Racing returns to Sportingbet Park this Wednesday, this time on the Hillside circuit. The weather is overcast, the track is dead and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:00) : Mitavite Maiden Plate 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Tricky maiden to kick the program off. Going for the Darren Weir/Brad Rawiller/Gerry Ryan combination in the shape of Musica Royale (Best Odds: $3.60), who caught the eye on debut at Donald with a fast finishing fourth after settling last in the run. Bigger track and extra 100m looks ideal.
Big Danger: Solar Bravo (Best Odds: $12.00) hasn’t been seen since finishing down the track over 1800m at Caulfield late last year, but has trialled really well in recent weeks , showing some dash, indicating he is certainly forward enough to run a decent race fresh.
Roughie: Golden Mane (Best Odds: $9.00) is having his first start as a gelding after two fair runs during the Spring. Looked okay in a recent Wangaratta barrier trial and is bred to be handy, so monitor betting moves.
Race Two (13:35) : Equiano- King Of Speed Handicap 900m Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Lady Trickster (Best Odds: $9.00) on top. I thought she was quite good on debut in the Gold Rush at Bendigo, finishing third to Eloping and Jarklin, both of which are Group class runners, so coming back to the midweeks against this lot, and getting well in at the weights, she should go very close.
Big Danger: Inferential (Best Odds: $9.00) was a touch unlucky when running fifth to Goldconda in a Stakes race at Caulfield back in November, getting held up badly in the straight. Wasn’t asked to do much in a recent Cranbourne trial, but on that run at Caulfield, she rates as a definite threat.
Roughie: Witless (Best Odds: $3.80) was okay on debut at the Valley when fourth to Japhils. Wasn’t 100% happy around the track either, so that adds a touch more merit to the run. On a bigger track now, so she is right in the mix.
Race Three (14:10) : Schweppes Handicap (70) 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Tear Gas (Best Odds: $3.30) for me. Showed some promise during the Spring, enough for Danny O’Brien to throw her in the deep end and contest the Wakeful and Crown Oaks. Outclassed there, but indicated she has come back in great order with an eye catching fourth first up behind Uranie. She got held up at crucial moments and had to stop/start, which isn’t her go. Up to 1700m, Chad sticks…I think she is one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: Roxanne Of Sydney (Best Odds: $10.00) got a long way back a couple of weeks back and did a really good job to finish as close as she did when a narrow eighth to Lady Lakshmi. She’ll appreciate the step up in distance and is one to watch.
Roughie: La Amistad (Best Odds: $5.00), the sister of the great Makybe Diva, worked home okay late in the same race Roxanne Of Sydney contested, but she was probably a bit more outpaced and just run off her legs. Will get better as the distances increase. Still rates as a chance.
Race Four (14:45) : Leveraged Media Marathon Handicap (84) 3600m Form Guide
Back Me: Two horse race for mine between Luck’s A Fortune and Inala Champ (Best Odds: $7.00). Given he has more upside, I’m going with the latter. He was excellent at Geelong last time out given he sat three wide all the way yet kicked hard when challenged and drew away from his rivals late. Take away Luck’s A Fortune, and this looks a pretty thin race.
Big Danger: Luck’s A Fortune (Best Odds: $2.60) finally broke his duck with a strong and determined win over the 3000m at this track a couple of weeks back. His win also had merit too because he did some early work. He’ll lap the extra 600m and is sure to be hard to beat.
Roughie: Campeao goes in as the third pick, but gee he is very hard to follow because he isn’t genuine, like last start when he cruised up to beat Luck’s A Fortune, but didn’t go on with it. Should run well, but I doubt he’ll win.
Race Five (15:23) : Slickpix Handicap (70) 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen here on A Littlebitofclass (Best Odds: $5.00). Her two wins from as many runs this preparation have been dominant, albeit what she has beaten is questionable. Still, the way she has done it has been impressive and should ping over from the wide barrier, lead and just about win.
Big Danger: Scarlet Billows (Best Odds: $15.00) is the really interesting runner here. She was very impressive during the Spring, winning two of her three starts before failing on Caulfield Cup Day. Wasn’t asked to do much in a recent Terang trial, but on class along, she rates highly.
Roughie: Sense Of Hite (Best Odds: $11.00) is in the same bracket as Scarlet Billows in terms of class. She has contested a stakes race in six of her seven career starts, with the other being a dominant Bendigo maiden win. The horses she has been alongside are real quality, including Minaj and Missy Longstocking.
Race Six (16:00) : Sportingbet Best Tote Plus 5% Handicap (78) 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: The good thing on the card for me in Taiyoo (Best Odds: $3.80), who has really come from nowhere in recent starts, bolting in at his past two over this track/distance. He spanked a stronger field here last start, and only rises 0.5kg. If he holds his form, he wins.
Big Danger: Wind Bender (Best Odds: $7.50) was excellent at her Melbourne debut when a narrow third at the Valley to Waldorf. Drops 2kg from that run, comes to a bigger track, fitter and gets an extra furlong. Should run well from the paint.
Roughie: Hero Master (Best Odds: $11.00) is absolutely flying for Peter Smith, and was quite dominant at Wangaratta last time out against a handy bunch of gallopers. He was put down to run at Albury during the Cup Carnival there, but connections have elected to tackle the harder race.
Race Seven (16:40) : Superior Food Services Handicap (70) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: This is the easiest race that I Am Titanium (Best Odds: $8.00) has contested for nearly seven months. He has tackled stakes company since a Geelong Synthetic win in August and has been far from disgraced. I like the drop back to midweek level. He probably needs a confidence boost, and I think he can get that here, than perhaps go to Adelaide and look for blacktype there.
Big Danger: Jade’s Boy (Best Odds: $6.50) just couldn’t accelerate with them when running fourth over 1200m at the Valley to Turquoise King. That was his first run in six weeks, so I am tipping plenty of improvement here and is sure to run well.
Roughie: Cafe Scientific (Best Odds: $15.00) was backed as if unbeatable first up at Yarra Valley, but missed the kick and was gone after that. She ran quite well considering and ended up in fourth, but the betting confidence there does suggest she has come back well and a win isn’t too far away.
Race Eight (17:20) : Le Pine Funerals Handicap (78) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Digitalism (Best Odds: $7.50) didn’t have much luck when resuming at Bendigo, getting caught wide and being forced to go back to last in a race dominated by the leaders. He races very well second up, and with the claim for Cartwright, he looks well placed.
Big Danger: Forget that Tips And Beers (Best Odds: $7.50) went around first up at Adelaide given he was four wide with no cover in a fast run race. Second up winner last prep and did finish fourth to Savvy Nature in The Vase on Cox Plate Day, so the class is there.
Roughie: Big watch on the Waller pair of Pythagorean and Uppercut (Best Odds: $6.00), both making their Australian debuts off the back of some good performances at the trials.
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Best Bet: Race Six Number 5 Taiyoo (Best Odds: $3.80)
Next Best: Race Five Number 1 A Littlebitofclass (Best Odds: $5.00)
Best Roughie: Race 7 number 1 I Am Titanium (Best Odds: $8.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4
Leg Two: 5
Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 9, 10, 16
Leg Four: 2, 7, 8, 15, 16, 17
$50 Investment = 46.29% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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