21/6/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Royal Ascot, Commonwealth Cup day

The Royal Ascot Carnival continues this Friday night, highlighted by the Commonwealth Cup (1200m), a race that is near identical of that to the Coolmore Stud at Flemington, featuring some of the best 3YO sprinters in the business.

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Tricky race to start the meeting. 25 Silent Wave (Bet Now: $13.00) interests me. Charlie Appleby trains this filly, who debuted over this trip at Goodwood when a heavy favourite and didn’t give punters a moment of concern with a commanding on speed win and ran good time relative to the day. Looks a smart customer and has the solid 1200m under the belt, which should help her cause.

20 Nayibeth (Bet Now: $7.50) does look the pick of the Wesley Ward runners. This girl debuted at Keeneland back in April and she did what was expected. Did everything right, did it from the front and looked to win pretty comfortably. Mixed results thus far for the stable at Royal Ascot, and 1200m on testing ground at this track won’t be easy, but have to respect the stable.

4 Celtic Beauty (Bet Now: $26.00) has started long odds in both career runs in Ireland but this No Nay Never filly has caught the eye each time she has stepped out. Each start she’s been tardy away and has cost herself any chance of taking up a decent spot but I have liked the way she’s found the line, suggesting a strongly run 1200m will be no issue and she’ll be good odds.

8 Private Secretary (Bet Now: $6.00) on top. John Gosden trains this colt, who dodged the Derby and comes here with fresh legs. Thought his win at Goodwood was enormous given he was back in the run and they absolutely crawled in front, giving those from behind little chance, but he still managed to pick them up. Pace should be more genuine this time around and he does have a good turn of foot.

5 Japan (Bet Now: $2.10) does look the obvious. He comes through the Derby when back, a fair way off the speed, before being presented clear air and he chased hard all the way to run a gutsy third. How much will that run take out of him remains to be seen but he’s in the right stable, Ryan Moore takes over from a good draw and clearly on form is hard to beat.

1 Bangkok (Bet Now: $13.00) was a horse I was quite keen on running well in the Derby after winning his maiden impressively at Doncaster, then winning the Derby Trial at Sandown. He looked to be going well off the speed in the Derby but as soon as pressure was applied, he found little and was most disappointing. Have to give him another look because his efforts prior were sharp.

7 Ten Sovereigns (Bet Now: $2.10) for me. Sent out favourite when resuming in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and it Aidan O’Brien just needed that run to confirm that for now, he’s not a miler. Had his chance and was very weak at the end of the race. O’Brien is a master trainer and he is one of the best at getting a horse to bounce back and I think on his previous form, he can.

2 Hello Youmzain (Bet Now: $9.00) looks a talented colt who resumed down the Haydock straight in the Sandy Lane when tracking the speed before peeling out and finishing best to win narrowly but impressively. He’s heading in the right direction and does have recent straight track success next to his name. Bit harder here, but do like him with some upside left in the tank.

1 Advertise (Bet Now: $7.50) looks a knockout chance. Like Ten Sovereigns, just needed the run to confirm that a longer trip isn’t his go in life for now. He too resumed in the 2000 Guineas and just didn’t finish off at all. Back to 1200m, his form earlier in his career at this trip was lethal and is bred to handle a track with give in it, so he is the one at odds that I could entertain.

3 Hermosa (Bet Now: $1.80) does look the good thing of the Carnival. Best filly over a mile in the UK quite comfortably and that was evident in the Thousand Guineas at the Curragh, being on speed and she absolutely bolted in, winning by a space and running fast time. The depth behind her doesn’t look great overall and she is just on an upward spiral it seems. Looks the winner.

All you can is win and that is what 4 Jubiloso (Bet Now: $7.00) has done in both career outings. The close relation to Frankel has looked pretty good in the wins, the latest coming at Newbury when a very impressive victor under little pressure. Clearly her hardest test to date, but she’s got the breeding to be a good one and is in the right stable, so has to be respected.

8 Pretty Pollanna (Bet Now: $13.00) ran second to Hermosa at the Curragh. Admittedly, was well beaten and held by that filly, but Hermosa did have fitness on her side while Pretty Pollanna was first up and I thought she got a definite pass mark in defeat. Form had tapered off a bit towards the end of last prep but off the resumption, I think she’s a clear place chance.

17 Desirous (Bet Now: $7.00) for me. This filly resumed over the mile at Goodwood around a month ago where she had the sweet run just off the speed before being presented clear air and when asked for an effort, the response was there and she won most impressively. Draws the likely best part of the track and last prep did win on slow ground, so wet weather won’t be an issue.

There was a bit to like about the first up win of 1 Magnetic Charm (Bet Now: $9.00), pretty much the best chance for the Queen to get a win at Royal Ascot for 2019. Loved the way this filly attacked the line to win first up at York when back off the speed before charging to the line under Doyle and found plenty late when looking she would be challenged. Hard to beat here.

5 Gypsy Spirit (Bet Now: $67.00) won’t mind some give in the track. This daughter of Gregorian comes here off the back of a placing at Listed level at Chantilly over the mile when running third after getting every chance. Previous form was solid enough and has showed a liming for tracks that are rain affected. Outside winning chance I reckon and certainly one I could entertain at near $30+.

14 Collide (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Hugo Palmer trained son of Frankel who has J Mac steering. He comes through the 2400m race at York where Fujaira Prince ran second in and for mine, he had his chance to win but couldn’t quite get the job done, having to settle for fourth. The big tick for him is the track has give, and his career best runs have come on wet ground.

3 Baghdad (Bet Now: $5.50) is a son of Frankel who looks to be heading in the right direction. Loved the way he toughed it out to win over 2400m at Newmarket last time out given he did pull a bit in the run and was there to be beaten but found plenty under De Sousa and was too good. Loses nothing with Ryan Moore jumping on and does come into this race with fresh legs.

17 Fujaira Prince (Bet Now: $7.00) looks really hard to beat here for Roger Varian. Had a near year off the scene prior to winning impressively first up at Doncaster over 2000m before going to 2400m where he attempted to lead all the way and just felt the pinch late. Like him back to 2000m, proven on wet ground, has upside and I think it’ll take a good one to beat him.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Hermosa

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 8 Private Secretary

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 14 Collide

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