22/9/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

A bumper eight event program has been set down for Flemington on Sunday for Preview Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out fourteen metres for the entire circuit.

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2 Caesar Cipher (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a nice three year old on the up for James Cummings. Not sure what he beat on debut at Benalla but he was quite dominant I thought, getting better as the race went on to win over 1200m. Off that, the rise to 1400m is ideal, home track advantage and good upside/improvement.

3 Vino Grande (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an Archie Alexander trained colt that has returned really well. Real eye catcher on debut at Donald before going to Pakenham Synthetic when first up, was ridden with intent and in a driving go, he was too good. I think he’ll be better horse with a bunny to chase, a more patient steer, so he commands respect.

4 Athanatos (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is still a maiden but he is horse with talent. I thought he did a good job in defeat in a 1300m maiden at Bendigo last time, getting off speed and spotted the leader/winner too much head start but his finale in defeat was quite good when second to Rue De Royale. Not sure I could back him to win but one for exotics.

3 Le Mans (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a near good thing IMO. Price/Kent trained former UK mare that has been strong in two runs down under, really catching the eye fresh at Sandown before going to The Valley where she wasn’t 100% happy on the tight track but she stayed on and wasn’t too bad in defeat. The rise to 1800m on the bigger track, hard fit, she takes a power of beating against this lot.

6 Lievore (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a slight query at 1800m but she is a genuine mare for Nikki Burke and does appear to have some form of upside given she was four weeks between runs when racing just over a fortnight back at The Valley when just off the speed and came with a well timed run, just missing out on the win. Upside, can settle forward, takes beating.

5 Perfetto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a former French mare who looks like she is appreciating life down under. Australian debut came over the mile at Sandown where she bumped into a potential star, Federer, and did stay on well enough despite being well held. Fitter and up in trip, she is in with a shout.

6 Dillian (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take a power of beating here I say for Ciaron Maher. Sneaky good run from him at The Valley behind Aspen Colorado before going to 2040m two weeks ago and he was one of the real eye catchers of the meeting I thought behind Lincoln Rocks. If he can settle closer, be within range, he’ll take holding out.

16 Demarcay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) brings solid enough NSW form for Chris Waller and I dare say commands respect. He ran over 2260m at Newcastle last time out where he was a bit on the one paced side when asked for the effort but he stayed on and was pretty good in defeat behind a handy galloper, Fun Sunday. 2500m is fine and stable should be respected when they come to Melbourne from Sydney.

13 Way Up High (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one to be entertained for exotics. This mare ran over 2400m at Sandown last time where she got into a decent spot just off the speed before angling into clear and was there to win. Lacked change up speed but stayed on and was good in defeat. Not sure she wins, but can run top four.

7 Hughes (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. Price/Kent trained gelding that comes here off the back of a midweek win at Sandown where he got into a sweet sit in transit before angling for clear air and finished strongly, but only just got there in a tight finish. Strikes a winnable race, maps perfect, the one for me.

4 Eye Of The Eagle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. John McArdle trained gelding that resumed over 1300m at Sandown where he gave them a start and a beating, letting down with purpose late in the piece to wear down Sunset Dreaming, who won on Wednesday to frank the form. Good upside, he appeals.

14 He’ll Rip (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver for Team Corstens. He resumed at Geelong where the market said he may need the run. He landed on speed and tried his guts out but first up, condition just gave way late in the piece behind Persian Spirit. Fitter and up in trip, home track, he runs well.

10 Our Paramour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Mark Walker trained filly that debuted over 1300m at Cranbourne and it’s rare to say that B Shinn slaughtered one but he gave this filly none, getting into a bad spot off the speed and was never a factor, having no momentum and did a big job to get as close as she did. I think the rise in trip sharply is interesting but she is bred to eat it up.

1 Slick N Quick (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the key prospects. This filly has done a good job in NSW, winning her maiden in impressive fashion two back at Hawkesbury before going to Kembla where she seemed to have every chance in transit but just couldn’t quite get there when third to Tip Top Timing. Back to her own age/sex, she appeals.

John Sargent rarely gets it wrong when he brings a filly to Melbourne so I think you have to respect 6 Inevitable Truth (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She hasn’t been too bad in two runs back from a spell. Game second fresh on heavy ground at Scone before going to the mile at Wyong where she got off speed and kept finding the line without threatening. The rise in trip I like, as do getting to a big track.

4 Lavalier (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1800m for James Cummings. He comes through a 1500m at The Valley from just over four weeks ago. He got off speed and not sure he was entirely happy around the tight track but he kept finding the line in a good effort behind Evaporate, who has won since. Fitter and up to 1800m, he takes beating.

6 Lario (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in really good order. Danny O’Brien trained three year old that was backed with confidence when resuming over 1500m at Geelong where he took on four rivals and under a confident steer from Lane, he was far too strong for them. Has to be rated as one of the leading contenders.

7 KIng’s Coronation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout. Doug Harrison trained three year old that did enough on debut before going to 1700m at Geelong where he got better as the race went on, surging late to win and win well. He’ll love the rise to 1800m on the bigger track and with good upside, is a knockout hope.

7 Boardrider (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is unbeaten in two career outings and looks a pretty good prospect for Clinton McDonald. He debuted with a strong win at Moe before going to Sandown where he gave them a start and a beating, and got better as the race went on. Bred to eat up the mile and beware the unbeaten horse.

10 Heart Of Glass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell for Team McEvoy and should just about be at peak fitness. She ran fourth behind Boardrider at Sandown and I thought her finale was quite good, closing off with real purpose late in the piece. Maps to settle much closer in the run and gets a big upside in jockey with B Shinn on.

8 Our Empress Zoe (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one that I think could prove to be a knockout hope. Price/Kent trained mare that ran over this track/distance just over two weeks back when off speed and kept chasing in a really good effort behind One Dream One Soul. Has a good track/distance record, I am not penning her here.

10 Isthmus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a pretty sharp mare for Team Freedman and off the resumption, she takes beating here I say. She resumed over 1000m at Sandown where she was near the speed and trucking before being clicked up and she just gapped them late in the piece to win and win well, running fast time. Has run well at the track/distance previously and off the return, takes beating.

12 Aardvark (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Team Corstens trained three year old that resumes, having not raced since the Autumn when down the track in the Sires over 1400m here behind Traffic Warden. He has trialled well leading in, drawn out and should be strong at the end.

4 Dual Pressure (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Denman that resumes for Matty Ellerton. This guy is first up, having not raced since May 25 at Sandown when near the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite see it through behind Lady In Pink. He has jumped out really well for the return and I reckon will sprint well fresh here.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 6 Dillian

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Le Mans

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 4 Lavalier

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 10

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg Three: 2, 7, 8, 10, 12

Leg Four: 4, 9, 10, 12

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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