20/10/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Geelong, Geelong Cup day

A strong nine race card has been set down for Geelong on Wednesday for Geelong Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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10 Point Nepean (Bet Now: $3.90) just has to be fit and he wins. I’ve got a bit of time for this former Irish galloper, making his Australian debut for Rob Hickmott and Team Williams. He was brought over here with potentially an eye towards the Melbourne Cup but they are starting off a low base. Two runs back home resulted in a debut win before a solid effort over 2400m in a tidy race. I think he has a bit on this lot.

7 Nobel Heights (Bet Now: $3.30) is third up here for Matt Cumani and should just about be at peak fitness. He was second up at Mornington and looked to be trucking in the run, but was no match late for Herman Hesse, running second. He’s one of the hardest to beat.

2 Grey Khan (Bet Now: $6.50) lacks the class of some of these, but gee he’s a beauty for the Gelagotis team. Led throughout over 2460m at Geelong last time. He was there to be run down but found plenty under pressure and fended them off for a strong win. He’ll put himself on speed and run a cheeky race.

12 Vitruvius (Bet Now: $4.20) is flying. Brett Prebble is the form rider in Melbourne at the moment but he butchered this horse at Ballarat last time. Stevie Wonder could see the inside section was off but Prebble elected to stay towards the inside and no doubt it cost the horse the race. Drawn out, should get three wide cove and launch late.

Fresh legs and back in trip I find interesting with 1 Coolth (Bet Now: $4.60). Several weeks between runs since racing over 2500m at Flemington where he didn’t set the world on fire and was quite plain I thought behind Tooradin. He has the talent to win. Just whether he has the desire is the query.

6 Translator (Bet Now: $21.00) can be a big improver here. Nigel Blackiston trained gelding that resumed at the Valley and on paper, it was a nothing run, but it was a night where on speed was absolute gold and this horse had no chance. Track/distance winner, an improved showing is definitely on the cards.

Staying at 1400m I hate for 2 Confrontational (Bet Now: $10.00), but he has the strong form lines. Resumed at the trip at Sale and for mine, should have won, but had no luck in the straight when seemingly bolting. The winner of the race was Saltpeter, who won at Caulfield on Saturday, so the form has been ticked off well and truly. If this was a mile, he’d be a good thing. But I’m still happy to be in his corner.

7 Kohli (Bet Now: $5.00) is a progressive animal for Archie Alexander. He looked a good thing on paper last time out at Benalla but for a few strides, it looked like it would be ugly viewing, but he managed to get clear and drove hard late to win. Lands in a plum spot from the draw and is hard to beat.

8 Ultimate Edition (Bet Now: $9.50) should put himself on speed and try hard. Resumed over the trip at Benalla where he attempted to lead throughout and he did give a solid kick, but was no match for Galactic Fury. He is a head strong horse but Jye McNeil is becoming a gun front running rider.

I’m pretty keen here on 8 Unanimous (Bet Now: $3.80) for the Maher/Eustace camp. He has been quite good in two runs back from a spell. Resumed with a fast finishing third at Wangaratta. He then went to Bendigo and was good late from the back behind a proven metro performer, Kalashani Lad. Hopefully can sit closer in the run from the draw and gets a jockey upgrade.

13 Castile (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Lonhro colt for Team Snowden that resumes. This guy had a two run prep as a juvenile, winning on debut at Sale before going to the Elvstroem Classic at Swan Hill when on speed and feeling the pinch late. Looked good in a recent jumpout and should get a suck run from the gate.

15 Heroic Chief (Bet Now: $13.00) deserves another chance. Market took a set against him last time out when racing at this track. He had good cover behind the speed and loomed on the turn but tired badly late. Olly takes the ride, should get three wide cover and his best is good enough.

I’m with 4 River Twain (Bet Now: $4.00) but not a great deal of confidence in what looks an even race on paper. Resumes for the Price/Kent team with some strong form lines around him as a three year old. Couple of strong jumpouts to get ready, just needs to overcome a tricky gate and I think he’s a safe option.

6 Crestani (Bet Now: $3.00) is a talented animal for Pat Carey that comes here around a month between runs since a game effort at Caulfield when a closing fourth to Dirty Thoughts, who has since gone on to win at Stakes level. Seems to race best on the fresh side and finds a winnable race.

9 Redsnap (Bet Now: $6.50) rises a fair bit in grade from last prep, but the overall form around him doesn’t read too bad. He resumes for Brett Scott, ending last prep with a couple of wins on the bounce. Looked to move well in a recent jumpout and can sit near the speed.

1 Tutukaka (Bet Now: $5.00) gets the Blinkers off which I find interesting. Tony Pike trained three year old that hasn’t set the world on fire this time in, the latest run being the Super Impose when on speed and tiring late behind El Patroness in what was a fast run race. Perhaps a more conservative steer will spark him into action. If he’s going to be a Derby horse, he has to be winning this.

6 Grinzinger King (Bet Now: $4.60) is racing like he will eat up 2200m. Strong maiden win two back before going to the Derby Trial at Flemington when back against the track pattern and was good late behind Gundec. Blinkers on to sharpen him up and looks suited up in trip.

8 Daario (Bet Now: $23.00) is big odds here I feel. I think he can a big improver due to a few reasons. First, he gets out to a staying trip. Second, he finds firmer footing and third, forget last start. He didn’t handle Kyneton and onto a bigger track, I think he will only run well and $20+ for him is silly.

I can’t believe 1 Mirage Dancer (Bet Now: $23.00) is $18+. He is getting on in years yes, but this is the easiest race he has contested in a long, long time and just has outstanding form lines. Far from disgraced in a Herbert Power, he loves dry ground, stable in form…can’t work out why he’s such a big price.

8 Tralee Rose (Bet Now: $2.15) is a deserving favourite given the strong form lines she has. Her last start resulted in a game second to Grand Promenade in the Bart Cummings, a high rating race. Needs to win this to be any chance of getting into the Melbourne Cup, so she will be popular.

5 Amade (Bet Now: $23.00) is unbeaten third up so want to give him another chance. He was near the fast speed in the Bart Cummings and that early work just told late. His best is good enough to beat these, then run well in a Melbourne Cup, so don’t put a line through him.

1400m back to 1200m I love for 8 Best Stone (Bet Now: $8.00). Despised outsider in the Rose Of Kingston at Flemington but she ran out of her skin I thought when fourth to Still A Star. Saves her best for 1200m, lands in a plum spot from the draw and for mine, she only runs well.

3 How Womantic (Bet Now: $2.80) looks one of the hardest to beat. Resumed over 1000m at Sandown on Underwood and closed off her race with real purpose when third to Esta La Roca. Runner up was Bless Her and she ran second at Caulfield on the weekend so the form reads well.

1 Night Raid (Bet Now: $15.00) has a touch of class about her and the stable is absolutely flying at the moment. This mare resumed behind Bella Nipotina at Caulfield and for mine, just looked in need of the run. Back to this level I like for her and she gets a suck run from the gate.

3 Fifth Position (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Price/Kent trained gelding that resumes. This former UK galloper had a solid debut prep down under, albeit without a win, but did run well at metro level in some tidy races. Better suited over a bit further, and drawn wide, but has a touch of quality.

13 Love Sensation (Bet Now: $4.60) should be suited back this level. Has contested Stakes races her past couple. Good two back in the Let’s Elope before a down the track effort in the Rose Of Kingston. Much better suited here and off the Let’s Elope run, she’s hard to beat.

7 Rainbow Thief (Bet Now: $9.50) can win this without surprising. He was specked at odds last time out under the lights at the Valley and if you were on, apologies for bringing up the nightmare. Gee he should have gone close to winning but couldn’t get clear at a vital stage. Olly on from gate one, he should get every chance.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 12 Vitruvius

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 8 Unanimous

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 1 Mirage Dancer

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 8, 14

Leg Three: 1, 3, 8, 10

Leg Four: 3, 7, 8, 13

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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