20/7/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick

Nine races will be run and won at Randwick this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out twelve metres from the 1600m-Winning Post; Out ten metres for the remainder.

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If he does everything right, 3 Mandela (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) wins. The query being will he do everything right. He debuted at Canterbury when backed as if unbeatable and he should have won but threw the race away. Trialled here last Friday and I loved the way he went through his gears when clicked up with clear air, which was only with around 130m to go. Still looked a bit raw and new to the caper, but clearly is talented.

I think firmer footing will really help the Bjorn Baker trained 5 Frosty Rocks (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS). He has bumped into Rule The World in both career outings. Lats start at Randwick, just looked to flounder a bit on the bog track and couldn’t dash when running fourth. Know the stable has a decent opinion of him and back on a firmer track, I think he’ll run much better.

If this was a mile, I’d be tempted to put 8 War Baron (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) on top. His two runs back from a spell have been decent enough, the latest behind Exceed The Stars at Canterbury (Mandela second). He just got too far back in an on pace dominated affair but his finale wasn’t too bad. I know David Payne has a decent opinion of him. Maybe wait til he gets to the mile re a winning bet, but a must for multiples.

Think 11 Lady Demi (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) is worth something on each way here. Terry Robinson has this mare flying, but the big key is that they have been on dry tracks, so hopefully the fine weather forecast is correct and this track can dry out somewhat. Clearly best late splits of the entire meeting at her past two, finishing third at Nowra, running 32.77 for her final 600m, then running sub 34 in winning at Moruya. She’s flying and with only 50kg on her back, I’m keen on her running well.

What to do with 4 Mr Wong (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS)? Outstanding run here two back, which made him a good thing by most when he contested a Rosehill Highway three weeks ago but he wanted to lay out under pressure and was very plain behind Dulette. Visually, the Scone trial was very good. But I will say that it appeared he wanted to lay out again under pressure so Bullock stopped pressuring and the horse ran straight, so he’s still doing a bit wrong it seems, but clearly talented.

3 Alcatran (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is a Dean Mirfin trained three year old who is third up here. Resumed at Bathurst and was good in defeat behind Bel Blaster before going to the Highway here two weeks ago behind San Marco where he struggled to pick his feet up on that very testing track. Back on firmer footing here and stable wouldn’t persist coming to town I don’t think if he wasn’t going any good.

Hard to go past 3 Sir Elton (Bet Now: $1.90 TOP ODDS), an exciting animal for Adam Duggan who is 3/3 to start his career. He put them away like a good horse two back at Wyong before racing here two weeks ago where he was made to work for it but he showed his class and came away to win well. Creeping up in the weights, but just looks a Carnival class type. And Sir Elton on a Saturday…that’s alright alright alright.

6 Haut Brion Her (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) does look an exciting prospect for Chris Waller but if she is to be indeed a Stakes class mare, she’s got to keep going through her grades. Was backed as if unbeatable first up at Canterbury and won accordingly, but it wasn’t handed to her. She was forced to burn the candle both ends yet was still too classy. Keen to see how she goes.

1 Danawi (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) is the interesting one. Talented horse when right but his first up run was just awful behind River Bird, who admittedly has gone right on with it since, so the form doesn’t read too bad. Several gear changes and a handy enough tick over trial since that flop. His best is good enough to measure up here and has placed in all three runs at the track, so rather include than ignore.

Hoping the track does dry up because I reckon 1 Slow Burn (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is a decent each way bet here if that eventuates. Les Bridge trains this mare, who resumed over 1300m at Rosehill a few weeks ago when back off a very slow tempo and really had no chance behind Passage Of Time in a run that was better than what it reads on paper. Tick over trials at Randwick have been good and if you look at her form, the second up stats are a bit misleading, with solid efforts without winning/placing, including behind Quilista.

9 High Low Bet (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) deserves a crack at Saturday grade for Chris Waller. She’s no star, but is honest and comes to this level in winning form, bolting up last Wednesday at Warwick Farm, sitting off a good speed before being presented clear air and finishing best. 1400m looks ideal for her but if the track continues to dry out, that could be a negative because her best racing has come on seriously rain affected ground.

2 Shazee Lee (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) is ticking over nicely for Scott Singleton. She was massive odds when racing here two weeks ago and loomed to win a couple of weeks back here but I reckon condition just gave out late when fifth to Ljungberg. She’s getting fitter now and though would probably want the track to be genuinely heavy, I think she’s going well enough to be competitive here.

I think a firmer track will really help the Chris Waller trained 7 Dagny (Bet Now: $9.00).  She comes through the Wu Gok race from two weeks ago where she tried hard from off the speed but did race a touch keen in the run and that took her finale way from her when running fifth. Yet to win in 10 starts here, but her runs have been better than what that record says, and a drying deck is a big tick.

If the track was bottomless, I’d clearly be with 4 Wu Gok (Bet Now: $2.40). Just not sure about him on a firmer deck but he’s going great guns for Chris Waller. Beat all bar Primitivo first up before getting the job done here two weeks ago, aided by a peach from Blake Shinn, who rode the patient race behind the speed and was rewarded late. 2000m looks a big tick, and in recent runs, he’s become very reliable, albeit he’s had conditions to suit.

For wider multiples, I’d be including the Freedman trained 2 Master Of Arts (Bet Now: $15.00). He is three weeks between runs since resuming over 2000m at Rosehill where he sat back in the run and on the heavy track, he struggled in the conditions fresh behind He Ekscels. He’s good on firmer footing and does have a touch of class, so I think for exotics, I’d include him.

Want to make a case for the David Payne trained three year 8 Costello (Bet Now: $14.00). He resumed over the mile here two weeks ago and was solid in defeat behind Attention Run, just looking a bit floundered on the wet track. His career best runs have come on dry ground, and while it won’t be a 100% dry deck here, it will be firmer compared to first up, and fitter, up to 1800m, he’ll do me.

2 Loveisili (Bet Now: $4.40) is flying for Kris Lees, winning her past three. Latest of those wins came over 2100m at Warwick Farm over a month ago when ridden arrogantly by Blake Shinn and won accordingly, bolting up to score another impressive win. Not that badly in at the weights after the claim for Sam Clenton and from the good draw, will do no work in the run.

Convinced that 9 Matowi (Bet Now: $11.00) was flying for Chris Waller but had no luck go his way in the first four runs for the prep. Cold ride off a fast speed last time out at Canterbury ensured he would get his chance and on the turn, he looked the winner, but couldn’t produce the finale that Attorney did and had to settle for second. No horse of that quality here, and gets a soft gate. Definite chance.

Banking on a drying track here because I’m going the way of 1 Gresham (Bet Now: $9.50). Chris Waller trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since June 15 over 1800m at Rosehill when on speed and fighting on strongly to run third to stablemate So You Win. Back to 1400m looks okay and his tick over trial at Warwick Farm was very good. Bowman booked a good lead as well.

5 Notation (Bet Now: $3.00) is flying for Matty Dale so keen to see how she goes against the boys. Been well placed by the stable at her past couple, getting the job done and showing good ticker at various stages when challenged. Gets down in the weights after the claim for Robbie Dolan and potentially looks to get a soft lead if they press forward. If so, hard to beat.

2 Smartedge (Bet Now: $6.50) is four weeks between runs for Team Snowden since winning impressively at Eagle Farm in a Class 6 over 1400m, surging hard late to get the win. He does have upside and races best with fresh legs. My concern is the strength of those behind him last time. Form has been ordinary since, but back home and with winning form, he’s a chance.

I reckon 9 Zavance (Bet Now: $4.40) is one of the better bets on the card. This Team Snowden trained filly is three weeks between runs since contesting the Sunny Coast Guineas, where she was given a 12/10 steer by Jim Byrne and was there to win, but lacked the class to go with Baccarat Baby and had to settle for third. Back home, Randwick mile looks perfect and track won’t be bottomless like last time. Keen.

Clare Cunningham has 10 Travancore (Bet Now: $4.80) flying at the moment. Loved the way he attacked the line to win two back at Canterbury before going to Rosehill where he closed off strongly from off the pace to run third to No Escape. More depth this time around, but the Randwick mile should be right up his alley and he’s racing much more consistently this time in.

I think the rise to 1600m will suit the Paul Perry trained 5 Condor (Bet Now: $6.00). This three year old produced a fab first up win at Newcastle over 1400m, his first start in over a year. He then came 100m back in distance here two weeks ago and was solid in defeat behind Ljungberg. Up to the mile, expecting him to land on speed and third up, he should just about be at peak fitness.

Think she’s a really good each way gamble here 7 Taniko (Bet Now: $10.00), especially on a firming deck. Outstanding resumption behind November Man before two runs on wet ground. Forget the run two back behind Gongs but the run three weeks ago was full of merit behind River Bird, and her late splits in inferior ground were very good. Drying deck, back to Randwick, she’s worth something on for sure.

12 Natalia (Bet Now: $2.50) has returned in really good order for the Snowden camp. Loved the way she put them away to win first up at Gosford before racing here two weeks ago where she tried hard, looked the winner, but was nabbed late by Invictus Salute. Reckon there is more depth and she’s getting short in the market, but at peak fitness from a soft gate, she should run well.

3 Tony Nicconi (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained three year old who had been trialling up really nicely prior to resuming at Rosehill where he was caught wide no cover for the trip and faded out of the finish when down the track behind the handy grey sprinter Albumin. Been trialling too well to ignore off one below par run, so want to see him again before penning him.

BEST BET: Race One Number 3 Mandela

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 9 Zavance

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 11 Lady Demi

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 8

Leg Three: 5, 9, 10

Leg Four: 3, 7, 8, 9, 12

$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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