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The Tasmanian Racing Carnival concludes this Wednesday at Launceston with a bumper ten race card, highlighted by the $250,000 Group 3 Launceston Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

Launceston Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Launceston Cup

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Race 1. (12:55) Shedcorp Tas Maiden 1400m

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Back Me

Tricky maiden to kick off the program. 1 Lousville (Bet Now: $3.80) gets the nod though. He looks set up ideally to break the maiden status. He was a few weeks between runs and back to 1200m from 1400m last time out but found the line pretty strongly late when beaten narrowly by Crackerjack Lady. Blinkers on, back up in trip, drawn soft…think he’s the pony to beat.

Danger

8 Merv Decides (Bet Now: $2.90) is bursting to win his maiden. Backed with confidence when racing over 1400m at Hobart last start and worked home strongly from off the pace when second to impressive winner Fighting Frank. Has a tricky draw to overcome but if he’s within range on the turn, he’ll take some beating.

Long Shot

Like the rise in trip for 7 Incriminate (Bet Now: $17.00). He debuted in the Crackerjack Lady race mentioned above where he was back near last in the run and was never really a winning threat, but did make up ground and the run was a pass mark for the debut. Gets a rise in trip, in the right stable and interesting that they find Jeff Penza to steer.

Race 2. (13:30) Neville - Smith Forest Products Maiden 1200m

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Back Me

Remaining at 1200m is the knock with 14 Zeva Royale (Bet Now: $4.20) but it is hard to ignore her debut. Debuted at this track and she was one of the real eye catchers of the meeting, finishing off with purpose late in the piece when third to Fun’N’Frolic in a very good opening to her career. Just needs to be within range and think she wins.

Danger

1 Boris The Blade (Bet Now: $4.80) is a leading contender. Scott Brunton trained four year old that was five weeks between runs when racing over 1200m at Hobart when near the speed and fighting on strongly when third to Amancaya. You’d like to think there is room for improvement and is in the right camp.

Long Shot

9 Shake Your Tooshy (Bet Now: $12.00) is an interesting runner. Kirstin Paterson trained mare that is on debut off the back of two trials at Longord in October and December respectively, so interesting that he’s had a break from that last trial without a public hitout but she did look a nice type, so keen to see how she goes.

Race 3. (14:05) Kevin Sharkie Handicap (Class 1) 1200m

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Back Me

Looks a good race for 1 Hot Wired (Bet Now: $3.30), a Scott Brunton trained gelding that was scratched on Sunday to be saved for this. His last run came over 1200m at Hobart and worked home strongly late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Don’tbuckme Off. Gets an in form Blake McDougall to steer and the depth here, as a whole, is thin.

Danger

Big watch on 7 Blushed (Bet Now: $4.80), resuming for Leanne Gaffney. Has had four career outings, three of them on the turf, and has looked a good type. The one ordinary effort came last time on the Devonport Synthetic in a total forget run. Froggy is back on and has trialled well in readiness for her return.

Long Shot

3 Perkins (Bet Now: $17.00) has returned in pretty good order and is a knockout chance. Narrow win two back at this track/distance before stepping up to 1400m and working home okay without threatening. Think back to 1200m will be ideal for this gelding and should hold a forward spot from the gate.

Race 4. (14:41) Launceston Floorworld Handicap (70) 1100m

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Back Me

I’ll take a punt on 4 Julius (Bet Now: $2.30), resuming for Leanne Gaffney. Opening two starts resulted in impressive wins on the Synthetic at Devonport before having a let up and racing here when down the track behind Galenus. Resumes without a trial, but off what he showed in those two wins, he can take this out.

Danger

2 Bandinelli (Bet Now: $3.30) is a quality animal that is first up. He really put it together during the Spring, winning three on the bounce, with his last two coming over 1200m here. Has residual fitness being only ten weeks between runs and does have the right racing pattern to give himself every chance.

Long Shot

Best version of 5 Tezlah (Bet Now: $18.00) is certainly capable. Resumed at this track/distance two weeks ago and in a real sit/sprint, he wasn’t suited but liked the way he found the line late in the piece. Is a second up winner and with Winkers on first time, the intent is there to suggest he can take this out.

Race 5. (15:16) PFD Food Services Classic 1200m

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Back Me

3 Warrior Prince (Bet Now: $3.50) for me. Adam Trinder trained three year old that has been given a freshen up since contesting the Tasmanian Guineas at this track/distance when working home strongly from the back, finishing third to Snoop Dog. Reckon a fast run 1200m will suit and Blinkers on first time tells me there is intent to win.

Danger

1 War Correspondent (Bet Now: $1.95) is putting together a good little record. Has won three of seven with four runner up efforts to go with it. Resumed in the Carbine Club at Hobart where he was on speed and copping heat but he found plenty under pressure and was too good. You’d like to think he will take improvement off that and looks the likely leader.

Long Shot

2 Gee Gee Josie (Bet Now: $6.50) is an honest filly who should be thereabouts. That was the case in the Carbine Club where he was hunting up to hold the lead early but ended up going for cover and she was solid late in running third. Can she turn the tables on War Correspondent? Doubt it, but she’s honest.

Race 6. (15:51) Royal Rambo Quality 1200m

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Back Me

Most fascinating runner on the program is 1 Lim’s Cruiser (Bet Now: $5.50), who makes his Australian debut for Scott Brunton. Last raced in July 2019 when good in defeat in the July Cup at Newmarket behind Ten Sovereigns, who at the time was rated as one of the best sprinters in the world. Host of gear changes to get ready, no public trials…but surely he is better than this lot.

Danger

2 Blaze Forth (Bet Now: $8.50) is a beauty for John Blacker. Toughed it out strongly two back to win here and beat Mystic Journey before going to the Thomas Lyons when rolling in front at a very strong tempo and stayed on quite well I thought when third to Newhart. Back to 1200m I like, should roll forward and proving hard to get past.

Long Shot

7 Gee Gee Lanett (Bet Now: $4.50) is a very honest mare for Stuart Gandy that puts herself near the speed and gives her all. That was the case over 1100m at Hobart last time out when close up behind Liffeybeau. She should punch forward early, then get the drag up via Blaze Forth. Knockout chance.

Race 7. (16:26) Mowbray Stakes 1600m

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Back Me

Provided there are eight starters, happy to back 5 Sir Simon (Bet Now: $11.00) each way. Just found the 2400m of the Hobart Cup a bridge too far last time out despite getting a relatively soft lead and battled away pretty well late in the piece. Think back to 1600m suits and he should lead for fun, giving a bold sight.

Danger

Are we underestimating 2 Newhart? (Bet Now: $1.85) I thought he was just a Synthetic specialist, but he proved me wrong, giving Mystic Journey a proper spanking in the Thomas Adams. He was dominant and on the line, was getting away from the star mare. That was his first run in a month so fitter and up in trip, clearly appeals.

Long Shot

He’s not a long shot, but next best for me is 1 Mandela Effect (Bet Now: $3.70). Bit surprised they went down the Hobart Cup path and he ran accordingly, just failing to run out the trip behind Double You Tee. Much better suited at the mile where he has been most effective and he is the class runner of the field.

Race 8. (17:01) Launceston Cup 2400m

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Back Me

My eyes, nothing turns the tables on Double You Tee from the Hobart Cup. So it’s either him or different form. I’m going with different form and an up and comer in the shape of 12 Supalopo (Bet Now: $10.00). He earned his way into this race with a very impressive win in the Night Cup. Didn’t beat much, but he had to make around a 700m sustained run to get there so the merit in the win was high. Clearly his toughest test to date, but hard fit, in form, down in the weights and I think double figures/thereabouts is a fair enough price.

Danger

What do you do with 4 Runaway? (Bet Now: $5.00) Not many found him at Flemington last time out over 2000m given he is a jumper getting ready for the upcoming season. But, Blinkers and Olly went on and the improvement was sharp. Up to 2400m is no issue for him…can you trust what he did last time will be repeated?

Long Shot

8 Classic Weiwei (Bet Now: $7.50) is a tough customer for the McEvoy camp that can run well again. He seemed to have every chance in the Hobart Cup to wear down Double You Tee but that horse was too tough and too strong on the day. Froggy on is a positive because he’ll stand over him and make sure he knows he’s in a proper race.

Race 9. (17:44) Vamos Stakes 1400m

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Back Me

Forgive a good horse for one poor run and I’m doing that with 1 Deroche (Bet Now: $3.30). Winx like odds when she raced in the Bow Mistress at Hobart and seemed to get a decent run on speed but when pressure was applied, she found nothing and was plain. Vet found post race that she was stiff in both front legs, so a clear excuse. Saves her best for Launceston and think $4/thereabouts is a great price.

Danger

Great to see 2 Still A Star (Bet Now: $3.80) at the races. Oaks winner of last year that kicks off her All Star Mile prep, so think whatever she does here, she will improve on, but she does have class in her own right and has been given four trials to get ready, so the grounding is there to run a forward race fresh.

Long Shot

7 Runaway Girl (Bet Now: $35.00) is a first four contender. Not sure she is a winning threat because she was comfortably held by Ethical Solution in the Bow Mistress but she got a blacktype placing next to her name, so job done in that regard. Like her up in trip and could sneak a first four finish.

Race 10. (18:15) City Of Launceston Handicap (66) 2100m

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Back Me

This time next year, 7 The Risk Factor (Bet Now: $2.05) could be winning the 2022 Launceston Cup. He looks a really progressive staying prospect for Adam Trinder who has won his past two, both coming in at this track/distance and each time he has gapped them in impressive fashion. Harder here, but he looks more than capable of going on with it.

Danger

2 Elisavet (Bet Now: $7.50) is a mare that is flying at the moment. Was keen on her chances last start on Hobart Cup Day and under a lovely ride from Froggy, she was far too good for them. Her record says that she prefers Hobart to Launceston, but there was dominance about her last start. Hard to beat.

Long Shot

12 Rodessa (Bet Now: $26.00) is a knockout chance. This mare comes through the Elisavet race mentioned above at Hobart and she worked home well late in the piece without threatening. Her overall record is ordinary, so not sure I could back her to win, but she’s one for a first four ticket.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 7 The Risk Factor

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Lim’s Cruiser

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 12 Supalopo

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 8

Leg Two: 1, 4, 8, 12

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7

Leg Four: 7

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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