24/1/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Australia Stakes night

A strong eight race meeting has been assembled for Moonee Valley this Friday night, headlined by the Group 2 Australia Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Happy to back 1 Yulong Rising (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS), who I think is going really well for the Hayes/Dabernig team without winning. He ran over 2500m at the Valley a few weeks ago when working home well off a moderate speed when second to Play Me Now. Has good experience at this track, he’s in form and is bursting to win a race. Gets his chance here.

Hard to knock the way 3 Quality Seeker (Bet Now: $2.40 TOP ODDS) is racing at the moment. Just rising in trip is the little knock with him given he has raced at 2400m at his past couple and hasn’t quite savaged the line, the latest coming three weeks ago on the Kenso track when doing a power of work in the run and was very game in defeat when second to Dark Pearl. Hard fit, in form…just whether or not he has the speed in the legs, but Mr Clarify should make it a good gallop.

The race does have a tail to it, so next best is 4 Pissaro (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) and he does somewhat interest me. Got the overs about him last Saturday and thought he ran well, but just lacked the killer blow to finish it off behind High Bridge. Gets Olly on, backs up straight away and does find a thin race. Just has to contend with the 5kg weight rise.

7 Baaqyah (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) on top for me. The Hayes/Dabernig stable trains this filly, that has placed in both career outings that were during the Spring and I think each run will come via strong form references, namely with Tagaloa. Loved the way she went in her Tatura trial and though a bit unknown with several first starters here, she looks above average.

5 Valaquenta (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a Street Boss colt for James Cummings that is on debut. This youngster has had just the one jumpout at Flemington in readiness for start one, which saw him back in the field and a bit green but he balanced up, he looked to lengthen quite nicely. Stable should always be respected with their youngsters so watch the market, and worked well here on Monday.

11 Queen Ryker (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Exceed And Excel having start one for Team Snowden. This girl trialled last Tuesday at Pakenham and looked to move pretty well I thought when second to Drone Strike in fast time, beaten under a length. Has the inside gate to do no work from and Jye McNeil is the form rider in Melbourne at the moment.

Looks to be good speed here, which should suit the Will Clarken trained 3 I Am Incredible (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS), who hasn’t raced since December 21 at Gawler when on speed and tiring late behind White Kaps. Interesting the Tongue Tie goes on, so assuming something was amiss at Gawler. He’s better when ridden with a sit, which is what should happen here.

4 Written Choice (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) does race best when leading and rolling, so the booking of Olly tells me there is intent. Hasn’t raced for just under a month since racing at this track/distance when on speed and tiring late behind The Centaurean, but was found to be lame post race. Better luck this time around and he can clearly win.

10 Definia (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Von Costa De Here for Gwenda Johnstone that resumes. This bloke is a beauty and has been for the stable for a number of seasons. Interesting to see what they do from gate one whether they hold up or take a sit. Liked the way he went in a recent Bendigo jumpout and can surprise at odds.

8 Waltonia (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a Luke Oliver trained mare that had been trialling up really well prior to resuming over 1000m at Echcua where she was backed as if unbeatable and the bets were landed as she raced away after sitting off the speed. Fast run short course races seem to be her go in life, so I think she’s hard to beat against these.

Taking a punt on 2 Sei Stella (Bet Now: $2.45 TOP ODDS), a speed demon for Matty Dale that resumes. This mare hasn’t raced since June 22 at Randwick on a wet track when struggling to pick her feet up behind Spiritual Pursuit. Dry track, short course racing, is her set up, which is here. No public trials, but I’m sure has had a jumpout or two at Canberra in readiness for her return.

6 Doves Cry (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) can improve and run well here at odds. Lovely ride from off the pace saw her win two back at Cranbourne before going to the 1000m here just under four weeks ago when wide no cover in a total forgive behind Exquisite Beauty. Sits off a fast speed here you would assume and McNeil remains on.

2 Rocking Eagle (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Michael Moroney trained three year old who sprouted wings late to win at this track/distance two back before racing down the Flemington straight and running well again but no answers late for the finale produced by Remastered. If he produces what he did to win here two back, he’s the one to beat.

8 How Womantic… (Bet Now: $1.55) just how good is she? Loved the way she dug in when required to win on debut at Geelong before going to Caulfield a few weeks back when well supported and the bets were landed as she sat off what looked a good speed and charged clear late. Heading in the right direction this girl and no reason why she can’t make it 3/3.

Don’t know yet how good 7 Modear (Bet Now: $9.50) is but all you can do is win and that is what she’s done in two runs this time in. Big win from the back first up at Echuca, then proved it was no fluke with an electric finish from the back to win down the Flemington straight. if she holds her form, she’s going to take a power of beating.

6 Beauty (Bet Now: $3.00) gets one last look. Thought she was good first up at Caulfield on Boxing Day when a narrow second to Ginger Jones before racing down the Flemington straight and just racing that touch flat behind Messerschmitt. Up to 1200m I like and her last win did come at this track/distance on Cox Plate Day 2018 when winning the Crockett.

3 Good Therapy (Bet Now: $5.00) cost himself a chance at the Valley last time out when he jumped awkwardly but his run despite that was very good and he wasn’t beaten far. There seems to be decent speed in this race and if they go quick he looks the horse who will be swooping late.

10 Vungers (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Brendon Hearps trained gelding that resumes and he does have a liking for the Valley so he’s certainly one to watch. Talented animal when right, he can pull out a decent run fresh and was given a good hit out when winning a recent Bendigo jumpout, plus Brad Rawiller does get on well with him.

The biggest query on the meeting is 9 Microphone (Bet Now: $5.50), a classy three year old for James Cummings that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since the Roman Consul when third to Cosmic Force, and a key reason why he failed there is because he made sure everyone knew he was a colt. Trial in Sydney was poor, but the blinkers went on in a jumpout and he looked much better, leading throughout. I’m banking on the blinkers sharpening him right up for this.

1 Hey Doc (Bet Now: $2.30) is the class runner of the field with the runs on the board and he looks spot on. Hasn’t raced since giving them a caning in the Winterbottom at Ascot in a brilliant showing of sustained speed. Worked brilliantly earlier this week and from gate one, he should hold and prove very hard to run down.

8 Embrace Me (Bet Now: $15.00) can be a sneaky first four chance I feel. Danny O’Brien trains this mare, who resumed over 1100m down the Flemington straight and you could make a case that she should have won. Just didn’t get the clearest of paths and should have finished closer, perhaps even won the race. Clearly harder here, but she looks to be flying.

5 Classic Weiwei (Bet Now: $3.00) is a son of Shamus Award for the McEvoy camp that resumed over the mile at Flemington on New Years Day and was a real eye catcher, warming to the task with purpose late to run a close up third to Heavenly Emperor. Does he want further? I think so, but a truly run mile will be up his alley also.

10 Manhattan Arch (Bet Now: $5.00) can bounce back here. He ran over the mile at Flemington last start where he was tucked in behind the speed before getting the inside split, but the inside that meeting was quicksand, so want to be forgiving of that failure behind Heavenly Emperor. Gets good weight relief and drops a bit in overall depth despite rising in grade.

1 Royal Music (Bet Now: $14.00) is looking for further but has the talent to go close against these. Paul Preusker trains this Australian Bloodstock galloper, who resumed over 1700m at Warrnambool when back in the run and never really a winning threat, but didn’t finish his race off too bad in a race which was much stronger than this. Gets back, will run on and be the flashing light for next time. Include in exotics.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 7 Baaqyah

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Yulong Rising

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 8 Waltonia

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 8

Leg Two: 5, 6, 10, 12

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 8, 9

Leg Four: 5

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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