22/4/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Hawkesbury, Hawkesbury Cup day

2 Zardozi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the potential to be top class and IMO, I think she could progress and potentially be a 3YO for the Cox Plate. 2/2 to start her career, the latest coming over 1300m here where she went through her gears like a nice horse and made a mess of them in a dominant display. Extra 100m should be fine, got upside, timing and in the right camp. Clearly the one to beat.

3 Californian (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in two career outings for the Ryan/Alexiou camp. Both runs have come here, winning on debut and was strong from off the speed. They rode him warm last time and he battled on pretty well but was no match for Zardozi. I think with a more patient steer, that will allow him to be more effective at the end.

4 Icebreaker (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1400m. He ran second to Zardozi over 1300m here on debut and I thought did a really good job after sitting on speed. He could have easily spat the dummy put but he kept finding under pressure to run second. Given he has the David Payne polish, he’ll appreciate a rise in trip and has good upside to come.

8 Brogans Creek (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a consistent animal for Toby Pracey that has a good racing style and will give a sight. Market said he was a moral when racing over this trip at Mudgee last time out and once Pracey-Holmes found the outside fence, it was race over and he made an absolute mess of them despite the margin being less than a length. Harder here, clearly, but will give cheek.

1 Penthouse (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality filly that resumes. Matty Smith trains this three year old, that is a proven Highway performer and is first up, having not raced since December 24 when far from disgraced in a Highway at Randwick behind Just In Reach. Had a trial at Goulburn on March 17 and seemingly moved very well. Tends to race best fresh, so I think she has to be rated as a key winning chance.

12 Sun Kiss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be hit and miss but her best is certainly good enough to be around the mark. Was a big price at Wellington last time but finished best from off the speed under Costin to win narrowly but impressively. The gate makes things tricky but should she get decent cover and a drag into the race, a win wouldn’t totally shock.

13 Shadows Of Love (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one to beat. Progressive filly for Kim Waugh that ran at the midweeks here last time where she was first past the post, beating subsequent Group winner Olentia, but lost the race on protest given she shifted out badly under pressure. That was 1300m so like her back to 1100m, she’ll land on speed and be strong at the end.

11 Passistas (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. Matty Smith trained mare that resumed at Wyong…well, I say resumed, but it was more like a barrier trial. She got back to near last in the run and just couldn’t get involved, but that said, she didn’t get much room to move. Has run well at metro level previously and with clear air this time around, she can certainly take this out.

5 Fumiko (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key chance for Kristen Buchanan. Opening two runs for the prep at midweek level were strong before being thrown in the deep end in The Sapphire when down the track and outclassed behind Zapateo. Much better suited at this level and provided there is petrol left in the tank, she has to rate as one of the hardest to beat.

Fitter and up to 1800m are two big ticks for 4 Unspoken (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Former UK stayer for Team Snowden that made his Australian debut over 1550m on the Kenso track and I thought found the line really well when a narrow second to an on speed tough nut, Luvoir. Market said he was there to run well and that he did. Has a much better set up this time around and likes wet ground. He’ll do me.

6 Pretty Amazing (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a progressive mare for Chris Waller that should prove hard to beat here. Resumed with a strong third over 1550m on the Kenso before going to the mile here where she lobbed into a lovely spot under Lloyd. Just a matter of getting clear air and once she got it, away she went and she was dominant in the run to the line. Like her up in trip and third up, should be hard fit.

18 Bon Vivant (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is certainly capable with his best. James Cummings trained gelding that is over a month between runs since racing on the Kenso over 1800m when back in the run and making up solid headway without threatening behind Silent Agenda. Break between runs interests me but the recent trial was nice and this is a very winnable race.

2 Fire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented sprinter that resumes for Team Hawkes. His last run came in the Lightning down the straight at Flemington when thrown in the deep end and while safely held, I thought he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Coolangatta. This looks clearly more his level and with a bit of quality on his side, he rates highly.

11 Red Card (Bet Now:  $SP.00) resumes for James Cummings and is quite dangerous. This filly did a good job when last in work, winning here before proving that was no fluke when sent to Melbourne, winning at The Valley. Has trialled up really well leading in, she gets J Mac and outside Fire, this race is pretty thin, so she commands respect.

12 Daralina Belle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Matty Smith trained mare that resumes and I think she is certainly dangerous against these. Her last run came at Rosehill on September 10 in a Midway where she got back in the run and couldn’t get involved behind a promising animal, Kipsbay. Can sprint well fresh and her recent Warwick Farm trial was a pretty good piece of work.

3 Andermatt (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks here to rock and roll. James Cummings trained gelding that comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since The Galaxy when far from disgraced in defeat against the pattern behind Mariamia, who went on to run really well in the TJ Smith, so the form reads well, and his trial last week at Warwick Farm was very sharp. He’ll sit off the good speed and be hard to hold out.

5 Zethus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a James Cummings trained gelding that resumes, and he is one of several runners from the stable where you can think he is a potential Stradbroke horse, or could even head towards the Goodwood. He is first up, having not raced since the Brisbane Summer Carnival when down the track behind Emerald Kingdom. Gun fresh horse and he has trialled up like that fresh record will be maintained.

2 Malkovich (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a smart animal for Bjorn Baker that is first up. He had a somewhat disappointing prep, but for the most part, he did contest some strong races, including The Moir. This looks more his level and although he is not the best of fresh horses, his recent trial work has been electric and to my eye, he looks wound up to go.

I thought $26 all in for 10 A Lot More Love (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was a big price so hopefully I am seeing it right. Had a three run Autumn prep, all three runs on dry ground, and the first couple of runs were okay but she didn’t fire in the Phar Lap at Rosehill, a day where the track was a road. She finds a track with give in it and her best is clearly good enough to give this a shake. Happy to speck her each way.

2 Kote (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the most talent in the race but upstairs is his query. He just isn’t here, but given the lack of overall depth, he appeals. He attempted to lead throughout in the Arrowfield Sprint and tried his guts out but was just no match late for Aft Cabin. Like him up in trip and if he gets some level of control in front, he’ll take running down.

12 Mumbai Jewel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise in trip. She could have run last Saturday in the J H B Carr but instead the stable have kept her on ice with this race in mind. She ran three weeks ago in the PJ Bell and was very good from off the speed when sixth to Magic Time. Love her up to 1400m and with a more positive steer, she can take this out.

6 Written Beauty (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has an awful racing pattern but I am convinced she is flying. She ran several weeks back in the Birthday Card where she was back and wide, trying to make ground, and given the way the track played, I thought she was excellent in defeat behind Zapateo. If she can jump clean and be within range 400m out, she certainly has the finale to take this out, and her tick over trial was a lovely piece of work.

1 Princess Grace (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks like she will win races down under. Former American mare that made her Australian debut in the Sapphire and was building into the race nicely but just ran out of puff the last furlong when third to Zapateo. Good upside to come and fitter, up in trip, she rates as one of the hardest to beat against these.

10 Never Talk (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bursting to win a race for Kris Lees. Her run was incredible in the Sapphire two weeks ago after bombing the start. She made up a stack of ground from near last to run second to the very much in form mare Zapateo. She has won at 1400m so 1300m is fine for her and if she’s within range on the turn, I do think she has the finale to overhaul them.

The weather will determine how strong his claims are, but if the rain does arrive, I think the each way bet has to be 4 Just Folk (Bet Now:  $SP.00). There are better horses in the race, namely Floating Artist, but you can only assume he has eyes on the Hollindale/Doomben Cup so he may want further. Just Folk is the miler and swims, so hoping for the rain to come. His run in the Golden Mile against the race shape was very good and is proven in decent races in Sydney. He’ll do me.

10 Lord Ardmore (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Did more than enough fresh in the Doncaster Prelude before going to the mile at Warwick Farm where he was met with serious market support and presented to win in the run but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Cognac. Third up, hard fit now and stable loves to target these mile races at Hawkesbury.

17 Superium (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a dry track specialist so the weather will determine how strong his winning claims are. He ran last time out at Flemington in the Shaftesbury Avenue and he was solid enough from a tricky spot in the run, beaten just under five lengths by Not An Option, who was flying at the time. He can be hard to catch at times but if the track is okay for him, he’s dangerous.

5 Wicklow (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat in the get out. Chris Waller trained gelding that resumed several weeks ago at Randwick in what was essentially a barrier trial, so the fact he made up headway against that pattern, the run was very good behind Tamerlane. Prebble to Nash is a big positive, he’s got good upside, tempo more genuine, he’ll do me.

3 Spangler (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can certainly hold it. Really caught the eye two back in the Provincial Championship Wildcard behind stablemate Loch Eagle before turning the tables on that horse in spades in the Final, giving him and the others a spanking under a 12/10 from J Mac. Off that, an extra 100m is no issue and is one of the hardest to beat.

16 Cap Estel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with her best. Anthony Cummings trained mare that was a break between runs when racing at the midweeks here. She was met with good market support but didn’t really let down at all and was a bit on the plain side behind Delacour, beaten just over four lengths. Fitter, more positive ride, she is good enough to be dangerous.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 Andermatt

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 2 Fire

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 6 Written Beauty

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 7, 9, 10, 12

Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 10, 14

Leg Three: 3, 4, 10, 17

Leg Four: 3, 5, 12, 16

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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