26/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Boxing Day races

4 Variara (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a peanut each way in a thin maiden to start the meeting. He was 1100m to 1350m and a few weeks between runs when racing at Port Lincoln last Friday where he was wide no cover for the trip and was entitled to knock right up but he kept finding under pressure and was only nabbed late by Shema. Back to 1200m is fine and with the claim, soft gate, he’ll do me each way.

8 Shosanna (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to beat. Will Clarken trained mare that was a notable drifter in betting when resuming at Balaklava but was still a short priced favourite. I thought she had every chance in front and was quite weak late when fourth to Willaston, perhaps condition giving way? Or is she a 900m squib? Jockey upgrade, early speed, she’ll get every chance, but I couldn’t back her with confidence.

1 Family Addition (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Astern for Mick Huxtable that resumes. His last run came at Balaklava back on June 29 when down the track and at the end of a plain prep behind Blue Luna. Been given a good break and I thought he jumped out really well at Murray Bridge to get ready for his return. Stable finds Pannell to ride fresh, I’d watch the market with him.

It looks a tricky meeting, so get the good thing out of the way early and for me it is 10 Zebella (Bet Now:  $SP.00). This filly had a two run Winter prep to start her career, placing each time, the latest behind a nice horse in Eros, who has good form lines around him. Looked sharp in a jumpout win and backed it up with an electric trial win. She looks ready to go and IMO has a bit on this lot.

1 Bonnie Gangster (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a definite threat if Zebella is off her game. He resumed in the Our Shining Star race mentioned above where he got a mile back in the run and spotted them a decent start but really liked the way he finished his race off to finish a close up fourth. Like him up in trip and if he can settle closer in the run, I think he’s a lock to run top three and could challenge Zebella if she’s vulnerable.

7 Mulhall (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver. Team Jolly trained filly that resumed just over two weeks ago over 1050m here where she had the suck run behind the speed and seemed to have her chance but battled away pretty well in defeat behind Our Shining Star, beaten around a short neck. Like her up to 1100m and it’s no secret that this stable are absolutely flying in turn to start the season.

7 Wild Imagination (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the main threat to the stablemate. He ran over 1800m here just over two weeks ago and I thought there was plenty of merit in the win because she was there to be run down but she found when required, fended off Hopon Harry and was too good. Back 200m in trip should be fine, she’ll be strong late and loses nothing with Vorster replacing Toeroek, though his preference is Pudding, which might be the key lead.

2 Hopon Harry (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the only key threat here. He ran second to Wild Imagination in the race mentioned above and looked to have every chance to wear the mare down, but she just packed too many punches and was too good in the run to the line. I don’t think he was entirely suited by the sit/sprint set up, which is what will likely happen here, but outside the first two, there is no depth, so he’s the threat.

I want to give 6 Lake’s Folly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) another chance. He’s just over two weeks between runs after racing over 1800m last time out at Morphettville where to the eye, it was just a run, but his late splits relative to the race were strong, with the race shape working against him. Back to this sort of trip looks ideal for him, and his prior form suggested a win was near. Wouldn’t be shocked if the win came here.

3 Jean Valjean (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another example of Will Clarken and a tried horse. First run for him was just over two weeks ago at Morphettville and it was a strong win, landing big bets in the process in a strong display. There is more depth to this line up and it looks a tricky gate to overcome, but really, I think he only has to hold his form to be taking this out.

2 Larkham (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the threat. Jury was out on how well he was going but he bounced back to positive form last time when a closing second to Jean Valjean, beaten narrowly but found the line with purpose. Small field will be interesting for him and whether he leads/controls, or opts for a sit and try to outsprint. Either way, he’s the main danger to the Will Clarken trained mare.

4 Queman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in the mix for sure. Trialled up really well prior to resuming at this track/distance where he was wide no cover on speed and that early burn just told late behind Jean Valjean. Better for the run, I think he gets a much better set up this time around and off his prior form when last in work, he is certainly of being dangerous against these.

3 Fox Gem (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to get a win on the board and I think he gets a great chance here. He ran over 1800m here last time where he seemingly got every chance behind the speed and was there to win but for mine, the 1800m was a bridge too far behind Residue, but battled on well enough for third. Back to 1600m I do like for him and with the claim, gee he gets in well. Hopefully there is petrol left in the tank.

1 Exalted Fire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hit and miss but off last run, he’s right in the mix. He ran last Saturday at Gawler and looked all over a winner when he loomed but as the day progressed, up/in was the pattern and that was the difference between winning and losing when beaten a lip by Eagles Forever. He can mix his form, but if he runs up to last start, he will take beating against this lot.

5 Recreant (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a last start winner that can threaten with his best. He produced somewhere near that last time out at Murray Bridge where he got a cheap run on speed and that was the difference between winning and losing, because he was able to fight them off for a strong and determined win. Maps to get a lovely run in transit and has winning form, whereas most of these are a while between wins.

1 Our Heidi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been a frustrating horse to follow for a fair while, but really, if she’s anywhere near right, she has panels on these. Phillip Stokes trained mare that resumes, having not raced since June 25 when four wide no cover for the trip and the hard run just told when down the track behind Legless Lady. She is a mare who can sprint well fresh and her trial/jumpout work indicates she’s ready to go.

2 Jaazeb (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver onto the bigger track. Richards/Moyle trained gelding that resumed last Saturday at Gawler where the pattern was against him but I thought he found the line well enough in defeat behind Viduka. Lone win came at this track/distance and with luck from the tricky gate, his best is certainly good enough to be around the mark.

3 Commander Meroo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a John Macmillan trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since October 1 when producing an end of prep run, finishing tailed off last behind Mr Marathon Man, but it was a good first prep and he was just a tired horse. 1100m is on the short side for him, but there is good speed engaged, so sitting off it, I think he will be strong late.

1 Tan Tat Beau (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is absolutely flying for Aaron Bain and can make it three on the bounce. Those two wins came at Gawler, but the win last time had plenty of merit given he was wide no cover on speed and was there to be beaten but found when needed. Good test here but maps to get a lovely run in transit and with the claim, I think he’ll take beating, especially back to 1100m.

4 Bajan Belle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will prove hard to beat with a clean jump. She was tardy to begin a few weeks ago at Morphettville and that sealed her fate, but was good to the line when fifth to an in form The Magistrate. Clean jump, she’ll land on the bunny and if this track is playing up/in, she’ll take beating against these.

Back to 1100m I do like for 8 Disco Tilmorn (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Last couple of runs have come at 1200m and while she has run okay, I don’t think six furlongs at around this level is her go. I think she’s better suited at 1100m and with a firmer deck, a patient steer, I think she can run a much improved race at a decent price because her best is just about better than these.

8 Aussie Sojourn (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to win and I do think a rise to 2000m is perfect for her. Just looked in need of the run fresh behind Texan Winstorm before stepping up to 1800m here and she was a real eye catcher from the back when fourth to Residue, getting better as the race went on. Just about at peak fitness now and up in trip, just needs to settle closer and she’ll take beating.

4 Badonkidonk (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for the Dodson camp and is clearly hard to beat here. He made an absolute mess of them at Murray Bridge last time, sitting off the speed but was trucking in the run before coming with his finale and he made an absolute mess of them. Runner up was Swankytoff and that horse was impressive winning on Wednesday so the form has been franked and up to 2000m should be fine.

6 Kyshaka (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has upside compared to most and the rise in trip should be ideal. Thought she was good first up on the Parks track before going to Balaklava where they rode her warm and it backfired, just feeling the pinch late but was far from disgraced in defeat. Like her up in trip and with a more conservative steer, a win wouldn’t entirely shock with her.

9 Wonderwomen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me in the get out. Aaron Bain trained mare that is second up here after resuming over 1050m here where she was run off her legs early and took a while to balance up but was good late when fourth to Jean Valjean. Yet to tick a box beyond 1000m but off the resumption, 1200m looks like it will be fine and has more upside than most.

13 Tupoleu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to beat. Attempted to lead throughout a few weeks ago on the Parks track and he gave a solid kick but couldn’t quite finish it off, tiring late to finish just over two lengths away from Pentire’s Spirit. Like him back to 1200m and if he gets a cheap run on speed, without spending too many petrol tickets, he’ll be quite dangerous.

3 Inspired Sun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver for David Jolly. He resumed in the Jean Valjean race mentioned above and he was never a factor, getting a mile out of his ground and failing to come on in a plain return. He does have a good second up record and saves his best for 1200m, so he has enough in his corner to run a much improved race here.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 10 Zebella

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Our Heidi

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 8 Aussie Sojourn

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 8

Leg Three: 4, 6, 8, 11, 13

Leg Four: 3, 6, 9, 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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