21/1/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot

If you trust the Brave Halo form, which I am, then 2 A Lot Of Good Men (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is quite clearly the one to beat. He debuted here in October and ran third to Brave Halo, who is clearly the #1 juvenile in WA. Trialled up super at Lark Hill last week when winning under a hold and the depth here, from what I can see, is quite thin. If he’s ready to go, I think he wins.

3 Big Player (Bet Now:  $SP.00) creates interest. Luke Fernie trained juvenile that is on debut off the back of a trial win at Belmont on Monday where he led throughout over 400m and despite doing a couple of things wrong, he seemingly moved pretty well to the eye. Gets W Pike for start and this stable can get their juveniles to fire, so I’d watch the market with him.

7 Flinders Lane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Hayden Ballantyne trained daughter of Patronize that is on debut. This girl has been well educated for start one with three trials under the belt, going back to mid November. She ran second to A Lot Of Good Men at Lark Hill and though safely held, I thought she went around well enough. Not sure she has the talent to win but will run a positive race.

7 Work In Progress (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is well named because she is certainly a filly heading in the right direction. 2/2 this time in, bolting up fresh from the back at Belmont before racing at Belmont again where she led throughout and spanked them, which was a big tick because it showed she has versatility re racing pattern. Should lob into a lovely spot from the gate and is the one to beat.

1100m back to 1000m I hate for 3 Mia Gusto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but if they go silly in front, she will be the one that will be strongest late. Resumed over 1100m here two weeks ago where she was tucked in behind the genuine speed but was able to track up nicely and once she got clear air, it was race over and she was dominant. I think she’d love a rise in trip but she is a filly with good talent.

5 Capo Veloce (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Demerit that resumes for Colin Webster. He did a good job in the early part of the Winter, ending the prep with a fourth at Belmont behind Final Series. Looked to trial up well at Belmont and although 1000m is on the short side, he’ll be strong at the end and is a knockout chance at a price.

7 Cable Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned enormous and has run well in town before. Two runs back this time in for Steve Wolfe, both at Albany. Latest run was over this trip and he spanked his rivals from off the speed, producing good change up speed to gap his rivals. Tricky gate to overcome, but if he gets luck, potentially three wide cover, he’ll take beating.

6 Desert Vixen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented mare for Simon Miller and I think 1200m will be okay for her, especially with the soft gate. Resumed at Belmont last Wednesday where she had the suck run behind the speed before getting the split and she dashed, drawing clear late to win impressively in a good return. More depth here, and yet to tick the 1200m, but should get every chance from the gate.

1200m with 4 On The Full (Bet Now:  $SP.00) I find fascinating given he has struggled at 1000m throughout his career, but I do think a soft lead is there to be had for him and this is a serious drop in depth from recent runs. Latest run was over 1000m here two weeks ago where he led but copped heat and felt the pinch late behind He’s Gold. If he leads and gets control, he’ll take running down.

All three runs this time in for 1 Time Scale (Bet Now:  $SP.00) have come at 1200m so now getting to 1400m, she appeals big time. Ran over 1200m here a fortnight back where she attempted to lead throughout and gave a mini kick but couldn’t quite finish it off behind My Dilemma. She has a fab 1400m record and drawn inside, should hold up from the front, on speed at worst, and prove hard to run down.

They have tried to stretch 2 Hardly Ever (Bet Now:  $SP.00) out in trip and while I think 1400m is on the limit side for her, she has a touch of quality on her side to take this out. Ran over the mile two weeks ago here and seemingly had every chance, getting the suck run behind the speed and battled late behind Sentimental Hero. End of prep run is probably approaching, but this is a very winnable race for her with the form lines she has.

The jury was somewhat out on 9 Rulelee (Bet Now:  $SP.00), but her last couple of runs indicate she is back on track. Four wide the trip two back at Belmont but found and got the win in amazing fashion. She then went to Pinjarra where she came back to 1300m and seemingly had her chance when third behind Memorable Miss. Back up in trip is a positive and maps to get a lovely run in transit.

I want to give 3 Capital Flight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) another chance. Got the sweet sit behind the speed and won well fresh before going here again where he did far too much work on speed and felt the pinch late behind Premium Choice. He draws to give Holly Watson options, whether leading or opting for a sit. Either way, I think he’ll get a much better run and can definitely bounce back against these.

Back in trip I do like for 5 Via Monte (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He sat on speed last time in the Mandurah Cup and seemingly had his chance but couldn’t quite finish it off when down the track behind Real Danger. He does seem to be a horse best suited at 1100m/1200m so back to 1100m here and sitting off a good speed, his best is certainly good enough to win.

7 Halatorian (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. Roy Rogers trained gelding that ran in the Fitzpatrick Plate at Albany last time where he was wide no cover for the trip and just forget he went around given the work he did in the run. Gets Pike back aboard and draws to get a more economical run. Off the win two back here, he’s right in this.

4 Roch Legacy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks terribly hard to beat against this lot. On the seven day back up after racing last Saturday here where he was given a 12/10 steer by Parnham but couldn’t quite finish it off behind a handy stayer in Coolth. This is a massive drop in grade/depth for him and if he can use the good gate to advantage, gee I think he’ll take beating against these.

2100m is an unknown for 2 Vevinksy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but the way he finds the line, 2100m looks like it will be okay. His last couple of runs have come over 1800m here, the latest being a fortnight back where he chased strongly in the straight but couldn’t quite get there when second to an in form Kernan Rock. Should roll forward, land on speed and prove to be a leading threat.

8 Ocean Aura (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hit and miss but she hit last time so she’s a knockout hope. Ran over 2200m here at the midweeks a few weeks back where she was given a peach by Warwick and finished best to win impressively. The run prior at the mile was more than encouraging so now she has the 2200m run under the belt, which should hold her in good stead.

8 The Lady Is A Vamp (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Lou Luciani and with a clean jump, clear air, she’s the one. Should have won two weeks ago over 1000m here but bombed the start, was near the fence and held up. She got out late and launched, just missing out on the win when beaten a lip by He’s Gold. Hopefully she gets the rub of the green this time around and if that eventuates here, she’ll take beating.

Back to 1000m I find interesting with 5 Hammarmill (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but she does have a decent engine under the hood. Around three weeks between runs since racing over 1200m at Belmont where she was near the speed throughout and had to dig in late to get the win but credit to her, she did and was strong late. Needs luck from a potentially sticky gate but commands respect.

4 City Regal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run an improved race back in trip. Under three weeks between runs since attempting to lead throughout over 1300m at Pinjarra where she gave a solid kick on speed but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Memorable Miss. They’ve tried to stretch her out in trip but 1000m looks her sweet spot and back to that distance, she appeals for sure.

1800m back to 1500m should be fine for 10 The Velvet Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) and with her form lines, I do think she is quite clearly the one to beat. She ran in the La Trice on New Years Day and worked to the line with real purpose late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Alsephina. She is absolutely flying this time in, she’s on the up and should take a power of beating.

4 Buzzoom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a mare that probably doesn’t have upside but if she holds her form, she should be around the mark. Ran two weeks ago here where she was ridden positively from the outset, sitting on speed and tried her guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Minsk Moment. I think with a more patient steer and getting W Pike aboard, she can run a much improved race.

6 Sentimental Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a mare with good upside and back in trip, I can see her filling a hole at a price. Ran in the La Trice on New Years Day where she was just behind the speed and lacked the change up speed to go with them late behind Alsephina. Has more upside than most and if this becomes a truly run 1500m, she will be one of the strongest late.

It’s hard to get away from 5 Sentimental Hero (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Huge in defeat fresh behind the very much in form The Velvet Queen before going to this track/distance two weeks ago where he was given a 12/10 by CJP, saving ground nearer the inside before getting clear, driving through gaps and away he went for a dominant win. Taj Dyson replacing CJP is a downgrade, but really, this horse looks to have a bit on them.

4 Downforce (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout from the soft gate. He ran in the Sentimental Hero race from two weeks back here in the race mentioned above. He got off the speed and found the line well, but was simply no match for the dominant winner. He maps to get a better run in transit and he does save his best for this track/distance. Definite winning hope.

1 Big Bada Boom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is four weeks between runs for Roy Rogers since racing over 1800m here when getting a soft trip in transit near the speed and battled away pretty well in defeat behind Tri For Us, who was working up to a win and duly saluted. Interesting he comes back to the mile but his record suggests that 1600m is his sweet spot, so he commands respect.

BEST BET: Race One Number 2 A Lot Of Good Men

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 10 The Velvet Queen

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 7 Cable Bay

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 8, 10

Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 8, 10

Leg Three: 10

Leg Four: 4, 5

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