23/10/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Geelong, Geelong Cup day

Not entirely dropping off 4 Olympic Oath (Bet Now: $2.80) for the Lindsey Smith team. Was keen on him running well in the Super Impose but he just did a bit too much wrong and was never really a winning factor behind Warning. His run prior in the Derby Trial behind stablemate Adelaide Ace was quite good and a repeat of that effort would see him be around the mark.

He’s running out of chances is 2 Vellaspride (Bet Now: $2.20) but surely a win is close? Just found Shepard a tad too good two back at Mornington on Grand Final Day before going to Bendigo where he loomed large to win but couldn’t quite get past The Delphi, but likely wins in another stride, so he’s very close to a win and once again, he gets a great chance here.

1 Etna (Bet Now: $9.00) is going well this prep for Aaron Purcell. Gave them an absolute spanking to win two back at Mount Gambier before going to Morphettville where he was back in a slowly run affair and had to make a long sustained run. Was there to win 200m out, but he just ran out of puff. Not sure I could back him to win here, but he’s a must for exotics I think.

Giving the nod, just, to 6 Maclairey (Bet Now: $3.10). On face value, he was disappointing last time out on Cranbourne Cup Day behind Strategic Phil, but given the very slow tempo, and he was back, he was never really a winning chance. The two runs prior were suggesting that he was building towards a win, and I think 1700m on the bigger track with a more genuine tempo is a good set up.

One more chance for 3 Ridgewood Drive (Bet Now: $4.60) before penning him for life. Track pattern against him two back at Flemington before going to Bendigo where he got back and was never really in the hunt behind Zouy’s Comet. He was so impressive when winning at Flemington in the Autumn and if that version turned up here, he’d win. But haven’t really seen it yet for a while.

4 Midas Prince (Bet Now: $5.00) has returned in really good order for Aaron Purcell. Wide no cover fresh at Coleraine when third to impressive winner Fabian’s Spirit prior to racing over the mile at Ballarat where he got cover from a tricky gate and in a driving go, finished best to score. 2000m+ is when he’ll come into his own, but he’ll be strong late at the end of a truly run 1700m.

Tricky race but in the corner of 7 Bold Missile (Bet Now: $8.50). He ran over 1100m at Ballarat last time out when getting back in the run despite drawing a good gate and made ground but never really threatened behind Marcel From Madrid. From gate one, I’m hoping Ben Allen can take advantage of that and sit the horse closer in the run. If that happens, he can win this.

4 Chicago Cub (Bet Now: $2.70) has been pretty good in two runs back from a spell for Michael Moroney. Tough, gritty win first up at Bendigo before going to Ballarat where he was just off the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite get the win when third to Marcel From Madrid. Third up, so he should be at peak fitness now and the rise to 1200m does look an ideal recipe.

6 Toolbar (Bet Now: $9.50) is a son of Barbados that was relatively safe in betting when resuming over 1200m at the Valley and I think just pen the run given he was wide no cover for the trip on speed and just felt the pinch late behind Ambleve. He is a second up winner and had trialled well leading into that, so have to give him another chance in what looks a winnable race.

4 Blue Tycoon (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained gelding that comes here off the back of some nice efforts. Gave them a spanking to win two back at Swan Hill before going to Benalla where he was off speed and chased hard all the way when fourth to an in form Bravo Tango. He can sit just off a good speed from the inside draw and prove very hard to beat.

The query will be can 5 Gimme Strength (Bet Now: $6.00) repeat the dose? He was unwanted in betting when resuming at Swan Hill but after sitting on speed, he was clicked up by Coffey and gave them an absolute spanking, winning impressively and running decent time. Can he improve off that? That was impressive, but you’d think he will need to improve in order to win.

3 Big Reel (Bet Now: $6.00) is hot and cold, but his best is certainly good enough. Far from disgraced over 955m fresh at the Valley behind subsequent Stakes winner Humma Humma before going to Hamilton where Dylan Dunn just let him run and he absolutely bolted in, winning by a space and running time. Looks the leader and will take some running down I think.

5 Gina’s Hope (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented mare for Mitch Freedman who have I thought for a couple of preps could graduate to this company and she gets a test here. Comes here off the back of a strong win at Ballarat when off the speed and took a while to get going, but finished off with absolute purpose to win. Gets back, will need luck, but she has the talent to run well.

2 Into The Abyss (Bet Now: $1.65) has her confidence up and she could well go on with it. She had been tested at Stakes level since day one pretty much until last start when dropping to benchmark grade at Warwick Farm and despite lumping 60kg, she absolutely bolted in. That could be the confidence boost she needs and graduate back to Stakes company. Hard to beat.

6 Nicconi Poni (Bet Now: $46.00), given the lack of depth here, has to be rated as a chance. This mare was completely unwanted in betting when resuming at Goulburn where she was back off a good speed and presented to win but just found Godolphin mare Ariege too good. The small field, inside gate set up looks good for her…the lack of depth sees her as a knockout chance I think.

8 Impi (Bet Now: $2.80) can beat Harbour Views. He too looks a good horse in the making for Pat Carey. He resumed on Grand Final Day at Mornington when near the speed before being clicked up and showing really good change up speed to get the job done. He’ll eat up 1500m, has plenty of upside and will potentially sit in front of Harbour Views and have a head start.

2 Harbour Views (Bet Now: $1.70) is the key threat, and only threat. Looks an exciting prospect for Matty Williams who is 4/4 to start his career. Resumed over 1400m at Caulfield on Underwood Day when back and wide, but cruised to the leaders in the straight and kicked away to win like a really good horse. Heading in the right direction…just the wide gate is the query.

Back in trip should suit 3 Hunamosa (Bet Now: $31.00). He looked a good thing last time out in the Sheep Hills Cup at Warracknabeal last time out but he just went way too keen in the run and had nothing left for the straight in behind Tre Dieci. 3/4 at around this distance range which I like…doubt he wins, but for multiples, I think he’s a lock to run either third or fourth.

11 Supernova (Bet Now: $5.50) needs to win this to be any chance of getting a spot in the Melbourne Cup field. He’s a talented animal for Team Hawkes who tried to get into the Cup field by winning the Bart Cummings and was given a 12/10 steer by Dunn but was no match for Surprise Baby. I reckon Team Hawkes have this bloke here for a reason and confident he can get the job done.

8 Steel Prince (Bet Now: $5.50) looks to be going super for the Freedman camp and is ticking over beautifully towards the Melbourne Cup. Has been ridden negative in both runs back from a spell, with eyes towards the Cup, but he has hit the line with purpose each run. Getting out to a more idea trip now and from the gate, he can settle a bit closer in the run this time around.

I think 10 True Self (Bet Now: $5.00) shouldn’t be underestimated. Willie Mullins trains this mare, who was thought of as jumper early on in her career, but made the transfer to flat racing and she has been excellent, her last run coming in the Ebor and while she ran sixth, you can make a case her run was the best in the race given she was wide most of the way, covering ground, in a fast run race. Melbourne Cup is her goal, so 2400m is short of her A1 trip, but always have to respect Willie Mullins.

On breeding, he should eat up 2200m, and the way the stable is going at the moment, I’m in the corner of 3 Relucent (Bet Now: $4.20). Despite being a maiden, he has the talent under the hood to run well here. Track pattern beat him two back at Canterbury prior to racing at Warwick Farm where not much went his way but was good late behind a good one in Aspect Ratio. On breeding, 2200m is fine and should take some beating.

4 Southern Moon (Bet Now: $3.00) looks a key chance for the Derby. He was good in the Derby Trial behind Adelaide Ace before going to Donald where he looked similar to Winx in terms of a good thing and won like her, winning with absolute ease yet still ran impressive late splits in doing so. Big track, 2200m upside and Melham on, there’s plenty to like about him.

6 Jayrod Too (Bet Now: $46.00) is the interesting runner. Been keen on him for a little while but for the most part has been disappointing. That changed last time out under the lights at Cranbourne when stepping up to 2000m in a maiden and under a lovely ride from Callow, he was too good. Wouldn’t be a 3YO Spring without Robbie Laing having a progressive stayer. This bloke looks it.

3 Living The Dream (Bet Now: $3.00) for me. The Mitch Freedman stable is having a good run at the moment and this bloke comes here off the back of a maiden win over 1400m at Ballarat on Hotham Day when just off the speed and wide, but cruised to the front early on in the straight and gave a good kick under Yendall to win. Tricky race, but think he can measure up.

4 Almighty Gold (Bet Now: $6.00) is a handy gelding for the Gelagotis team who was unwanted in betting when resuming on Bairnsdale Cup Day when wide in the run, doing plenty of work, and just felt the pinch late when fourth to Muswellbrook. Zahra takes the ride, fitter, draws a good gate and provided that run hasn’t busted him, I think he’ll take some beating here.

The speed map looks favourable for 7 Exalted Lauretta (Bet Now: $11.00) so I reckon she’s one for multiples. She ran at Murray Bridge last Friday when on speed and copped pressure, just feeling the pinch late when fourth to Bolt I Am, who has been knocking on the door to win. Looks to get a relatively soft lead and if she can get a cheap furlong or two, she’s hard to beat.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 Relucent

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 11 Supernova

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 7 Bold Missile

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 8

Leg Two: 3, 8, 10, 11

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7, 11

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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