24/9/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Spring Classics Preview day

A solid eight race card has been set down for Flemington on Sunday for Preview Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out fourteen metres for the entire circuit.

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Not much of a race this so I’ll take a chance on 5 Speak (Bet Now:  $SP.00), a former UK stayer that makes her Australian debut for Michael Moroney. Her best form is at 2400m so 1800m is on the short side but what I will say is that 1800m fresh is a big tick in the sense that it is not a waste of a run, and with a couple of 1200m jumpouts under the belt, she’s had the grounding.

7 La Spezia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win for Jamie Edwards. This mare hasn’t been far away her past few, the latest run coming over 2100m at Sandown where she got dragged back from the wide gate and found the line well enough after trying to make a sustained run behind Crimson Light. Maps to settle much closer in the run and gets B Shinn.

1 Cyclone Sally (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a much better mare when she can get her toe in but she is a proven metro performer and comes here off a win, which was at Moe where she led throughout and credit to her, she was there to be beaten, but she found under pressure to fend them off and win. Last bit likely tests but she’ll give herself every chance.

Tricky race but I think 8 Sunday Buzz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth an each way throw at the stumps for Symon Wilde. This guy resumed over 1800m at Sandown last Wednesday where he was back in a race dominated by those on speed so while he was never a winning factor, he made up ground and was a definite pass mark. He likely has eyes on the Jericho Cup but I think Flemington 2500m, he’ll do no work and just keep finding the line.

2 Insulation (Bet Now:  $SP.00), ability wise, is the best horse in the race. The query is the trip, but does class/brilliance get him home? It got him home last time on the Parks track at Morphettville, along with being down in the weights, which isn’t exactly the case here, but the depth is on the thin side and he is a line finder.

1 Affordable (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs the Briedoake/Jenkins camp since racing over 2000m at Caulfield where he had a dream run in transit near the speed and was there to win at the top of the straight but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Frigid. Should land near the speed once again and off prior efforts, he should be around the mark.

1 Snow Patrol (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like he will eat up 1400m at Flemington. Both career runs have come over 1300m at Sandown, winning on debut in good style before not having much luck next time, getting held up at times when wanting to build the revs. Think he’ll get clear air this time around, room to move and build the revs, and he does strike a winnable race IMO.

5 Wolfy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in a similar boat to most engaged here where he needs to win this race to be any chance of getting into the Caulfield Guineas. He comes here off a win, which was a Sale maiden where Shinn rode him like he was a $1.10 chance and duly saluted. Form out of it has been strong and with upside, home track advantage, he appeals.

4 Gifted Gamer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems a big price. Patrick Payne trained three year old that debuted with an all the way win at Donald and while on paper, that doesn’t read great, the win had a bit of authority and he did it from the front. Bred to appreciate further, much further, so the fact he is so sharp early on in the career tells me he has above average ability.

2 Dancing Alone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. Bryce Heys trained mare that ran a few weeks back at Randwick where things didn’t go to plan for her and it ended up being an ugly watch behind Waverider Buoy. Think she is a mare who is best when having clear air to build the revs and momentum so if that eventuates here, she can bounce back.

7 Ray Magnerio (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is 2/2 to start his career for Griffiths/De Kock. Let down like a nice horse to win on debut at Pakenham on the Synthetic before going to Sale where he was impressive again from off the speed to make it back to back wins. Good test here against some likely types but beware the unbeaten horse.

1 Dio (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has run well down the straight before and is likely drawn the right part of the track out wide. Market wanted him with confidence last time at Sale and despite a few nervous moments he was too good for them. That was his first run in two months so with room for improvement, he is in with a shout.

4 Served Cold (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a bit on the short side but that said, I do think she has a bit on these. Progressive filly for Danny O’Brien that has done little wrong in two career outings. Caught the eye on debut at Sandown behind Autumn Angel before going to Geelong where she did work in the run but was still far too good for them in a sharp display. That was 1700m so 1800m no issue and maps ideally, plus gets B Shinn sticking.

John Sargent should always be respected with his runners in races like this so that’s why I am including unbeaten filly 3 Harlow Mist (Bet Now:  $SP.00). The two wins haven’t been by big spaces but what I have liked about the wins is the ticker she has shown to fend them off. 1800m is no issue and in the right camp, she commands respect.

6 Relentless Ruby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will land on speed and give them something to chase. She attempted to lead throughout in the Served Cold maiden mentioned above and did give a strong kick but was safely held late when third, beaten just under five lengths. Not sure I could back her to win, but for exotics, I can certainly entertain her.

5 Apulia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like he will eat up 1800m at Flemington and for mine is one of the better bets on the program. Dominant maiden win over 1500m at Cranbourne before staying at the trip at The Valley where he just took forever to wind into his work but was good late. Blinkers on, bigger track, 1800m, Zahra sticks…all points to him.

9 Too Big (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key chance. Team Freedman trained three year old that has done little wrong in two career outings. Debuted with a pretty gritty win at Seymour before going to Bendigo where he got back off the speed and was held up not getting room to move until it was race over but I did like the way he find the line when second. He’ll love 1800m at Flemington and is drawn out so he’ll get plenty of room to move.

7 Waverley (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout. John Sargent trains this three year old, who ran in a 1400m maiden at Hawkesbury last time where he got back in the run and did make up solid headway when second to impressive winner Fiddlers Green. He’ll eat up more ground here and with a drag into the race, I think he will be strong at the end.

7 Crackerjack Prince (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems the straight bat option. Archie Alexander trains this gelding, who has turned the corner in recent times, with racing at The Valley seemingly up his alley. He won there two back before racing there again where you can make a case that he should have won but just didn’t get a chance to build the revs. Bigger track, Childs on, he’ll do me.

9 Blazerro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates but he is racing well enough to say he can take this out. I was keen on him last time at at The Valley but after receiving every chance behind the speed he couldn’t quite finish the race off behind Place Of Gold. Bigger track I think will suit and with the right run in transit from off the speed, he can win.

10 Maktoob (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to the mile. He resumed a few weeks back over 1400m at Caulfield where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out, but he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Rheinberg. Much better set up this time around and has more upside than most.

6 Arnold (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me in the get out. Maher/Eustace trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since June 28 when having his first run for the new stable and stuck to the task well enough in defeat when second to noted swimmer Bigolino. Recent Bendigo jumpout was a pretty good piece of work and he strikes a very winnable race.

3 Tasman Park (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Michael Moroney trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since July 26 at Sandown where he attempted to lead throughout and giving a decent kick but was no match late for Presser, running another second. Recent jumpout was solid to the eye and first up at 1400m tells me there is some level of intent.

13 Picaroon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like she will win races under the care of Tom Dabernig after formerly being with Michael O’Leary. This mare resumed at Geelong where she got back to near last in the run and while she was never a threat, she did make up ground and was solid enough late in the piece behind Harbin. If she can settle closer in the run, she’ll be dangerous.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 2 Dancing Alone

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 4 Served Cold

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 8 Sunday Buzz

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 4

Leg Two: 5

Leg Three: 7, 9, 10, 15

Leg Four: 3, 5, 6, 11, 13

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