Eight races will be run and won at Flemington on Friday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (13:00) Tab We're On (Bm84) 2500m
I think 4 Fernao (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) can measure up here for the Neasham/Archibald camp after a win over 2400m at Sandown where he got better as the race went on to win well despite the narrow margin. He was a few weeks between runs there so with upside/improvement to come, he takes beating.
3 Cable Dancer (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is racing like a rise to 2500m will suit. Strong winner two back over 2000m at Ballarat before going to 2100m where he kept chasing in the straight in a good effort behind the in form She’s A Hustler. 2500m should be fine and this isn’t a deep contest.
7 Affluential (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is an interesting runner. He is a star jumper but is capable on the flat. He was heavily backed in a hurdle race at Pakenham last start but had issues and was eased out of the race. He must have pleased the stable to race so soon, and while he has eyes on the Galleywood next week, he’s good enough to threaten these.
Race 2. (13:35) The Les Carlyon (Bm70) 1400m
8 Rockin At Midnite (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) on top. Chris Waller trained filly that resumed over 1200m at Caulfield where she had the right run in transit and loomed to win but couldn’t quite get there when third to Soft Love. 1400m should be fine and with good upside, she rates highly.
2 Costae (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is a former Kiwi for Grahame Begg that made her Australian debut at Geelong where she was too bad to be true when down the track after seemingly getting a decent run in transit. She has trialled well leading in so don’t dismiss her.
12 Esternay (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) has been freshened up since a maiden win at Cranbourne where she gave them a start and a beating, launching late to finish best and win. B Shinn on in is a good lead ands he does have the 1400m lead up under the belt.
Race 3. (14:10) Wgcdr Ian Bayles Dfc (Bm70) 1800m
1 No Fuss (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) looks a really good prospect for Team McEvoy. 2/2 this time in, both wins coming at Sandown where each time he has savaged the line and won with something in hand. He looks well above average, destined for better races than this…keen.
8 Grey Ice (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) was a surprise first up winner at Caulfield three weeks ago against the Mares where she gave them a start and a beating, letting down with a strong finale to overhaul them in an impressive return. Upside/improvement to come, she’s one of the leading chances.
10 Highland Bling (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Former UK stayer that makes his Aussie debut for Phillip Stokes. His best in the UK did come over 2400m+ so 1800m fresh I do like for him and to my eye, he moved well in a recent jumpout win.
Race 4. (14:45) Auckland Thoroughbred Racing Inc. Trophy (Bm78) 1400m
13 Changing Colours (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) on top. Chris Waller trained mare that resumed at Sandown where she got into a decent spot off the speed and chased with purpose in the straight when third to I Am Velvet. Fitter, drawn to get good cover and launch late.
4 I Am Velvet (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order and is one of the key chances. She resumed with a strong win over 1200m at Sandown, sitting on speed before being clicked up and despite doing a bit wrong, she was too good. Leading chance.
5 Matriarch Rose (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is much better suited over further but she is a mare with talent. She was tested at Stakes level in the Spring but didn’t measure up. She resumes here in a lowly 70 and her jumpout work hasn’t been too bad so watch betting.
Race 5. (15:20) Anzac Day Stakes 1400m
3 Amazake (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) has a tricky draw to overcome but I think he has an engine under the hood. He debuted over this track/distance in the Vobis Gold Plate and tried his guts out but just found one better in Prestige Forever. If he can cover from the gate, he’s the one for me.
13 Just Kick (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1400m after debuting over 1100m at Pakenham where she ran second to Saluted, getting off speed and finding them too sharp but was quite good late, suggesting a rise in trip will suit, and stable is flying.
7 Maldini (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) comes to town for Moody/Coleman off the back of a maiden win at Pakenham where he was wide throughout but was trucking before being clicked up, went through his gears and I thought was impressive. Keen to see him at this level.
Race 6. (15:55) Vrc St Leger 2800m
6 Prochester (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) each way for me here. Andrew Forsman trained gelding that comes to Australia off the back of a third over 2100m at Trentham when off speed and chased with purpose in the straight in a good effort in defeat behind Kiwi Skyhawk. 2800m, I think, is ideal, and he is the one with the different form.
4 Format (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) has been given a mini freshen up for GaiBott since a down the track effort in the Tulloch at Rosehill where he struggled on the bog track. Much better suited here on firmer footing and the stable has a great record in the race. Commands respect.
2 Kicking King (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) comes through the traditional lead up, the Galilee Final. He got off speed and kept chasing but was safely held late by Statuario. He’s one paced so 2800m is no issue…doubt he wins but is a first four threat.
Race 7. (16:30) Flt Lt Peter Armytage (Bm78) 1100m
4 Moonhaven (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) on top for me. He resumes for Team Freedman, having not raced since Sep 28 at Rosehill when down the track behind stablemate Peace Treaty, sitting wide no cover and tiring late. He has looked strong in jumpout work and his best is clearly good enough.
11 Losesomewinmore (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is a Team Jolly trained gelding that resumes. He is first up, having not raced since June 22 at Morphettville over 1200m when back and making up good headway late without threatening behind Episodic. Proven down the straight, watch betting.
9 Cheval Chic (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for Phillip Stokes, having not raced since March 1 over this track/distance when off speed and chased strongly in the straight when close up in defeat behind Pivot City. She’ll spot them a start but launch late.
Race 8. (17:05) William Newton Vc (Bm78) 1400m
Grahame Begg has Magic Time as well as a host of good horses in his stable. I think the potential is there for 5 King Zephyr (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) to take top spot. He is such an exciting prospect that is 3/3 this time in, the latest being at Sandown where he was arrogant the way he put them away, running time. He’s destined for Stakes grade, Group l grade IMO. He just wins.
12 Otago (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is a fascinating runner. Price/Kent trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since the Australian Guineas in 2024 when down the track behind Southport Tycoon. has clearly had his issues but he has an engine under the hood and his jumpout work has been strong.
15 Pure Alpha (Bet Now:Β $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He ran over 1400m at Caulfield last time out where he got a decent run in transit and tried hard but just couldn’t quite finish the job behind Hughes. First four contender.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 King Zephyr
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 No Fuss
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 6 Prochester
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 5, 7, 13
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 12
Leg Three: 1, 4, 9, 11
Leg Four: 5
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
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