A solid nine race program has been assembled for Flemington this Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:40) Gippsland Region Handicap 1400m
Going the way of 2 St Edward’s Crown (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS). Shane Fliedner trains this filly, who was excellent off a moderate tempo two back over 1200m here behind Sebrakate before stepping back to 1100m here, which I thought would be a negative, but she was strong late and too good. Big tick up to 1400m and she looks a big filly so I don’t think creeping up in the weights will be an issue.
7 Skiddaw (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a son of Hinchinbrook for Danny O’Brien who had trialled up enormous prior to resuming on the Ballarat Synthetic where he looked a good thing off the trials and ran up to those expectations with a dominant win, aided by a sweet steer by Olly. Looks as if the 1400m will be fine and for mine he has returned in really good order, so a definite threat.
4 Brave Enough (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is a Mick Price trained gelding who was relatively unwanted in betting when debuting during the Swan Hill Carnival, SP’ing at $31 and despite that, gee he won impressively and ran decent enough time relative to the meeting. The concern is that he was friendless in the market first up, so wasn’t the stable expecting that? To the eye, he was impressive, so including him.
Race 2. (12:15) The Murray Region Handicap (90) 1400m
2 Flying Krupt (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) looks well placed by Phillip Stokes. Ran at this track/distance a fortnight ago in an identical race where she was a bit keen in the run behind the speed and that early burn probably left her without petrol tickets when it mattered late in a close go. Gets really well in at the weights for mine and this race does look a bit weaker compared to two weeks ago.
3 Angelic Spirit (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) looks a definite improver. Was really keen on her when she resumed at this track/distance a fortnight back but just went a fraction too hard in front and couldn’t quite finish her race off when midfield behind Bad Wolf. Think she’ll take really good improvement from that and back to mares grade second up, she looks one of the hardest to beat.
If you like Flying Krupt then you have to like 5 Ice Girl (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) because there was bugger all between them in the Kings Brok race from two weeks ago, with this girl closing off okay nearer the inside. Fav is $3 and this girl is $15 despite finishing alongside her. I have Flying Krupt as the one to beat and will back her, but have to save something small each way Ice Girl.
Race 3. (12:50) Grampions Region Handicap 1100m
I think the weather will be the key to the chances of 10 Smart Coupe (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS). I reckon the Ellerton/Zahra stable has her flying. Trialled brilliantly prior to an excellent first up run before going to Caulfield behind Petrelle where she was back and on that wet, shifty track, she didn’t come on at all and was most disappointing. If the track is firmer, she can win this for sure.
It’s the right set up for 6 Single Bullet (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) to win. Cold ride, fast speed, cover, launch late. Gary Portelli tried him out as a 1200-1400m horse but he couldn’t produce the goods, so he reverted to sprinting and ridden cold, which produced good results. Thought his trial in Sydney a couple of weeks back and if he gets conditions to suit as mentioned earlier, he’ll take some beating.
He’s always a must for exotics is 5 Invincible Al (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) given he’s usually around the mark, but you’d have to be a brave soul to back him to win. Was okay first up behind Bandipur before getting back last time out and not really coming on behind Moonlover. Perhaps the little break between runs will help his cause, but been a while since he’s won, so one for multiples.
Race 4. (13:25) Great Ocean Road Handicap 2520m
Going the way of the Maher/Eustace trained 6 Last Week (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS). Was heavily backed when racing here two weeks ago and I think you could easily make a case that he should have fought the finish out. Just got badly held when looking to build the revs and while he was looking, Chouxting The Mob was building the revs, had the momentum and was too good. Better luck this time around, he’ll be hard to beat.
3 Chouxting The Mob (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) is racing in career best form at the moment for the Simon Morrish stable. He won here two weeks ago, aided by a lovely steer from Beau Mertens, who got him out, wide, with clear air to let down and that was the difference between winning and losing as Last Week was held up. Harder here, but he’s a stayer in form and this race looks no harder.
10 Flow Meter (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) is on the seven day back up for the John Hickmott stable after racing over 2500m at Morphettville last Saturday on a wet track where he was off the speed and off the bit a fair way but kept finding and was really good in defeat behind Sasko. Off that last run, the trip will be no issue, he’s down in the weights and I think he’s certainly one to be included in multiples.
Race 5. (14:05) Austy Coffey Handicap (78) 1200m
Have to be with old mate 3 Laure Me In (Bet Now: $4.00). He was a very frustrating horse to follow during the Summer, with a string of unlucky runs, but did win a couple of times before racing like a tired horse at Caulfield and was tipped out soon after. He is a very good horse when produced fresh and he went like an absolute jet in a recent Flemington jumpout. Hard to beat I feel.
1 Galaxy Raider (Bet Now: $7.00) might need one more run but he does have class on his side and will go close. He resumed at this track/distance three weeks ago when back in the run and loved the way he found the line late behind Milwaukee. Has since jumped out and looked pretty solid there. I think the Winter Championship is where he’ll head, so may need this run, but he’ll be strong late.
Long Shot: I think back to the six furlongs will suit 17 The Card Players (Bet Now: $12.00), who turned his form around when the blinkers went on, bolting up at Sandown before running fourth there over 1400m. Been freshened up, won a trial on the Ballarat Synthetic and with only 53.5kg on her back, can see Macfarlane letting this bloke and over the shorter trip, giving them something to chase.
Race 6. (14:45) David Bourke Provincial Plate (90) 1600m
4 Five Kingdom (Bet Now: $2.50) looks one of the safer options here. The Hayes/Dabernig team trains this gelding, who resumed over 1400m here a fortnight ago where he was well backed in early betting before drifting back out and he just got run off his legs early on in the race but found the line with real purpose late behind Bad Wolf. Fitter, he’ll eat up the mile, down in the weights…likeable.
The Swan Hill Cup is a key form reference here with a few runners here coming from that race. 5 Connery (Bet Now: $3.40) was hard in the market when contesting the race and on face value, was disappointing, he only finished a couple of lengths off Tan Tat Trusting, draws gate one, with Willow back aboard, so I think he’s the horse to beat from that form race IMO.
6 Sacred Theme (Bet Now: $11.00) started big odds in the Swan Hill Cup but I thought his run in defeat was a beauty. Loved the way he found the line from the back to run a close up fourth to Tan Tat Trusting. That was his first run in a few weeks, so you’d like to think there is room to improve and while he lacks the class of some of these, I think he’s racing well enough to be competitive.
Race 7. (15:25) Creswick Stakes 1200m
Really hard to knock the way that 4 Bam’s On Fire (Bet Now: $3.10) has returned. 3/3 this time in, her last two wins seeing her get the job done impressively at Caulfield, but the win three weeks ago was a spank job. Was bolting behind the speed before Dunn eased her wider and she put them away in a couple of strides. Heading in the right direction and has to be respected as a leading chance.
10 Golden Halo (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Daniel Bowman trained filly who was absolutely smashed in betting when racing during the Swan Hill Carnival and the money was spot on, as the filly led throughout and absolutely bolted in under an in form Jess Eaton. Her two runs prior in the Euclase and Proud Miss were solid enough and good enough to be really competitive here.
3 Marcel From Madrid (Bet Now: $11.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with the Ellerton/Zahra stable, this talented three year old is now under the care of Paul Preusker. At his best, he’s better than these, but been a while since he has showed his best. Now with Preusker, a recent Hamilton jumpout behind the above average I Am Someone was solid enough. Definite market watch.
Race 8. (16:05) Macedon & Goldfields Handicap 1600m
2 Sure Knee (Bet Now: $2.70) for me. Chris Waller trains this filly, who has been in work a fair while, but continues to race really well. Total forgive at this track/distance two weeks ago when back near last in a race dominated by those near the speed and she was outstanding in defeat despite never being a winning threat. If she can sit closer in the run, I think she’ll be too good.
4 Heavenly Emperor (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Stephen Brown trained son of Echoes Of Heaven that has won his past two, the latest coming at this track/distance two weeks ago when big odds but he was impressive in getting the job done. Was 1300-1600m that day and a few weeks between runs, so would like to think there is improvement left and with that in mind, has to be a leading chance.
12 Falls (Bet Now: $8.00) is a son of Niagara for Mick Kent who was confidently supported when breaking the maiden tag at Sandown a couple of Wednesdays back when getting a ripping front running steer by Olly and he gave nothing else a look in, winning comfortably despite losing a plate in the run. Form around him does read well and is on an upward spiral. Definite chance against these.
Race 9. (16:38) Brian Beattie Handicap 1400m
4 Federal (Bet Now: $6.50) on top. James Cummings trains this gelding, who was completely unwanted in betting when resuming at this track/distance but despite that, loved his run, closing off really hard from the back to run second to Blazejowski. If he can sit closer in the run this time around, with the fitness under the belt, he’ll take a power of beating here IMO.
It’s hard to knock the way that 6 Blazejowski (Bet Now: $5.00) is going about his business. He is 3/3 this time in for Greg Eurell, the latest coming two weeks ago at this track/distance when near the speed and when asked for the effort by Jye McNeil, he responded and put the to bed rather quickly, then fended off Federal. Creeping up in the weights, but he’s racing so well.
Might want a touch further but I liked the resumption of 11 Romancer (Bet Now: $26.00) at Caulfield three weeks back when off the speed, doing work in the run, but found the line well enough behind the form horse in Victoria at the moment, Begood Toya Mother. 1600m+ is when he’ll come into his own, but does get weight relief and will be strong with eyes towards the future.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Bam’s On Fire
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Flying Krupt
LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 10 Smart Coupe
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6
Leg Two: 4
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 9, 12
Leg Four: 4, 6
$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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