25/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Australian Cup day

Group l racing in Melbourne for the season concludes on Saturday at Flemington for Australian Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

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4 Veranskova (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for Cindy Alderson. This mare really came of age when last in work, highlighted by a win down the straight here before strong efforts at Stakes level during the main part of the Spring. Her jumpout work has been strong to the eye, she’ll jump on the bunny and prove quite hard to run down.

9 Snapped (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Freedman trained mare that has been kept on ice, having not raced since Feb 4 at Sandown in the Bellmaine where she found the 1300m a bridge too far behind Wrote To Arataki, who was flying at the time. Fresh legs and back to a sprint trip, if she is within range 400m out, she is certainly good enough to launch late.

6 Duchess Of Dorset (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with her best. She was a big drifter in betting when resuming over 955m at The Valley. She had the suck run from the inside gate and got out late, finishing a close up third to Lady Solly, beaten just under a length. Has won second up previously and with her racing style, she will give herself every chance.

6 Treasurway (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. Jason Warren trained filly that ran down the straight here three weeks ago where she got back in the run and while she was never really a threat, I liked the way she found the line late in the piece when third to Princess Duhallow. Racing like a rise to 1200m will suit and if she’s within range 400m out, she’s good enough to win.

2 Hell Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the win on the board and she can certainly go on with it. Resumed with a solid second in the Talindert behind Maharba before going to Bendigo for the kill and she got it in spades, winning by a space and running solid enough time. Two 1100m runs under the belt, so 1200m here is ideal and she commands respect.

3 Zousuko (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly that I do think has talent. She was heading down the Blue Diamond path but after a fair run in the Prelude, that plan was dodged and has been given a break. Returns here and her recent tick over jumpout at Balnarring was a good piece of work when beaten a lip by an open class sprinter, Curran. 1200m, I think, will be fine, and is in with a shout.

5 Kettle Hill (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been somewhat of an enigma since arriving from the UK but I do think he is good enough to win this. He ran three weeks ago over the mile here and I thought was given every chance by J Kah but he just had no answers for the finale produced by Munhamek, and we saw what he did last Saturday. Unknown at 2000m but I think he is racing like it will be fine.

2 Sparkle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the leading chances. Market took somewhat of a set against her when racing at this track/distance a fortnight back but despite that, she was quite dominant in the run to the line under Shinn, drawing clear over the latter stages and safely held a margin. Loses Shinn for Gaudray, which is a decent jockey downgrade, but offsetting that, to an extent, is the 3kg claim.

4 Hasseltoff (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited back up in trip. He was far from disgraced two back at this track/distance behind Nobel Heights before going to 1800m at Sandown last Wednesday where the race shape didn’t suit him behind Chatelaine. Back up to 2000m, and with the race thinned out after scratchings, he commands some level of respect.

3 On The Lead (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the dry track specialist here so he gets conditions to suit and appeals as one of the key winning chances. He ran down the straight at Flemington a few weeks ago and was very good late, charging to the line and just missing out on picking up Kallos. That was his first run since Australia Day so you’d like to think he has improvement to come and off last run, the straight track is fine.

1 Kallos (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could well be a new horse since being gelded. Three weeks between runs since resuming with a win at this track/distance. It was a sharp win, settling just off the speed before going through his gears under J Kah and despite being out of petrol tickets late, he had enough in hand to score. Three weeks between runs so has freshness still, you’d think, and the class. Hard to beat.

10 Midnight Charm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should prove hard to beat here for Clayton Douglas, who ran down the straight at Flemington two weeks back where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a pretty good kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Kallos. Off that run, he will certainly give a sight and while I doubt he wins, he is a first four spot.

5 Soulcombe (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be near D-Day as to whether or not he’s a genuine Melbourne Cup horse. He has had two runs this time in and to be fair, he has been pretty ordinary, but the two runs have been at 1600m and 2000m respectively. To me, he just wants more ground, which he gets here, and returns to the track of his arrogant Queens Cup win in the Spring. If he brings that here, he wins.

9 So Unusual (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong since arriving from New Zealand. He confirmed his quality with a win over 2500m here three weeks ago where he overcame difficulty to win, getting badly held up and checked but got clear late and surged to win and win well. He’ll love getting to a truly run 2600m and really, only has to hold his form to be around the mark.

8 Youth Spirit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win for GaiBott. Looked like it would come three weeks ago here when he hit the front and was hailed as the winner, but had no answers for the finale produced by So Unusual. He’s fourth up from a break so he should just about be at peak fitness and he has the class/quality to measure up.

All things being equal, 8 What You Need (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be taking care of this lot. He is 2/2 to start his career, resuming with an absolute spank job win at this track/distance two weeks ago where he won like it was a barrier trial, going through his gears like a really nice horse, potentially a top class horse. Second up syndrome could be on the cards, but ability wise, he has a bit on this lot.

6 Kaygeebee (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality three year old for the Price/Kent camp. He won 2/2 to start his career in the Spring before being spelled. He resumed behind stablemate What You Need at this track/distance where he led and tried his guts out but he couldn’t quite finish it off and was simply no match. Has that run under the belt and that should hold him in good stead to run another positive race.

Reckon there is good speed here so looking for something strong late and 15 Tan Tat Magic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) fits that bill. Three runs for Gavin Bedggood have resulted in a couple of strong wins before racing down the straight two weeks back at Flemington and was very good from the back behind a potential star, What You Need. Can’t see her winning but can pinch a first four spot.

1 Cascadian (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I think, is a moral. His run in the All Star Mile last Saturday was absolutely enormous. Albeit he was fence in the run, he did a super job from the back and was very good to the line behind Mr Brightside. He is a gun seven day back up horse. He hasn’t run a bad race when on the back up and loves the 2000m, and loves Flemington. IMO, good luck beating him.

4 Nonconformist (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could have gone down the All Star Mile path but connections said no to the big money and want to get that Group l win. He resumed with a bang three weeks ago, spanking his rivals in the Blamey and landing decent bets at a price. He will love getting to 2000m and off the first up win, he rates quite highly as a key winning chance.

16 Virtuous Circle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be ticking along beautifully and should eat up the rise in trip. He was never a factor in the Australian Guineas but his last 200m was very good, looking like a horse that is being set for the Derby. He was favourite for the Derby in the Spring but stable cuddled him with this prep in mind. He has to rate as one of the hardest to beat.

Like 4 Cardinal Gem (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He resumed over 1200m here three weeks ago down the straight and was very good I thought in restricted room late in the piece behind Sessions Road, getting held up at a bad stage. Good second up record, should love the rise to 1400m and with J Childs getting back on, he makes plenty of appeal against this lot.

6 Not An Option (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is sneaky flying for Michael Moroney. He has finished behind Scallopini his past couple, both at this track/distance, the latest being the Shaftesbury Avenue where he was able to use the inside gate to advantage and battled on pretty well in defeat. Knocking on the door to win a race and I think he gets a great chance here.

10 Riddle Me That (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a 1400m specialist that is certainly good enough to take this out. Market said he was little hope when resuming in the Shaftesbury Avenue but despite never really being a threat, I thought he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Scallopini, beaten just over four lengths. If he can settle closer in the run, he’s good enough to take this out.

3 My Yankee Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can resume a winner. John Salanitri trained mare that is first up, having not raced since Jan 7 when pulling up lame at Sandown behind Worsfold after dead heating down the straight here but losing on protest. Has gone like a jet in both a trial and jumpout, Shinn is back on and provided the track isn’t too firm, she will be hard to hold out.

16 Stormbolt (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned in pretty good order for Cindy Alderson. He resumed over 1200m at Pakenham where the market said he was ready to go and he duly saluted, sitting on speed and giving his rivals an absolute spanking in a sharp display. Harder here, clearly, but good racing style, upside and form around him reads well.

Hard to knock the way 4 Bellinger (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is going at the moment. He is looking to make it three wins on the bounce, with the two wins coming at Morphettville, firstly on the course proper before a strong effort on the Parks track two weeks back, beating Chicago Storm, who was a dominant winner last Saturday, so the form has been ticked off. Leading contender.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 8 What You Need

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Cascadian

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 4 Cardinal Gem

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 8

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 4, 6, 10, 14, 15

Leg Four: 3, 4, 8, 16

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