23/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Cranbourne

10 Tino’s Daughter (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top to start the meeting. Jerome Hunter trained filly that is on debut and she has had a strong grounding with several preps, spanning back to the Autumn. She’s had two jumpouts this time to get ready for start one and has won them both in impressive fashion. Should land in a good spot from the gate and overall, the depth here looks to be on the thin side. Happy to be in her corner.

2 Hoofs Don’t Lie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. He was a short priced favourite when resuming at Moe and I thought he had every chance on speed, finishing a narrow second to Bahama Bay. Has Thron Bone form and of course Giga Kick form, which is heads and shoulders above everything else. The query is he might be a bit of a speedy squib, so he could be suspect late, but on form, he will look the winner at some stage.

5 Garnet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver at a big price. Street Boss that debuted at Bairnsdale where she was very raw and new to the caper, doing plenty wrong behind Miss Magnifico, who was a dynamic winner, so I think the form reads well enough for this, and with Winkers on to sharpen her up, I think a forward showing is definitely a possibility, and $71+ seems a crazy price.

11 Shakattak (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is clearly the one they have to beat. Clinton McDonald is doing a good job with his younger lightly raced horses and he has this guy going around for start two after an eye catching debut at Wangaratta where he got a mile out of his ground but loved the way he found the line despite having little luck when fourth, clocking some of the best late splits of the meeting. B Melham aboard now, home deck, hard to beat.

7 King Valley (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the pick of the first starters and is trained on the track. Greg Eurell trains this son of Cluster and he has been strong in a couple of jumpouts to get ready for start one. He was ridden right out to win the latest, but he did respond nicely, and that is what you like to see from an unraced horse. He looks like a horse who will need encouragement so I love the booking of J Mott.

12 Think Rock (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1200m again. He raced over 1300m here two back when wide no cover for the trip so forget he went around. He then went to 1100m at Moe where they eased back for cover and was good late without threatening behind Bahama Bay. Newitt sticks and if he can use the inside gate to advantage, I think he could be a sleeper at a price.

4 Elly Dee (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the right form line to give this a shake. John Sadler trained mare that debuted at Mornington when wide no cover for the trip before being forced wider and was entitled to knock right up but she kept finding and stuck on very well when second to Musashi, who has won again since in dominant fashion and is likely Hong Kong bound, so that form, I am confident, will stand up here.

9 Nunthorpe (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Playing God on debut for Peter Moody. Very rare that you see his progeny here in Victoria but with this stable, you always have to respect their first starters. Her jumpout work at Pakenham has been more than encouraging and this stable when combining with J Kah is certainly a combination that is lethal, especially on a Friday night meeting at Cranbourne.

1 Angel Of Boom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) creates interest. Formerly with Team Corstens, he now finds himself with former jockey Dylan Dunn and will be the first runner for him. He has good form around him when last in work and he went well in a fast jumpout at Mornington. Tricky gate to overcome, but he looks one of the better chances from a race brigade perspective. Knockout chance.

Staying at the mile I hate with 9 Crimson Light (Bet Now:  $SP.00), but she is the one with good upside in the right camp. She ran over the mile two weeks ago at The Valley where she wasn’t suited at all by the tight track and racing in restricted room, but was good late when clear behind Lady Jones. If this was 2000m, she’d be an early Christmas present, but staying at 1600m, she’s still the one to beat.

1 Bob The Horse (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had a few chances to break the maiden tag but is honest and should be thereabouts. That was the case in the Lady Jones race mentioned above where he was near the speed and battled away pretty well in defeat to run second. Draws tricky but should slide forward to sit on speed and with hard fitness under the belt, he’ll take running down.

Fitter and up to the mile are two big ticks for 5 Chambers Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He was backed with confidence when resuming at Hamilton but he was just a bit one paced when asked to go and took a while to wind into his work when third to Nightfox. The mile looks ideal for him and despite drawing tricky, he’s one of the main threats if Crimson Light is off her game.

First up at the mile tells me that 6 Prince Of Rome (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is ready to rock and roll. He hasn’t raced since May 18 at Ballarat when leading up a small field and giving a very good sight but just couldn’t quite finish it off and was nabbed late by a subsequent city class mare, Parisian Dancer. Jumpout work has been solid enough to my eye, should find the front and up/in will be no disadvantage.

3 Jaffastock (Bet Now:  $SP.00) finds a moderate race and has home track advantage so you’d think he is close to D-Day. He ran at Sandown last Wednesday where he was kept pretty safe in betting and I thought had every chance to win, finishing midfield behind Ima Shelby. This race is seriously lacking on the depth side of things and if he’s going any good, he will take beating against this lot.

12 Luna Diva (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate the serious drop in depth for Team Snowden. Ran last time out at the midweeks at Sandown and was solid in defeat from just off the speed behind a very progressive galloper, Hard To Cross. Ran well the start prior behind another promising horse, No Drama, so the form around her does read well for a moderate 64 here.

10 Senegalia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Street Boss for the Maher/Eustace camp that resumes. She hasn’t raced since May 19 when winning her maiden at Stawell by over five lengths and was spelled straight after. Love horses that go to the paddock on a high and her jumpout work has been very strong. Likely sits off a genuine speed, she’ll get every chance to finish over the top.

1 Mutinous (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. He has been outstanding his past couple, the latest being a 955m at The Valley where he scorched around the Moonee Valley turf and smashed the clock in an outstanding display. I don’t think 1000m will be an issue for him and with his racing style, he is clearly going to take beating against this lot.

2 Obsessive Nature (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rises a fair bit in grade/depth but he is absolutely flying for Craig Blackshaw and deserves a crack here. His last two starts/wins have come at Moe, sitting back and launching late to win two back before a solid on speed win last time. Both of those wins have come at 1000m. He was nominated for Saturday at The Valley over 1200m but instead comes here and appeals.

2 Meiner Legacy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the second good thing on the card. Aaron Purcell has this guy absolutely flying this time in. Ran over 2400m at Sandown two weeks ago and I thought he kept finding the line really well when a close up fourth to Never Again, beaten a couple of lengths. Looks like he will be suited at 2600m and with Blinkers first time, lack of depth, he’s clearly the one to beat.

4 Dubai Moon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good record at the track and is consistent, usually around the mark. That was the case over 2520m here last time out and he stayed on soundly in defeat when second to Lofty Star, who had a class edge and a suck run on speed. 2600m should be fine and does no work from the gate, so he rates as one of the main contenders, and I am surprised he is double figures.

1 Alienated (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the seven day back up after racing last Friday night over 3000m at The Valley where he got back in the run and was never a factor when down the track behind Eaton. The ride was very negative and was just never in the contest. Hopefully can use the inside gate and settle much closer in the run. His best is certainly good enough to be dangerous.

I think you just have to hope and take the double figures about 1 Kailash (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who is having start two in Australia. His Australian debut came during the Winter at Sandown on a bog and finished down the track behind Jungle Edge 2.0, Fengarada. He has looked pretty good in a couple of jumpouts and although 1400m is on the short side, his UK form does read well for a moderate Class One.

4 Ruggiero (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the hardest to beat. Mitch Freedman trained gelding that ran at Sandown at the midweeks last time and was never really a threat but loved the way he found the line late behind a Stakes class horse of the future, St Lawrence. That was his first run in a few weeks so he has room for improvement and he’ll be hard to beat if he’s within range on the turn.

Market watch for sure with 2 Black Penn (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Greg Eurell. He hasn’t raced since January 2 at Cranbourne over the mile when down the track behind Buckland Abbey. Couple of jumpouts last month to get ready for his return and is a horse who can sprint well fresh. Being kept safe in early betting, watch it closer to jump time and see what it does.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 11 Shakattack

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Meiner Legacy

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 1 Kailash

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 6, 8, 12

Leg Two: 1, 10

Leg Three: 2

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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