2011 Newmarket Handicap preview, analysis and tips

Adam Page gives us his runner by runner preview for tomorrow’s Newmarket Handicap at Flemington racecourse, view his analysis, tips and selections.
1. Black Caviar

Australia’s best sprinter and potentially the worlds best sprinter. Unbeaten from nine starts including the most arrogant win you’ll ever see by a race horse when she took out the Lightning. Has the 58kg to carry which isn’t easy and I think for the first time in her career, she will be tested. But she should win.

2. Hay List

Was superb in the Lightning but just bumped in the great mare. A niggling injury has troubled him the past week but if he is fully fit, he can beat Black Caviar if another horse decides to put pressure on her. He has the weight pull and he is fitter.

3. Eagle Falls

Had the race run to suit in the Oakleigh Plate and powered home to win. Another international campaign is in order for this horse if he performs well here but he won’t get conditions to suit like he did last start. A place hope.

4. Grand Duels

Straight track specialist who ran well in the Lightning despite never being in the hunt. A first four hope because he is in good form.

5. Star Witness

The only horse to have been supported to beat the favourite. Was very ordinary first up at Sandown. Connections aborted plans for the Australian Guineas and instead are keeping him as a sprinter. Finished second to Black Caviar in the Patinack Farm Classic last year but he won’t beat her here.

6. Beaded

This is the blowout horse. She is no superstar but she just knows where the line is. Great ride by Mark Zahra to get the mare home at Caulfield last start and with only 52.5kg on her back, she’ll give this race a mighty shake.

7. Chasm

Talented horse and is racing in good form, but he needs 1400-1600m. Not here for him I think.

8. King Pulse

Ran his race behind the barriers in the Lightning. Then the saddle slipped in the run so forget he went around. He has the talent and is well weighted. A first four chance.

9. Response

Hard to watch if you backed her in the Oakleigh Plate. Arguably she should have won the race. She had no luck getting out and was under a hold by Williams on the line. If she gets a clear run, she can fill the placings.

10. Snapparazi

Good luck to the connections and it’ll be a thrill to have a horse in this prestigious race, but he’ll struggle here.

11. Crystal Lily

Wasn’t too bad in the Lightning after racing keenly throughout. If she rolls along in front, with only 51kg on her back she can give some cheek.

12. Hinchinbrook

Another that had no luck in the Oakleigh Plate. He bombed the start and had no luck getting a run until the final stages when flashing home for third. Peter Moody has talked this blokes chances up, saying if any horse can beat Black Caviar, it’s this one. Have to respect his opinion as he is a very good judge.

Selections (Not in order): 1 Black Caviar, 2 Hay List, 5 Star Witness, 6 Beaded

Written by Adam Page