Racing continues at Flemington this Saturday, highlighted by the Andrew Ramsden (2800m), with the winner getting a free ticket into the 2019 Melbourne Cup. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:35) Cobcroft Support NJT Trophy 1200m
9 Miami Bound (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a filly I’ll take a chance on. Danny O’Brien trains this beautifully bred filly, being by Reliable Man out of VRC Oaks winner Arapaho Miss. This girl looked under a stranglehold from Olly in a recent Flemington jumpout, but did have a Geelong jumpout prior to that and when let down, the turn of foot was there and she looked good, so I’ll go her way.
1 Sebrakate (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is a well performed Sebring colt for the Hayes/Dabernig team resuming. This bloke had a very busy Spring/Summer prep, which saw him run six times for two wins, ending his campaign with a decent enough effort in the Magic Millions. Been given a good break. Looked very sharp in a Flemington jumpout last week, bolting up and leading all the way. Interesting to see how he goes. Also note he had a Bendigo jumpout on April 30 and visually, ugly, but bear in mind he didn’t have the blinkers on.
6 Feign (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is on the seven day back up after racing down the straight here last Saturday where she got held up for a few strides but for mine was out in time to let down and did so, but never really looking a winning threat. Bit more depth to this field IMO but does draw out, so she should get clear air from the outset, has had race experience down the straight and is hard fit.
Race 2. (12:10) NJTappeal.com.au Trophy 1600m
One last chance to 2 Muswellbrook (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS). Was really keen on him when he raced in the Adelaide Guineas at Morphettville where Olly gave him a 12/10 steer and was there to win but couldn’t finish off when fourth to So We Are. I was thinking maybe he wants further, but back to the mile I have no issue with, especially given he draws to land the box seat and be dangerous late.
7 Orcein (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) comes through the Zoutori race from two weeks ago at Caulfield over the mile. He had a suck run behind that horse but couldn’t quite follow him through to get clear air, so had to wait, ease off heels and finish off, which he did strongly. Bigger track should suit this Waller galloper and there is no Zoutori here, so he gets a chance to get another win.
I liked 8 Ligulate (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) to knock off Tarwin in the VOBIS race here over the mile a few weeks ago but Rawiller just couldn’t quite get in and had to sit wide for the trip. To his credit, horse stuck on really well in defeat behind Tarwin. That followed an excellent run off a moderate speed at Newcastle, so the form around him reads well. Just hoping for better luck this time around.
Race 3. (12:45) LUCRF Super Handicap (78) 1100m
Just want to see a market push for the Jamie Edwards trained 8 Fill The Flute (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS). This mare really came of age in the Spring/Summer, winning four races on the bounce before being tired towards the end of the campaign. Been given a good break and for mine, she looked sharp enough in a 1000m jumpout at Geelong a few weeks back. Just want to see if the market likes her.
Good test here for the Will Clarken trained 4 Parsifal (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) but confident he can measure up. He is 3/3 this time in, landing big bets two back during the Warrnambool Carnival before going to 1100m at Morphettville and producing another impressive win. First look down the straight but always have to respect the stable when they come to Melbourne, especially a horse with a picket fence.
15 Honey Esprit (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is a talented mare for the Clinton McDonald stable that resumes. Had a jumpout a couple of weeks back at Caulfield and looked to go about her business quite nicely in behind the leaders. Draws the right part of the track for straight racing, Olly takes the ride and a big key is the blinkers going, signalling intent to run well first up.
Race 4. (13:25) TAB Supports NJT Trophy 1600m
Really keen on the Chris Waller trained 8 Another Dollar (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS). Was keen on her when she resumed over 1400m at Flemington three weeks ago but she was ridden as if she was having another barrier trial. Got back off the slow speed, peeled out very late and took a while to get going but was very good late when a close up fourth. Hopefully with a more genuine tempo, and if she can sit closer in the run, she’ll take some beating.
1 Odeon (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) has been a bit hard to trust and follow but the way this race looks on paper, he could well get a soft lead. He hasn’t raced since the Easter Cup at Caulfield when running a game fourth to Plein Ciel after being on speed throughout. Been given a little freshen up and did look to trial up well earlier in the week at Werribee with Willow steering and he rides this weekend.
Been a fan of 2 Liapari (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) since he’s joined the astute Lisa Enright team and I think he’ll run a beauty here. Was the rank outsider at Caulfield last time and he was the run of the race when a mile off them, surging hard and just missing when second to Mahamedeis. Speaking to Enright, she’s been waiting for a wet track with this bloke. Not sure he’ll get it here, but just have to something small on him.
Race 5. (14:05) PFD Food Services Handicap (78) 1400m
Gee 10 Fabric (Bet Now: $5.00) has been unlucky at her past two since the first up maiden win at Geelong. Should have fought the finish out with Fidelia at Sandown before taking on that filly over the 1400m here three weeks ago and it was an ugly watch if you were on, like I was. She was bolting behind the speed but gaps just didn’t appear for her at all and it was a bit of a horror watch. Hopefully she can get clear air this time around and that form clearly reads well.
6 Vanuatu (Bet Now: $5.50) looks hard to beat here. Was under four weeks between runs when taking on the mares over 1500m at Sandown and even though she likely found the A1 ground, gee she put them away impressively and won with ease and a bit in hand it seemed. Now back to her own age, fitter and up to the mile on the big track, she has plenty going for her.
15 Tides (Bet Now: $23.00) is the close relation to Shoals who got the maiden win out of the way at Bendigo before being given a little break and running a couple of Wednesdays back at Sandown where she was quite good in an on pace dominated race won by the leader Asgard Massif. Can sit closer in the run if need be and third up, she should be ready fitness wise.
Race 6. (14:45) Heritage Finance Handicap (84) 1800m
17 Stealthy Lucas (Bet Now: $11.00) looks just about ready to show his best for Paul Preusker. Thought his resumption on Terang Cup Day was plain but was much better last time out at Bendigo, finishing off strongly between runners to run third to Bag Raider after getting slightly held up. Third up at 1800m on the big track looks an ideal set up and he’ll do me here in a tough race.
9 Dr Drill (Bet Now: $3.40) has been really good in two Australian runs for the Maher/Eustace team. Resumed over 1400m at Caulfield and closed off really well behind Call It A Day before racing over the mile here where he ran a close up fourth to Sunday Pray. Third up at 1800m, I think he should just about be ready fitness wise and this isn’t the strongest race going around.
Can 8 Main Stage (Bet Now: $6.50) be trusted? Blessed with so much talent but upstairs, he’s a loose unit. But he put it together last time out at Sandown, arguably finding the A1 ground and producing the goods, admittedly against a line up that had far less depth compared to this, but if he’s indeed a confidence horse, that win should get his confidence right up.
Race 7. (15:25) Straight Six 1200m
It was just a horrendous watch if you were on 11 Bel Sonic (Bet Now: $10.00) down the straight three weeks ago. He was bolting behind the speed and clear air, he was winning. Unfortunately, Ethan Brown chose the wrong path to get that clear air and instead he went around as if it was a barrier trial behind Milwaukee. He’s flying this horse. Deserves a win and gets his chance here.
5 Haunted (Bet Now: $2.80) has returned in good order for the James Cummings stable. Impressive win first up at Caulfield before going to the 1100m at Morphettville in the McKay where not much went right for him when third to Despatch, who of course franked that form by winning the Goodwood. With that in mind, plus back up to 1200m, he’s very likeable.
This looks to be a target race for 7 Swift Sis. (Bet Now: $23.00). Had seven weeks off prior to racing at Caulfield a fortnight ago where she was never really in the hunt behind surprise winner All About Nicci but wasn’t disgraced in defeat. 2/2 down the Flemington straight and despite rising in class/grade, gets good weight relief and if she can get to the outside, she’ll be strong late.
Race 8. (16:05) Andrew Ramsden 2800m
12 Surprise Baby (Bet Now: $2.25) looks just about the good thing of the weekend. Several of these come through the 2600m race here from three weeks ago and IMO, his run was clearly the best in the race. The Adelaide Cup winner hadn’t raced since that two mile triumph and Paul Preusker had stated pre race that the Flemington run was a barrier trial, so clearly had improvement to come but despite that, he got very close to beating Steel Prince, really warming to the task. He can seal his Melbourne Cup spot with a win here.
No knock on 2 Steel Prince (Bet Now: $3.20). He’s done good things for me this prep, including last time out in that race mentioned above. I thought that was his best win of the prep given he had to sit on speed, do work while those behind bludged and he was left in front a fair way out. Was there to be beaten but found plenty and was too good. 2800m should be okay provided he is ridden more conservatively.
14 Rockarral (Bet Now: $26.00) was scratched from the Queens Cup at Morphettville last Saturday and instead runs here off the back of a really good effort in the Steel Prince race from three weeks ago. He’s been in work a fair while so he had hard fitness leading into that and tried hard but had to settle for a close up fourth. 2800m should be fine for him and stable is flying at the moment.
Race 9. (16:40) Furphy Ale Plate 1100m
Throw at the stumps in the last via 15 Really Swish (Bet Now: $20.00). Trialled up really well for the Corstens team prior to resuming over 1000m at Sandown where he just got too far back in the run but loved the way he picked up and found the line late to run second to Not Enough Effort, who he does meet worse off at the weights here, but draws the right part of the track, at home and stable rider takes over.
1 Anjana (Bet Now: $4.00) has class and the A1 form for this. Three weeks between runs for Mick Price since contesting the Sangster at Flemington when back in the run but finishing off with real purpose behind Spright, actually clocking the best late splits in the race behind the winner. Proven down the straight and back to her own age, she’s one of the hardest to beat.
I think this race will tell us just how good 5 Not Enough Effort (Bet Now: $7.00) is. He’s 3/3 for Sharyn Trolove, the last two coming over 1000m on the Hillside track at Sandown when looking in trouble but when he knuckled down to the task, he surged and really wanted to win, a good sign in a lightly race horse. Hardest test to date, but interesting to see how he goes.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 12 Surprise Baby
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 8 Another Dollar
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 17 Stealthy Lucas
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 6, 8, 9, 17
Leg Two: 2, 5, 7, 11
Leg Three: 12
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 7, 15
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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