24/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, ATA Stakes day

6 Art Of Sabrage (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning in what looks a strong 3YO race. He debuted at this track/distance in a maiden and just produced sustained speed from the front in an awesome debut, running decent time in the process. Lands in front and should prove hard to run down.

1 Sky Duke (Bet Now:  $SP.00) backing up interests me. He ran last Saturday over 1200m here where he was on speed and in the run, he looked the only horse you wanted to be on. Looked the winner but was nabbed near the peg. He will ensure this is a truly run 1000m and if there is petrol left in the tank, he will look the winner at some stage I’m sure.

5 Hang Glider (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has good enough form to run well here. He is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance when back in a sit/sprint and couldn’t get involved behind Street Parade, who was given a 12/10 by J Mac in front. Think there will be more tempo this time around and he can bounce back.

4 Currimundi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Playing God for Steve Wolfe that resumes. He hasn’t raced since August 13 when a strong winner at Belmont, making it two wins on the bounce and I love horses that go out for a spell on a high. No public trial, so you are guessing with where he is at re fitness levels, but first up at 1400m in town tells me he’s forward enough to take this out.

8 Valency (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the W Pike tax, but she does look a worthy threat. Ran over this track/distance three weeks ago and didn’t really get the rub of the green I thought behind Trade War, who is flying at the moment. McNaught has ridden the mare in recent runs but clearly gets a big jockey upgrade and with clear air this time around, she’ll take beating.

3 Seeable (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a William Lewthwaite trained galloper that resumes. He hasn’t been seen since August 21 during the Kalgoorlie Carnival when close up in the Tatts Cup behind Shoot Ur Shot. That was the mile and for mine, 1600m sees him out. 1400m is his sweet spot and resuming at 1400m in town signals intent, so I’d watch the market and see what it does with him.

6 Lexington City (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems to be a flat track bully where it is seemingly lead or bust for him. Led two back and was able to win but couldn’t get the lead last time and he struggled to pick up in the straight when down the track behind Beads. Excels at the track/distance and if he finds the front, gets control, I don’t think they will get past him.

If they overdo it in front, 2 Cash Away (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the finale to blouse these. Bit on the plain side two back behind Burnya To Survive before backing up a week later and coming back to 1000m where he was near last in the run and rocketed to the line late in the piece behind Capital Flight, finishing third. There is a bit of depth to this line up but Pike on, he’ll sit back and launch at these late.

Very interesting runner is 3 Pink Carats (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Simon Miller. He had a two run Winter prep at Belmont and failed to fire each time, but I will say he found wet tracks each runa and he struggled to pick his feet up. Been given a good break, should find firmer footing here and his recent trial work suggests he’s come back in really good order, so watch the market.

7 Friar Away (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in enormous order and should prove hard to beat here. He resumed over the mile here three weeks ago and he was one of the better runs of the meeting, rocketing to the line late when third to Megazone. He’s normally a horse who gets better as the prep goes on so the fact he ran so well fresh tells me he’s in for a super campaign.

1 Big Bada Boom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found positive form…can he hold it? Ran over the mile a fortnight back where he lobbed on speed, a moderate speed, and had every chance to win, but credit to him, he was only nabbed late by Alsephina, who franked the form in the Starstruck. He’ll love getting to 1800m and the stable now gets Pike to steer so he has a bit going for him here.

3 Solaia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t won since Moses parted the sea, but I think she’s somewhat back on track. Ran in the Alsephina race from two weeks back where she was near last, wide with cover, and was never a threat given the race shape but was good to the line behind the Team Williams mare. If the inside gate is used to advantage, I think she will only run well against this lot.

8 Scorpion Stormz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) jumps straight to 1400m from 1000m but this is just a nothing race and it’s all upside with him. Ran down the straight at Pinjarra just under two weeks ago and he was very good from the back when third to Secret Statue, a proven Saturday metro horse. This guy himself has measured up in town before, much better suited at 1400m and gets C Parnham aboard.

3 Real Danger (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win one. Last few runs have come over 1200m here, the latest being a fortnight back where she loomed to win after receiving every chance in the run but found one better in a progressive animal, Hardly Ever. The claim for Dyson helps, as does the soft gate, and those factors will help her put the 1400m query to bed.

7 Elite Fighter (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has run well in town before and the way he’s going at the moment, he deserves another crack in town. He has been dominant his past couple, winning both, each of the wins being at Albany where he has found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win. There is a bit of depth to this line up but the way he’s going, a truly run 1400m will be no issue.

5 Brave Venture (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have come back in pretty good order. He resumed just over two weeks ago at this track/distance where he was one of the first off the hit in chasing down the leader but he got better as the race went on and drew clear late. Fitter, genuine, he should be around the mark.

1 Time Scale (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the right form around her to give this a shake. Three weeks between runs since resuming at this track/distance where she was on speed and toughed it out well in defeat when third to what I think is a future Stakes winner in Burnya To Survive. That form clearly reads well for this. Just needs luck from a tricky gate.

2 Hint Of Mint (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run an improved race at odds. She is three weeks between runs since contesting the Jungle Dawn where she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Buzzoom after getting back in the run. Drops miles in grade/depth here and I actually do think she is better suited at 1200m rather than 1400m.

All things being equal, 9 Burnya To Survive (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be winning again. He resumed three weeks ago at this track/distance where he won like he was a Group horse. Sat near last, waited, peeled out late and he rounded them up in a couple of strides in such an outstanding return. Only has to hold that form, never mind natural improvement, and he will be winning again.

12 River Rubicon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the main threat. Resumed four weeks ago at this track/distance behind quality filly Revitup where he was run off his legs early but picked up and was very good to the line behind the three year old. I don’t think the tempo will be as strong this time around and if he can settle a pair closer in the run, he has the engine to give this a shake.

5 Lorentinio (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give a sight at odds. He ran over 1400m here four weeks back where he was on speed and gave a solid enough kick but just couldn’t quite finish it off when down the track behind The Velvet Queen. Better suited at 1400m so you’d think this is a prep run, but if this track is playing up/in, he’s in with a knockout chance at a massive price.

8 Coolth (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to rock and roll and make a statement for the Perth Cup. He got the right run in transit but was still a strong winner here three weeks ago when too good for Queen Alina, who franked the form by winning last Saturday. This isn’t a strong race and he’s a horse who is improving with time since settling into WA.

1 Neufbosc (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the runs on the board to command respect. He ran a fortnight back in the Towton Cup and worked to the line pretty well without really threatening when third to tough nut Buster Bash. Ticking along nicely towards the Perth Cup and this should top him off.

4 Black Shadow (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another getting ready for the Perth Cup and I think he’s racing in okay form. Did a bit of work from a tricky gate in the Towton Cup last time and that early burn just told late when down the track behind Buster Bash. Doubt he wins but he can fill a first four spot.

I want to give 9 The Velvet Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) another chance. Both runs this time in have come over 1400m here, sprouting wings late to win fresh before racing two weeks ago and didn’t get the rub of the green in the straight when fourth to Billy Ain’t Silly, beaten just over a length. Like her with the rise in trip and drawn out, she should get clear air from the outset and be strong at the end.

11 Hardly Ever (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have come back in super order and looks like she will be fine at 1500m. Really caught the eye fresh behind Bitofmerit before stepping up to 1200m where she got a peach from Carbery and in a driving go was able to finish best, winning with something in hand to the eye. Yet to prove herself beyond 1200m but she relaxes in the run, which should ensure she gets the trip fine.

12 Casino Seventeen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been excellent in a couple of runs for Team Williams and third up from a spell, should just about be hard fit now. Latest run came two weeks back over the mile here and I thought he was really good to the line and you could argue a little unlucky not to win when a close up third to stablemate Alsephina, who bolted up last Saturday in the Starstruck. Hard to beat.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 9 Burnya To Survive

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Act Of Sabrage

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 7 Friar Away

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5

Leg Two: 9

Leg Three: 1, 5, 8, 9

Leg Four: 1, 3, 9, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

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