20/12/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

A seven race program has been set down for Flemington on Wednesday for Kensington Stakes Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out fourteen metres for the entire circuit.

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9 Glowlight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win her maiden. She ran in a 1200m maiden at Sandown last time when near the speed throughout and fought on quite gamely in defeat I thought behind impressive winner Ginger N Pink. She is hard fit, racing well and nearing a win. I think with home track advantage, the win comes here.

7 Rewards And More (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Reward For Effort for Jerome Hunter that is on debut. This guy has jumped out on a couple of occasions and each time he has caught the eye, the latest coming at Sandown where he was near the speed before being clicked up and he showed nice change up speed to win and win well. Craig Williams aboard and he does ride for this stable with good success so he commands respect.

5 Halvar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a horse with decent talent. Griffiths/De Kock trained three year old that debuted over 1000m at Ballarat where he got a fair way out of his ground and was never really a threat but I loved the way he found the line late in the piece behind Degreeofdifficulty. Better for that run under the belt, up to 1200m, he’ll be hard to hold out.

6 Celestial Storm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the best on the program for me. Griffiths/De Kock trains this filly, who resumes after a solid Winter/Spring prep, which ended with a down the track effort here in the Cap D’Antibes behind Shesallshenanigans. Given a break, loved the way she won her recent jumpout at Cranbourne and with B Shinn booked, I think there is clear intent.

1 Mere Morsel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Williams trained gelding that is first up. He only had one run when last in work, which ended up being a dominant maiden win at Seymour where he handled the wet track comfortably and was impressive the way he drew clear. Trial work has been more than encouraging and I think he will be strong at the end.

2 Reward Tha Master (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. This guy resumed at Corowa where he got back and wide in the run, which at Corowa equals bad news, so the fact he did make up ground, the run was a definite pass mark in defeat. Not sure he is good enough to win but he can pinch a first four spot.

3 Sans Doute (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me in an open sprint race. Mark Walker trains this mare, who has been pretty good since arriving from NZ. Latest run came over 1000m at The Valley where she got a fair way back off the fast speed and found the line well enough but was never really threatening behind all the way winner Aminatu. Gets in well after the claim and drawn out, she’ll get clear air, be within range and launch late.

1 Arctic Fairy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Zoustar for Matty Ellerton that resumes. She is first up, having not raced since March 25 when down the track in the Sunlight Classic behind a potential star, What You Need, producing an end of prep run. Jumpout work has been more than encouraging and with home track advantage, she commands respect.

6 It’s My Turn (Bet Now:  $SP.00) isn’t one I could back to win this, but for wider exotics, she can be entertained. This mare ran at The Bool last time where she got back off the speed and was solid to the line in chasing but she seemingly had every chance behind It’s Kind Of Magic, finishing third. Consistent mare that is around the mark and can run top four for sure.

9 Wallenda (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. Maher/Eustace colt that comes here off the back of a strong win at Yarra Valley where he sat on speed throughout before being clicked up by Cartwright and away he went, winning and winning quite comfortably in a pretty sharp display. That was his first run in a month so with room for improvement, he’ll do me in an open race.

8 Ruada (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a nice horse for Simon Zahra. He debuted in the Autumn on a wet deck at Werribee and struggled in the conditions behind Archo Nacho before going to Bendigo after a spell, sitting off the speed and coming with a well timed run to get a narrow but impressive win. Confident he can measure up here.

10 Vallencourt (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hit and miss at times but she is handy when on song for Michael Shepherdson. Her last start came over 1300m at Geelong where she produced sustained speed from the front and gave nothing else a look in, winning quite impressively. Several weeks between runs should be fine and with an on speed pattern, she appeals as a knockout hope.

7 Chester Warrior (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me. Team Hayes trained gelding that comes back miles in grade/depth after racing in the Magic Millions at Ballarat where he really struggled to pick his feet up in the conditions behind Baroque Road. Back on firmer footing is a big tick and against a field like this, he will do me on top but not really a race I want to get involved in.

10 Miss Icelandic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. Matt Laurie trained mare ran at The Valley last start where she got a dream run in transit from the gate and loomed to win but couldn’t quite get there when a close up third to Cantina. Hasn’t done much wrong in a six start career and seems to have found a winnable race.

1 Mr Moppett (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has run well at Flemington previously and looks to have returned in super order. He resumed during the Snake Gully Carnival at Gundagai where he gave them a start and a beating over 1000m, letting down with a brilliant finale to score. Tick over Corowa trial was quite good, he’s drawn the right part of the track and gets in well after the claim.

5 Mornington Glory (Bet Now:  $SP.00) does seem effective as a short course animal and has fresh legs, having not raced since Nov 22 at Sandown over 1200m where he seemingly had his chance but that said, he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Prancing Spirit. Fresh legs and back to 1100m, gee he looks well placed in a race like this.

9 Luna Cat (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a consistent mare for Team Hayes that commands respect. She ran several weeks ago on Cranbourne Cup Day where she was off the speed and loomed to win but couldn’t quite get the job done when a narrow second to Pink Beau Ty. Has run well at Flemington previously and she does get in well after the claim.

8 Defiant Diva (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Dissident that resumes for Team Corstens. This girl is first up, having not raced since July 29 at The Valley when producing an end of prep run when down the track behind Lievore on a day where up/in was the spot, which is where she was, but she was found to be lame. Likely spots them a start but will be strong late.

3 Najem Suhail (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems to save his best for Flemington and off his recent runs, he is the way I am leaning. He last raced in the Century on Oaks Day when chasing strongly late and just getting the win over a talented animal in Spacewalk. Has been kept on ice with these short course Summer sprint races in mind and he loves Flemington, plus gets B Shinn. He’ll do me.

2 Malkovich (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another that loves the straight course and the stable is becoming one of the best when it comes to travelling for a hit and run. He resumed in the Starlight at Rosehill when attempting to lead throughout and he gave a strong kick but he couldn’t quite get the job done when a close up third to Dragonstone. Good improvement to come, he’ll take running down.

1 Halvorsen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the better straight track gallopers going around. Stablemate of Najem Suhail that ran third in the Century, sitting off the speed and closed off with real purpose, beaten just under two lengths. Andrew Mallyon gets on really well with the horse and with the small, he’ll be hard to beat if he’s within range.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 6 Celestial Storm

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Mornington Glory

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 7 Chester Warrior

Quaddie (Races Four Through To Seven):

Leg One: 3, 8, 9, 10

Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 7, 10

Leg Three: 5

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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