump here, he should land on speed and prove too good.

1 Sweet Ride (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Annabel and does seem to have a real liking for The Valley. Placed in the Red Anchor last year and went better a fortnight back when winning at this track/distance. I do think he is more effective as a short course animal so 1000m suits and is hard fit. Clearly appeals.

7 Acromantula (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a WA raider who is short course specialist so is suited to 1000m at The Valley. He resumed at the track/distance two weeks back when attempting to lead throughout and giving a solid kick but couldn’t quite get the job done when beaten narrowly by Sweet Ride. Last bit will test but he’ll look the winner for a long way.

7 St Lawrence (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very nice horse for Maher/Eustace and I think he has to rate as the one to beat once again. 2/2 this time in, both coming over 1400m at Caulfield. Latest was several weeks ago where he looked a moral on paper and despite a few nervous moments, class came to the fore and he was much too good for them in an impressive display. Getting towards peak fitness and up to 1600m, could be a case of good luck beating him.

6 Deny Knowledge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was down to run in the PB Lawrence last Saturday but has been kept on ice with this in mind. She resumes for Mick Kent, having not raced since an outstanding all the way win in the Country Oaks on Good Friday. Spelled with the Spring in mind, she has the right racing pattern to give this a shake and challenge the favourite.

10 Conqueror (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. He was several weeks between runs when racing a few weeks back at Flemington. He was specked at odds and ran well from just off the speed, beaten just under two lengths by Brayden Star. Not sure he is good enough to win but can certainly finish top four.

5 Red Hot Nicc (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Phillip Stokes trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since March 5 when a strong all the way winner over 1200m here, producing sustained speed from the front and giving nothing else a look in. He’s had a couple of jumpouts to get ready and looked sharp in the latest when winning over 1000m, so he’s had the grounding to run well fresh.

3 Maximillius (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give them something to chase. That was the case when resuming at this track/distance a fortnight back where he led throughout and yes, Olly was very close to copping a decent suspension after stopping riding but he clung on. He can be hit and miss at times but his best is good enough to win again.

9 Jack Of It (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. He resumed down the straight at Flemington three weeks back where he was outclassed on paper but in the end, he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Bendetta. Not sure he is good enough to win but he can certainly fill a first four spot.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 7 St Lawrence

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 8 Omni Man

LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 5 Red Hot Nicc

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 9

Leg Two: 8

Leg Three: 7

Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 7, 9

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