A strong card of racing has been assembled for Moonee Valley on Saturday, highlighted by the VOBIS Gold Carat (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:36) : Slickpix Handicap (78) 1000m:
Back Me: Heatherly (Best Odds: $2.00) was very disappointing as an odds on pop when resuming at William Hill Park Hillside, then came to the 955m here where she was a bit tardy away and that bad start cost her when second to Petite’s Reward. She normally jumps cleanly here, so she should lead if she jumps, and with the rail in the true position, it will be no disadvantage to be on speed.
Big Danger: Super Bryan (Best Odds: $6.00) was Black Caviar-esque in terms of how easily he won last time out at Yarra Valley and jockey Noel Callow barely raised a sweat as the horse led all the way, beating home the older horses and running smart time. Drops 5.5kg from that for this, draws well and I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t measure up.
Roughie: Bellomo (Best Odds: $15.00) is on the quick back up from last Saturday at Caulfield where he got too far back and couldn’t get into the race behind Golden Spin. That race had far more depth than what he faces here, so he can be a definite improver at odds in what looks a pretty thin race.
Race Two (14:11) : LF Sign Group Handicap (84) 1600m:
Back Me: Siegestor (Best Odds: $3.90) ran over 1400m at Flemington last time out when working home strongly against the tempo to run third to Precious Gem, beaten two lengths. Unbeaten at the track/distance, draws well and is well weighted after the claim for Jye McNeil.
Big Danger: Orion (Best Odds: $4.60) ran over the Flemington mile three weeks back where he finished off his race very nicely when third to Tashbeeh, beaten just under three lengths. Fourth up now, so he does have the fitness edge over Siegestor, and he himself has a very good record at the track.
Roughie: Tucanchoo (Best Odds: $6.50) resumed over 1500m at William Hill Park Hillside a month back and didn’t have the best of luck behind Distant Rock, getting held up a touch in the straight. He has run well here previously, and he does have a solid second up record.
Race Three (14:46) : Ranvet Handicap (70) 1500m:
Back Me: Darcy’s Law (Best Odds: $5.50) ran over 1400m last time out at Echuca and was given a gem by Damian Lane to spank her rivals and winning with real authority. Harder here, but that win was just too impressive to dismiss, and Lane sticks.
Big Danger: Bet You She Rocks (Best Odds: $4.60) took on the boys over the mile here last time out where she sat on speed and toughed it out strongly to run fourth to Black Sheep. I think back in trip and back to her own sex should see her take some beating.
Roughie: Penny To Sell (Best Odds: $6.00) ran fourth to My Obsession in that race mentioned above and she just didn’t appear to handle the tight turns at all, which was odd considering her first up run here was a beauty. She should be ready now fourth up from a break, gate one and she gets a 3kg weight swing on My Obsession.
Race Four (15:25) : Jeep Handicap (78) 1000m:
Back Me: Star Stealer (Best Odds: $2.20) was a $1.40 favourite when resuming over the short course at Swan Hill and while he took his time to wind up, he got there and in the end it was pretty convincing. That was on November 29, so it’s over a month between runs, but how can you rule out a Darren Weir runner at the moment?
Big Danger: Bullpit (Best Odds: $7.00) returns to Melbourne after a two run stint in Sydney, which yielded a win at Canterbury and an unplaced effort at Rosehill in a strong form race. 1000m at the Valley is perfect, he should be right on top of the speed and gets in well after the claim for Kieran Shoemark.
Roughie: Steel Trigger (Best Odds: $17.00) was given an absolute peach by Dwayne Dunn to win over this track/distance a couple of weeks back, leading throughout to win narrowly but impressively, and it was well deserved. Harder here, but if he can get a drag into the race, he’ll be a threat for sure.
Race Five (16:05) : Alliance Broking Services VOBIS Gold Carat 1200m:
Back Me: Love Days (Best Odds: $1.65) looks to be a well above average filly who has won two from two, the latest over this distance under the lights here where she led all the way and won with ease. The time was similar to the two other 1200m races on the same program, but she was eased down the last bit. Hugely talented, and though this is her biggest test, she should measure up.
Big Danger: Antelucan (Best Odds: $6.50) was an alarming drifter last time out down the straight at Flemington but she almost defied that betting drift and beat all bar Tyrannize. She is the class runner engaged here, and from gate one, she should get every chance.
Roughie: Street Pride (Best Odds: $34.00) broke through for her maiden in impressive fashion at Bendigo over 1100m, and the time compared nicely with the older horses on the same program, which is always a good guide IMO. Stablemate The Big Dance probably has her covered on ability, but she has race fitness on her side and draws inside.
Race Six (16:45) : WeDrive.com.au Your Car Handicap (78) 2040m:
Back Me: Orator (Best Odds: $19.00) ran over this track/distance last time out and finished off his race nicely when running fourth to Swacadelic, beaten just over three lengths in a pleasing effort. He hasn’t really set the world on fire since coming down under, but he gets his chance here to put a win on the board.
Big Danger: Leica Day (Best Odds: $2.90) is on the back up from last Saturday where he toughed it out very strongly over 1800m at Caulfield to get the job done impressively. Untried beyond 1800m, but this looks the perfect race to test the water given there is little depth engaged here.
Roughie: Rebel Rising (Best Odds: $19.00) could be a sleeper here at odds. He ran over the mile here last time out and picked off a few late behind impressive winner Black Sheep. He runs very well at this track and will love the rise to 2040m, as well as some decent weight relief. Knockout hope at good odds.
Race Seven (17:25) : City Jeep Handicap (78) 2500m:
Back Me: Not really a race I want to dive into, but on top for me will be Bajour (Best Odds: $6.00), who closed off very well last time out over 2000m at Flemington when fourth to Crimson Cape. Looked sharp in a jump out last week and though a query at the Valley for the first time, he should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Spectacular Vision (Best Odds: $3.80) won very impressively over 2400m at William Hill Park Lakeside, producing a powerful finishing burst over the final 300m to win impressively. She had been bursting to do something like that, and now that she has, she can go right on with it.
Roughie: Rangers Run (Best Odds: $13.00) ran over 2040m last time out here and worked home well late to run third to Bling Dynasty, beaten just over two lengths. He will eat up the 2500m here, should be put to sleep from gate one and Nick Hall has ridden very well since returning from injury.
Race Eight (18:05) : William Hill Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: Boomwaa (Best Odds: $8.00) ran down the straight over this track/distance last start and stuck to the task quite gamely when running sixth to Durendal, beaten 2.2L. Should be at peak fitness now and if he can sit handy, I don’t think that will be a disadvantage.
Big Danger: Judges (Best Odds: $7.50) has been freshened up since failing on Ballarat Cup Day where he was tardy to begin with and that sealed his fate. His win first up at Ararat was very sharp and the form out of that race has held up. He shouldn’t be too far away from the speed, and the stable is having a good run at the moment.
Roughie: Word Of Mouth (Best Odds: $31.00) is a handy stayer that resumes for the Corstens after a pretty solid Winter prep. Hasn’t caught my eye at the jump outs, but he can run well fresh, and he has a great record at Moonee Valley, which certainly is no disadvantage.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 9 Love Days
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Siegestor
VALUE: Race Seven Number 11 Rangers Run
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 5, 8, 9, 12, 13
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 11
Leg Three: 2, 3, 6, 8, 11, 12
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 17
$50 Investment= 3.85% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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