The Spring Carnival in Melbourne really heats up this Saturday at Caulifield with a Group l double header, the Sir Rupert Clarke (1400m and Underwood Stakes (1800m), supported by two fascinating preludes to the Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:30) : The Alfred Hospital Plate (90) 1100m:
Back Me: Keen here on 4 Super Cash (Bet Now: $3.20). Very talented mare that performed at a high level during the Autumn, winning a Stakes race at Flemington before contesting some high class races. Latest jump out really caught my attention. She looked very good, going through the motions under no pressure. She is set for a big Spring.
Big Danger: 6 Magic Alibi (Bet Now: $4.60) is a mare who looks so well placed by the in form Gerald Ryan stable. She was unwanted in betting when resuming in the Sheraco (1200m) at Rosehill where for a few strides in the straight she looked home but was nabbed late by Heavens Above, who of course has form around Azkadellia, so that reads so well for this race, and she still remains on the minimum.
Roughie: 9 Mossin’ Around (Bet Now: $12.00) has had two runs this time in, both her behind Ocean Embers, and on both occasions she has had no luck. She was bailed away badly first up before going to the Cockram where she was caught wide no cover on speed and faded out of it. Give her better luck here and she can improve sharply.
Race Two (13:05) : Italktravel Harry White Classic 2400m:
Back Me: 8 The Bandit (Bet Now: $4.00) resumed at Moonee Valley and was a real eye catcher late when running a close up fourth to Vostok, beaten 1.4L. The stable were confident about his chances in the Naturalism last weekend but he didn’t gain a start. Looks really well placed here and should take some beating for sure.
Big Danger: 4 Assign (Bet Now: $5.50) resumed over 1700m at Flemington and did a very good in defeat behind Royal Rapture given he was back in the run in a race where leaders were advantaged. Second up last time in he won the Mornington Cup Prelude here, where he rolled along, and I hope that eventuates here.
Roughie: 2 Shimrano (Bet Now: $19.00) came here with big wraps on him as a Cups horse, but in all honesty, he was awful when resuming at Flemington behind Royal Rapture. To be fair, the trial at Cranbourne on Monday was nothing spectacular either, but he was hard ridden that morning, so he’ll be wound up here to do something…something positive for his connections hopefully.
Race Three (13:40) : Moniek Sambor The Importer Handicap 1700m:
Back Me: 4 Big Memory (Bet Now: $6.50) for me here in a really good race. He resumed over this distance at Flemington a fortnight and loomed to win the race but his condition just gave out late when running third to the low flying Royal Rapture. Trial prior was outstanding and he looks to have come back in fab order. He can improve off that and take this out.
Big Danger: 6 Mihany (Bet Now: $4.20) took full advantage of his lightweight and a lack of tempo when Bayliss pushed hard to lead and from there, if you were on, it was painless. Form out of that has held up through Raw Impulse bolting up in the Penang Trophy last weekend. He’ll be on speed again and giving plenty. Leading contender.
Roughie: 12 Our Century (Bet Now: $21.00) is such an interesting runner. Former Coolmore galloper that only had four starts, with the last being in 2014 at Ascot when second to Hartnell in the Queens Vase (3219m). The form around him is outstanding and though 1700m is short of his best, on form, he has the class and quality.
Race Four (14:15) : Inglis Cup 2000m:
Back Me: 3 Pay Up Bro (Bet Now: $2.70) looks close to a good thing here IMO. He has really turned the corner this prep, winning his past two starts in dominant fashion and on both occasions he has really attacked the line. 1400m to 2000m is a big leap, but he performed very well this time last year and this is a very winnable assignment, plus he is so well weighted.
Big Danger: 8 Kevin’s Time (Bet Now: $7.00) is a stablemate of Craven Image who led throughout on the Pakenham Synthetic last time out and absolutely bolted in under Brad Rawiller in what was a dominant display. 2000m is no issue and he does appear to have some upside left.
Roughie: 7 Craven Image (Bet Now: $8.00) didn’t look happy at all on the heavy track last start at Wodonga, but he got through it well enough to get the job done. That hard 1590m effort should see him cherry ripe for the 2000m assignment here and he is of course in the right stable.
Race Five (14:55) : Schweppes Thousand Guineas Prelude 1400m:
Back Me: 12 Sebring Dream (Bet Now: $6.00) resumed in the Atlantic Jewel and was clearly the best run of the race IMO. She was hopelessly bailed away on the turn until she eventually shoved into the clear and savaged the line for an eye catching fifth. She is a leading contender for the Thousand Guineas and the Oaks, but I am confident if the breaks go her way here, she can pick this up also.
Big Danger: 1 Whispering Brook (Bet Now: $2.60) made her Eastern debut in the Atlantic Jewel and she was brave on speed when second to Merriest. What I will say is that she had the on speed favours that afternoon, so she did have every right to kick on. The flow of money is strong for her, so I’ll respect that here.
Roughie: 5 I Am A Star (Bet Now: $8.50) shouldn’t entirely be dismissed here. She comes back to Melbourne after running in the Furious at Randwick where she was far from disgraced on the heavy track behind Foxplay, who franked the form last week. Draws to get good cover and ambush late, and she did beat some of these fresh.
Race Six (15:35) : Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas Prelude 1400m:
Back Me: I think you have to believe what you see with the Waterhouse/Bott trained 9 Evacuation (Bet Now: $6.50). I thought he was poison odds when resuming at Rosehill, but he sat on the tempo, then dashed right away like a really good horse to win by a space. Time was nothing flash, but you just had to love the turn of foot, which is something that most of these don’t have. If he gets the right run, the sharpness of him might be too good.
Big Danger: 1 Sacred Elixir (Bet Now: $8.00) is the horse we are all going to watch. He created a big impression during the Brisbane Winter, winning the J J Atkins like a horse destined to win a major in Melbourne. Jump outs have been encouraging without saying he has been sensational. Whatever he does here he will improve, but his class is there for us to see, and that could well be enough.
Roughie: Best roughie for me is clearly 8 Wazzenme (Bet Now: $15.00). I loved his run in the Danehill, where he sat back in a slowly run race. He took a bit to wind up, but his last 150m was excellent from a Caulfield Guineas perspective. He’ll eat up the extra furlong, back on his home track…ticks alot of boxes, and $15 looks overs.
Race Seven (16:15) : Yulong Park Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 6 Counterattack (Bet Now: $3.10) has been regarded by Chris Waller as a very good horse who has disappointed on GF day. Needs that Group l to seal his future and really, on face value, he won’t get a better chance here. Poor ride got him beat first up in the Theo Marks, getting badly held up before eventually peeling clear and lunging to just miss. First time at Caulfield isn’t easy, but he’s in the right stable and this is a thin Group l IMO outside one or two runners.
Big Danger: 9 Tivaci (Bet Now: $8.50) looked sharp at the jump outs prior to resuming in the Bobbie Lewis where he, like the winner and third horse, found the best ground, which was the outside fence, but he stuck on very well behind Faatinah. He has a really good second up and did beat Palentino second up last time in. That reads very well for a race like this.
Roughie: 13 Telopea (Bet Now: $26.00) looks the best roughie in the race. She comes through the Lets Elope where she just had too much to do from the wide gate and really, her run was enormous under the circumstances. Looked to trial very sharply at Casterton, tumbles down to 52kg, and she draws to get a lovely with cover and finish off late. Great each way chance at around $26.
Race Eight (16:55) : Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: I can’t believe $4.40 was on offer for 11 Lucia Valentina (Bet Now: $4.20) all in…in all honesty, if she runs up to her QE win, or even her first up run where she was alongside Hartnell behind Winx, she just bolts this up. That first up effort in the Warwick was outstanding and of course the form has been franked. Likes to be kept fresh and while I wouldn’t say the trial last week was inspiring, her class should be enough to take care of this lot.
Big Danger: D-Day looms for 8 Tarzino (Bet Now: $12.00) here, and whether or not he is a man or a boy. Eye catching first up effort here behind Black Heart Bart before being quite poor I thought in the Makybe Diva. He showed nothing really despite being a touch unlucky and nearer the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be. He is much better than that…I think. This run will tell us how serious of a Cups contender he is.
Roughie: 9 Tavago (Bet Now: $19.00) was the hard luck story in the Dato behind Awesome Rock. He copped the brunt of that interference and lost all momentum, but his last 75m and through the line was very good I thought. Looks to be ticking over nicely for the Caulfield Cup, but I think he can run a big race here.
Race Nine (17:25) : Mypunter.com Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Sheidel (Bet Now: $5.50) looked very sharp at the trials and jump outs prior to resuming in the McEwen where she had a nice run just off the speed and stuck on pretty well to run fourth another class mare Wild Rain. Should take good improvement from that and she is a Group l class mare at her best. The one to beat.
Big Danger: 11 Rageese (Bet Now: $5.50) is a big watch horse. Joined the Weir mid prep and it reaped big rewards with a dominant Stakes win during the Adelaide Carnival. The Casterton trial looked quite impressive to my eye, well weighted after the claim and now he has had a full spell/prep under the great man, he could be destined for great things.
Roughie: 4 Sea Lord (Bet Now: $51.00) is the very interesting runner engaged here. Steve Brown trained runner that hasn’t raced since Cup Day last year when winning the 1100m sprint race. In saying that, he did look very sharp in a recent Flemington jump out and he has a very good first up record. One to watch for sure.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 11 Lucia Valentina
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Pay Up Bro
VALUE: Race Three Number 4 Big Memory
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 11
Leg Two: 6, 9, 11, 12, 13
Leg Three: 11
Leg Four: 1, 2, 9, 11, 12
$50 Investment= 28.57% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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