20/6/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Creswick Stakes day

Nine races will be run and won at Flemington on Saturday where it is Creswick Stakes Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out eleven metres for the entire circuit.

Creswick Stakes 🏆: View the Field for the Creswick Stakes

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2 Danon Roman (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) looks in for a good prep. Resumed over 1400m at Caulfield a few weeks ago in what was a fast run race and I liked the way he closed off late behind Heptagon in a really good return. His second up form is suspect, but can’t ignore what he did first up and comes into this with plenty of upside to come.

8 Ammoudi Boy (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is racing in career best form for the Symon Wilde team. Comes to this race off the back of an impressive win on testing ground at Ballarat over 1400m, getting better as the race went on, hitting the line with purpose. Off that, 1600m should be fine and gets run of the race from the gate.

9 Trigger Point (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) potentially gets a soft run off the speed. The Tolson/Proctor team has this gelding in form. Loved the way he found to put them away at Sandown last time out, albeit in a much easier race. Suspect Man Of Peace leads, Ammoudi Boy box seats and I can see Olly getting Trigger Point into the three back spot, minding his own business and being strong late.

5 Alcyone (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) on top for me. James Cummings trained colt that debuted over 1200m at Ballarat and really liked the way he found the line late when second to the handy looking and talked up Busuttin/Young colt Albarado. Ballarat in recent weeks has been track where making up significant ground has been a tough ask, so for this guy to finish off like he did bodes well.

1 Chequerboard (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) has done nothing wrong in her career to date. Showed good ticker to fend them off and win on debut on the Pakenham Synthetic before going to Sandown where she had to chase and wear Insaaf down and did so in gritty fashion. She’s got a bit of ticker this girl and think she can measure up here.

15 Agami Karma (Bet Now: $101.00 TOP ODDS) is worth another look I feel. Was keen on him when he debuted at Ballarat off the back of some nice work at the Cranbourne jumpouts, but he didn’t seem 100% happy in the conditions when midfield behind Albarado. Like him up to 1400m on the big track and think he’s a big improver at odds.

Staying at 1400m is the query with 12 So You Swing (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS), but can’t ignore her resumption at Caulfield a few weeks ago. It was one of the runs of the meeting, savaging the line from the back to run a close up fifth and clocked the best last 200m of the meeting. She looks on target for the Mares Series. Does she want a rise in trip now?

2 Great Duchess (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) hadn’t really been a proven first up performer but that all changed three weeks ago at Caulfield when knuckling down strongly to fend off and beat hard fit, in form mare in Jamaican Hurry. Can be hard to catch, but that resumption was very encouraging and I think has to be respected here.

11 Supre (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is worth another chance. Looked like she was going to win when presented wider at the top of the straight but I reckon the mid race burn Queen La Diva put on just told on Supre late, not finishing it off well enough. Think she’s going well and can sit closer in the run if need be. Definite contender here.

1 Right You Are (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) looks as if she will eat up 2000m so I’m in her corner. Didn’t appear 100% at Caulfield three weeks ago, especially when the sprint went on, but once she balanced up, she showed her class and was too good. Smoke Bomb ticked that form off last Saturday and Right You Are does look a 2000m+ type.

3 Coolth (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is worth another chance. Was really keen on him when he raced at this track/distance two weeks ago but just had too much to do from where he was, back near last in the run, and couldn’t sustain the run, finishing third in a good effort all things considered. If he can sit closer in the run, he’ll be dangerous.

Up in trip will certainly suit 6 Translator (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) for Nigel Blackiston. Ran over the mile three weeks ago at Caulfield and was just a bit flat footed when the sprint went on. Picked up and was good late behind Right You Are. Far from disgraced in a Geelong Classic during the Spring so we know the extra trip will suit, as will getting onto a bigger track.

Think a fast run 1000m is perfect for 12 The Last Napoleon (Bet Now: $8.00). Last time he ran in a fast run race was over 955m at the Valley and he was far too good for them. Resumed last Friday at Geelong and just looked in need of the run behind Sham I Am but back to 1000m and with a hot speed in front, he can finish over the top.

11 Montenegro Man (Bet Now: $7.50) back to 1000m interests me. Resumed over 1100m here on testing ground and didn’t really fire a shot behind Alfa Oro in a somewhat disappointing return given how he went towards the end of last prep. Back on firmer footing and a fast run 1000m, can see him sitting back and launching late.

7 Humzz (Bet Now: $10.00) could be one to include in multiples at a price. Jame Edwards trained son of Moshe that comes here off the back of a strong win at Mornington when put into a lovely spot under Noel Callow and the gelding was too good in the run to the line. He’s a 1000m specialist and I think can measure up here.

3 Alfarris (Bet Now: $5.00) looks ready to do something positive here. Two runs back from a break have come over 2000m, the latest being three weeks ago at Caulfield when closing off nicely behind Mahamedeis. He’s screaming out for further, which he gets here and IMO saves his best for Flemington. Really hard to beat here.

1 Mahamedeis (Bet Now: $7.50) can win again. Was working up to a win and it finally came at Caulfield a few weeks back. The win had merit because Hang Man put a margin on him and looked home, but Mahamedeis didn’t turn it up, kept finding and was strongest on the line. Good efforts at this track in the past and now he has a win on the board, he can go on with it.

9 Starcaster (Bet Now: $11.00) is a working progress for Anthony Freedman. Struggled on wet ground in a couple of runs but found firmer footing here a fortnight back. He took an absolute eternity to wind up but was good late behind Chapada. I still think he’s 6-12 months away from showing his best, but certainly has enough talent to figure in the finish here.

3 Alburq (Bet Now: $16.00) looks cherry ripe for this event. Michael Moroney trains this three year old, who comes back to 1200m after racing over 1400m here two weeks ago, closing off nicely late to run second to the very progressive Jolly Sailor. Luckless down the straight start prior behind the above average Roccabascerana, so that form reads well for this.

This will be a decent guide as to whether or not 10 Front Page (Bet Now: $8.50) is a contender or pretender. His two runs/wins back from a break have visually looked outstanding. The first of the wins at Albury was by nearly ten lengths under a hold like a barrier trial. Second win came at Wangaratta and again, impressive, albeit the times was nothing to jump up and down about, so fear he may be early unders, but hard to knock the way he’s going.

7 I Am Eloquent (Bet Now: $9.00) is a daughter of I Am Invincible for the Busuttin/Young camp that ran in the Euclase during the Adelaide Carnival at Morphettville and her run was full of merit. Was wide throughout on that hot speed and was entitled to throw in the towel, but kept chipping away and was game in defeat, running third to Xilong. You’d like to think there is room for upside. Just a matter of whether that run has taken it out of her but a recent jumpout was pretty good.

It’s been a tick over 12 months since 4 Mr Marathon Man (Bet Now: $19.00) has greeted the judge first but I think he can change that here. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago and was held up at a vital stage when Stackhouse was trying to build the revs and should have finished closer behind Vassilator. If the rub of the green goes his way this time around, can run a big race at odds.

6 Vassilator (Bet Now: $8.50) hadn’t won in a little while but he got a deserving win on the board over this track/distance two weeks ago, given a lovely ride by Willow and surging hard late to nab Haunted near the peg. Hadn’t done a great deal since the 2018 Caulfield Guineas behind The Autumn Sun but now he has a win on the board, he could go on with it.

The weight relief and getting to 1400m are two big ticks for the Shawn Mathrick trained 8 Rich Itch (Bet Now: $15.00). Was keen on him at odds in the Golden Topaz at Swan Hill but just had the 61kg impost and he couldn’t sprint well enough behind King Of Hastings but was far from disgraced. Gets good weight relief and is a Stakes winner at this track/distance.

If you can trust the resumption, 4 Rich Charm (Bet Now: $7.00) looks the one to beat. Resumed off a decent spell in the Straight Six and gee he was an eye catcher when flashing late to run a narrow second to a swimmer in Great Again, who packed too many punches. His straight track form is very good and if he runs up to that effort, think he goes close.

Can 2 Prezado (Bet Now: $5.00) stretch his brilliance to 1100m? He’s been dominant over 1000m at his past three, winning each time and has seemingly got better each time he has stepped out, the latest seeing him bolt up two weeks ago. 1000m is his A1 trip and anything away from that has seen him fail. Is he a different horse now?

8 I Am Someone (Bet Now: $6.00) is three weeks between runs for Paul Preusker since resuming at Caulfield where I thought he was very good in defeat behind Tavisan, his first run since October 25. The run was a definite pass mark and you’d like to think he’ll come on from that outing, likely draws the best part of the track, hard to beat.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 Alfarris

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 1 Right You Are

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 3 Alburq

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 7, 10

Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 8

Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 8

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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