21/9/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes day

A bumper card of racing has been assembled for Caulfield this Saturday, headlined by the Group l Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Rupert Clarke Field 🏆: View the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Field

In the corner of 3 Aristocratic Miss (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS). The McEvoy stable trains this mare, who was a couple of months between runs when racing over 1400m at Sandown at the midweeks where she got back in a slowly run affair, so she really had no winning hope, but really liked the way she found the line late behind Rox The Castle, who won last Saturday to tick that form off. Keen on her chances up in trip with the run under the belt.

4 Heir To The Throne (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) can be a sharp improver. He ran over the mile at the Valley two weeks ago when wide no cover on speed and just felt the pinch after doing the work in the run behind Silent Roar. Back on his home track and draws gate one, so he should get run of the race in the small field and good lead is that Melham remains on from last time.

Giving respect to 2 Shared Ambition (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS), a former Irish galloper who makes his Australian debut for Chris Waller. This bloke had three outings overseas, winning his last two before being purchased to come to Australia. Visually, the two wins were good, but the form out of both races has been overall. Close to 40 subsequent runs behind him for 0 wins. That’s the negative, but looked to move very well in a Flemington jumpout last Friday.

1600m looks short for 3 Long Jack (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) but he looks to have a bit of class about him and I think he’ll get away with this. Resumed on the Ballarat Synthetic where he was wide throughout and didn’t look 100% happy on the surface, but class kicked in late and he drew away to get the maiden out of the way. He looks a real Derby prospect, so that’s when he’ll come into his own I suspect, but hard to ignore the Baker/Forsman polish.

1 Huntly Castle (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS) is heading down the Derby path and is first up here with improvement to come one would assume. He put it together towards the end of last prep, winning his maiden at Bendigo before securing a start in the Derby when winning at Flemington. 1600m first up tells me he’s forward enough to run well and liked the way he went in a recent jumpout.

4 Skiddaw (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is going well for Danny O’Brien. Jury was out after a couple of fair runs but bounced back nicely at the Valley two weeks back over 1500m, finishing his race off strongly to run third to Power Scheme in a blanket finish. Off that run, the 1600m should be fine for him, he’s got hard fitness under the belt and can sit closer in the run if need be.

Have to be in the corner of 5 Garner (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS). He was heavily backed when resuming on the Parks track two weeks ago and despite sitting three/four wide throughout, he dashed clear late and won like a good horse. Gordon Richards may have lost Gytrash for the Spring but perhaps this bloke can win here and continue on to be competitive at blacktype level.

Clearly have to give respect to 1 I Am Immortal (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS), who certainly has the class to beat these. Anthony Freedman trains this three year old, who had a fab opening to his career, winning his first two, the Preview and Prelude of the Blue Diamond. That made sure he was one of the leading chances in the big one but 1200m at that stage of his career probably found him out. Fresh, 1000m, looks to get a good run on speed, he’ll be hard to beat.

7 Moldova (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is a Danny O’Brien trained filly who is handy when right. She was a drifter in betting fresh at Bendigo but she didn’t turn it up in defeat and got a definite pass mark behind Seatonic. Think she’ll take really good improvement from that outing and I think her best chance of winning will be if she leads and is allowed to roll along in front I feel.

8 So Taken (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) for me. Chris Waller trains this mare, who is three weeks between runs since racing on a bog surface at Rosehill where she wasn’t 100% happy on the surface but kept finding and was good in defeat behind Greyworm. Little break after that hard run and returns to firmer footing from a good draw, and the Walker/Waller combo has been quite good recently.

3 Haut Brion Her (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) is a Chris Waller trained mare who had put together a sequence of wins prior to racing at the Valley two weeks ago where she just went a tad keen near the speed and wobbled a touch on the turn which ensured she lost momentum and in the end was outgunned by Tofane, who did sit wide throughout. Better for the experience racing the Melbourne way and senior jock takes over.

5 Shokora (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) has been racing much more consistently this time in for the Hayes/Dabernig stable. She ran over this track/distance three weeks ago where she was slightly held up in the straight when having something to offer and should have finished closer but she wasn’t going to win behind My Pendant. That form reads well enough for a race like this.

I think there’s a bit of intent with 8 Bella Martini (Bet Now: $10.00) first up for Team Hawkes. Normally she sits out the back in the trials, off speed, and finds the line. Her recent Flemington jumpout saw her sit on speed, leading, and she looked to move very well. Have always had time for her and normally needs a run or two to find her best, but she looks ready to go fresh.

Every time 4 Pippie (Bet Now: $2.00) has been asked to raise her game, she has done it and done it superbly. Toughest test to date came in the Cockram where she was leading and albeit got it soft, she was far too good for her rivals and at that stage of the day was the only leader to win. Sustained speed is her great asset so keen to see if she can continue her winning ways.

11 Tofane (Bet Now: $8.00) is a definite threat for me. Was on her at nice odds at the Valley two weeks ago and despite sitting wide in the run, she surged to the front late in the final few strides and was too good for her rivals in what was a very sharp win, bouncing back from a disappointing resumption. She still hasn’t looked 100% in the coat, so keen to see how she goes.

7 Brimham Rocks (Bet Now: $20.00) looks to have returned in good order for Chris Waller. Just looked in need of the run first up in the Rowley Mile before going to the Chelmsford where his late splits were very good behind Samadoubt. Two runs at the mile to start the prep so he’s looking for more ground, which he gets here, and off the last run, he has to be a winning chance.

The connections of 14 Wolfe (Bet Now: $5.00) will be hoping the rain doesn’t get this track too wet. We saw what happened last time when he stepped out onto a track with give in it. He was legless and a beaten horse on the turn. His performances prior were that of a promising stayer, but this will be a good test and a good guide as to just how good he is and what level he can get to.

I think there is value in the shape of 3 Gallic Chieftain (Bet Now: $26.00). He resumed in the Feehan two weeks ago, a race where he clearly looked in need of the run, and that’s how it panned out when down the track behind Homesman. He won’t mind a track with give in it should the rain come and getting out to 2000m and away from WFA are two massive ticks.

12 Amphitrite (Bet Now: $7.00) is a quality mare for the Hayes/Dabernig team that comes through the Cockram where she was back near last in the run and never a winning factor but loved the way she found the line behind Pippie in an excellent resumption. Gets really good weight relief this time around and should sit off what looks a really genuine tempo. Hard to beat.

The set up is there for 14 Begood Toya Mother (Bet Now: $3.00) to win. Light weight, gets the lead, hard fit…ticks plenty of boxes. Got the job done first up Regal Roller before being far from disgraced in the Memsie behind Scales Of Justice. Down to 52kg, he gets his chance to lead and roll along with the lightweight and prove hard to run down. Personally, I couldn’t touch him under $4. $5+ I could have something on.

I think a horse at silly odds is 4 Madison County (Bet Now: $14.00) and I’m definitely having something on at the double figures. High class four year old for the Baker/Forsman team that is resuming off the back of an outstanding Autumn in Sydney where he was enormous in the Tulloch and then the Derby. Trialled well over in NZ before a jumpput at Flemington where he looked very good. 1600m is his go I think, but a fast run 1400m will be right up his alley.

Like the look of 11 Beauty Bolt (Bet Now: $6.00) for Grahame Begg. This filly is 2/2 in her career to date with a spell in between. Loved the way she attacked the line from the back to win first up at Seymour over 1300m, closing off with real purpose late to get up and win in a race which looked to have depth to it. Up to 1400m looks no issue and she’ll do me in what looks a competitive race.

1 Koowerup (Bet Now: $4.80) looks hard to beat here. This girl resumed over 1200m at the Valley a few weeks back and I thought she was a little unlucky in the straight when having something to offer and should have finished closer when third to Sassy Salitage, who looks an above average filly, so that form reads okay for this, and she does look suited up to 1400m.

The best version of 6 Talented (Bet Now: $34.00) is certainly good enough to figure in the finish. She hasn’t set the world on fire this time in, her last start seeing her finish last at the Valley behind Sassy Salitage. Her 2YO form would see her beat these, but she’s just done nothing this prep, so I think include her in exotics just in case, but I couldn’t back her to win personally.

9 Terbium (Bet Now: $5.00) looks extremely hard to beat if he’s somewhere near his best. Late market drift first up at the Valley suggested he may have needed the run but unfortunately got stuck wide throughout and was a beaten horse on the turn behind Tavisan. Trial a couple of weeks ago was quite good and he did score a dynamic win at this track during the Autumn Carnival.

Normal luck and 5 Plague Stone (Bet Now: $3.70) will take some beating here. Talented animal for James Cummings who seems to have turned the corner since being gelded, winning a couple of nice races during the Brisbane Winter Carnival and placing behind boom sprinter Zoustyle. He’s a bomb when produced fresh and loved the way he closed off in a recent trial.

11 William Thomas (Bet Now: $8.00) is a quality son of Nicconi for John Price that resumes. This five year old hasn’t raced since running third to Jungle Edge at Sandown on a day where being on speed was the spot to be, so his task was made difficult but I thought his effort was more than sound in defeat. Good fresh horse and with a genuine tempo in front, he’ll get his chance.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 3 Long Jack

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 8 Bella Martini

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 7 Brimham Rocks

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 7, 14

Leg Two: 4, 5, 12, 14

Leg Three: 1, 6, 11, 15

Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 9, 11

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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