20/3/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, William Reid Stakes night

With 1 Sam’s Image (Bet Now: $3.90) in the opener. John Sadler trains this gelding, who resumed in a 955m Heat here and after being tardy away, that sealed his fate. Actually did a good job to get as close as he did when fourth. Senior jock on and if he can take advantage of gate one, up to 1200m, he’s going to give this a decent shake.

I’ll take a punt on including 8 Fallen Empire (Bet Now: $6.50), a quality galloper that is resuming from a long spell for the Ellerton/Zahra team. This five year old hasn’t raced since late 2018 when winning well over 1400m at Flemington. Has had the benefit of two jumpouts in readiness for his return, so I think best to watch the yard/market before charging in.

6 Cashed Up (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Patrick Payne trained five year old that was a few weeks between runs when racing over 1170m during the Wangaratta Carnival and I think he was a bit unlucky not to finish closer. Was forced to make his run nearer the inside, which wasn’t the A1 ground. Impressive win start prior and hard to knock anything the stable is saddling up at the moment.

10 Wings Of Pastrami (Bet Now: $4.80) is a very interesting runner. Jeff Searle trained filly that is resuming, having not raced since December 14 at Flemington when a sharp winner over 1400m, beating some good types and landing good bets at odds. Looked good in a recent trial win and she’ll be strong at the end of this I’m sure.

6 Overkill (Bet Now: $3.10) is a Maher/Eustace trained colt that had trialled up well prior to resuming at this track/distance and I liked the way he toughed it out on speed to get the win. On face value, wasn’t 100% sure if the form would hold up but there’s been two winners to come from it and the time was okay for the night.

5 Nerone (Bet Now: $18.00) is a son of Hallowed Crown for James Cummings that resumes. This three year old hasn’t raced since sitting on speed in a Bendigo Maiden and under a lovely ride from Brad Rawiller was able to kick on strongly and get that elusive win. Think his recent jumpout was encouraging and can run a race here at odds.

Not sure what upside he has got left, but I think the safe option is 1 Larimer Street (Bet Now: $3.40). He ran in the VRC Sires at Flemington over 1400m when doing work on speed and tried hard but 1400m probably just saw him out in the end when second to Lunar Fox. Back to 1200m and back to this level, he looks one of the hardest to beat.

9 Montia (Bet Now: $3.80) is the unknown. Hayes/Dabernig filly that debuted at this track/distance and while I doubt she beat much, she was impressive in winning. To the eye that was. On the clock, it was poor, but times aren’t everything. Sometimes you just have to trust your eye and to the eye, she was sharp, so including her.

6 Mystery Dancer (Bet Now: $7.00) is a son of Akeed Mofeed for Brent Stanley that had been impressive at the jumpouts prior to debuting down the Flemington straight where he led and gave a good kick under Prebble, but couldn’t quite finish it off when beaten near the peg by Pioneer River. He’ll take good improvement from that and will be out of trouble on speed.

10 Relucent (Bet Now: $3.40) is a Chris Waller trained three year old that is potentially on the Derby path but would need to win here in order to go down that route. Ran over the mile at Flemington last start and worked home really strongly late to run fourth, looking like a horse that clearly wants further, which is what he gets here. Hard to beat.

13 Classic Bright (Bet Now: $15.00) is a son of Redoute’s Choice for the WaterBott team that could be a sleeper for the Derby with a win here. Gave them a spanking to break the maiden tag at Goulburn two back before going to 1800m at Stony Creek when leading throughout and although he was getting the staggers late, he was too good. Can he stretch out to 2000m? Gets his chance here.

5 Cape Richards (Bet Now: $15.00) has done an outstanding job since joining Nathan Hobson. Big win from the back over the mile here two back before remaining at the mile last start at Ballarat and finished off with real purpose, but just missed out. Like him up to 2040m, clearly likes the Valley and does find a winnable assignment.

1 Epic Grey (Bet Now: $6.00) has done an excellent job since coming to Melbourne, racing four times, with wins at his past two, the latest in a Heat of this Series when knuckling down strongly and finding plenty under pressure to win. He’s a horse who loves to race on the fresh side and that last start win was on Feb 14. Hard to beat.

10 The Commoner (Bet Now: $11.00) is the one with the lightweight and good form at this track. Ran in a Heat of this Series last start when back on the fence before eventually getting clear late and surging hard to just miss out on the win behind Our Gladiator. May get buried back on the fence but does have a booming finish on her.

9 Rebel Miss (Bet Now: $18.00) is a speedy mare for Matty Smith that looks primed to run well. This Series does look her go in life, though she was beaten in a Heat of this race last start, albeit copped too much pressure on speed. Been given a break and her two trials leading in have been outstanding. If the breaks go her way, she can win.

Going for some value in the shape of 11 Kristalove (Bet Now: $17.00). Can’t see much early pressure here and with Meech on, expecting this girl to lead, which is what she did at Ballarat last start over 1400m when controlling things in front under Brad Rawiller and was too good. If she can control and get a cheap furlong or two, she could prove hard to catch at odds.

4 Betcha Flying (Bet Now: $5.50) is worth another chance I feel. Forget she went around first up on the Kenso track. First two out were the first two home and they totally dominated from the front, leaving those from the back with no hope, including this filly. Firmer footing and getting to 1600m against her own age/sex, she can bounce back for sure.

2 Meuse (Bet Now: $5.50) is a handy enough filly for Anthony Freedman who was an impressive first up winner over 1100m before stepping up to 1400m in the Vanity on a somewhat testing track and I thought she was far from disgraced when fourth to Bonvicini. Little query at 1600m, but with a soft trip in transit, she does have a good turn of foot.

I think 11 Loving Gaby (Bet Now: $4.60) can turn the tables on Bivouac in what should be a cracking edition of the William Reid. She was outstanding in defeat first up in the Lightning before going to the Newmarket where unfortunately she drew nearer the inside and the better ground looked to be a bit wider. Was still terrific behind Bivouac. Back to a bending track, hard fit, sitting off a fast speed, happy to be in her corner.

9 Bivouac (Bet Now: $2.60) is a James Cummings trained colt that was okay without being good in the Oakleigh Plate first up behind Pippie. Bounced back in a big way in the Newmarket when on speed under Bossy and really, 400m out it was race over. He was trucking and won so arrogantly. Can he make amends for his Manikato loss?

Dry deck, rail true, 7 Pippie (Bet Now: $14.00) is not going to be disadvantaged by rolling on speed. The Oakleigh Plate winner hasn’t raced since that Group l win when leading throughout with sustained speed coming to the fore. The form has been outstanding since and yes, a little risk at 1200m at this level, but she’ll get every chance here.

Bet of the night IMO in 4 Princess Jenni (Bet Now: $2.60). David Briedoake trains this quality mare, who resumed over 1400m at Flemington in a fast run race and really liked the way she finished her race off behind Wild Planet in a very encouraging return. 3/3 second up and two of those have come over this track/distance. Think only bad luck beats her.

6 Fidelia… (Bet Now: $12.00) couldn’t back her to win to save my life really because she just cannot be trusted, but I will say she’s racing well. Closed off well behind Sylvia’s Mother two back before backing up a week later in the Matron where Prebble rode her positively, something different, and again was solid in defeat, but didn’t win. A chance for sure, goes in all multiples…but couldn’t back to win.

10 Moonlight Maid (Bet Now: $21.00) is a quality filly for Mitch Freedman that resumes. This girl has always showed good talent since day one and somewhat produced her best in the Spring, scoring an impressive win in the Edward Manifold before placing in the Vase and Oaks. 1600m first up tells me the work has been put in for a forward showing, she has class…is she better suited on bigger tracks though?

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Princess Jenni

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Sam’s Image

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 11 Kristalove

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 5, 9, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 11

Leg Three: 1, 7, 8, 9, 11

Leg Four: 4

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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