The Randwick Carnival concludes this Saturday where it is City Tatts Cup Day. The weather is overcast, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out eight metres from the 1600m-Winning Post; Out six metres for the remainder.
Race 1. (12:30) Kirkham Plate 1000m
3 Bivouac (Bet Now: $3.80 FAT ODDS) for me. Son of Exceed And Excel on debut for the Godolphin team and yes, he was beaten four lengths by Time To Reign in a barrier trial last week, but what I liked about this horse is that when given a squeeze, he responded and charged to the line and through it. That tells me he’ll get through a wet track no problem. Gate one a big tick also.
6 Time To Reign (Bet Now: $3.20 FAT ODDS) is a Gary Portelli trained colt who is a close relation to She Will Reign so he should come to handy, and that looks the case off the back of a dominant trial win last Monday at Warwick Farm when bolting up and running time under minimal pressure. Think he can only run well here.
2 Absolute Control (Bet Now: $12.00 FAT ODDS) is a Joe Pride trained colt on debut. He has trialled twice in readiness for his first start, the latest trial being behind Time To Reign and I think that horse had his measure, but he ran well enough. The trial prior on firmer ground was quite good and I think that will be the key to his chances.
Race 2. (13:05) Daily Press Handicap (74) 1600m
5 Ulusaba (Bet Now: $2.90 FAT ODDS) for me. WaterBott trains this gelding, who comes here off the back of a maiden win at Wyong last Thursday where he got a lovely run near the speed under Hippo and once he gave the horse a dig in the ribs on the turn, the race was pretty much over. Not that much depth here and he has upside, and a wet track no issue.
1 Quackerjack (Bet Now: $4.60 FAT ODDS) looks a serious winning chance if he brought anywhere near his best. He comes through the Dulcify where he attempted to lead all the way and he gave a solid enough kick but just couldn’t quite see it out behind Mickey Blue Eyes. Trialled well since and being by Not A Single Doubt, he should swim.
4 Lucky Helmet (Bet Now: $7.00 FAT ODDS) is a John O’Shea trained filly who is showing good promise. Ran over the mile at Wyong last week and I think it was largely the steer from Avdulla that got her the win, saving ground and cuddling her for the most part until pushing the button when he needed to. Has upside and wet track over the mile looks no issue.
Race 3. (13:40) TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1100m
15 Handle The Truth (Bet Now: $5.50 FAT ODDS) looks the one. The Dryden/Collings stable look to have a really nice three year old on their hands here and he proved that when winning a Highway at Rosehill back on September 8. First go at 1200m and it was on a bog yet the punters latched on and the bets were landed. Like him fresh and back in trip. If it was 1000m, he’d be a special. Still think he can get the win at 1100m.
3 Lifesaver (Bet Now: $6.50 FAT ODDS) is flying for Matty Dunn. Beaut steer from Angland got him home fresh at Rosehill before racing in a Highway over 1000m here where he was enormous in defeat. He had no chance of winning given the lead/winner ran 33.4 final 600m. He would have had to run Winx-like sectionals to win. Like him up in trip.
Keep an eye on 2 Can’t Find Snippy (Bet Now: $17.00 FAT ODDS), a talented mare resuming for Michelle Ritchie. This girl hasn’t raced since the Wagga Carnival when wide no cover and fading late behind an above average animal in Equal Balance. She’s a really good fresh horse and overall, she has very strong provincial form, including a placing behind Provincial Championships winner Serene Miss.
Race 4. (14:15) City Tatts Cup 2400m
4 High Bridge (Bet Now: $2.10 FAT ODDS) clearly on top. Chris Waller trains this galloper, and he did say after a recent win that he has Melbourne Cup aspirations for this horse so perhaps the path of winning this and then the Lexus to qualify maybe? It warrants a look because his run in the Metropolitan behind Patrick Erin was a beauty and this looks a significant drop in depth, plus the give in the track is perfect.
6 Exoteric (Bet Now: $6.50 FAT ODDS) is a hard fit/in form stayer for Chris Waller. He was well supported a couple of Fridays back in the Port Macquarie Cup where Tommy got him into a really good spot just off the pace and from the home turn onwards, it was a rather painless watch. The 2400m is no issue and he has to be respected.
If it’s last man standing, 1 Destiny’s Kiss (Bet Now: $9.00 FAT ODDS) is the pony to watch out for. Ran in the Colin Stephen at Rosehill four weeks ago and was far from disgraced for mine behind Miss Admiration. Finally gets a wet track and his Randwick 2400m record is just outstanding. Proven weight carrier and will go close as always in these kind of races.
Race 5. (14:50) Kogaroo Handicap (88) 1600m
Having a throw at the stumps via 9 Smart As You Think (Bet Now: $11.00), a John McArdle trained mare who comes to Sydney after a couple of pleasing efforts in Victoria to start the prep, the latest being the Bairnsdale Cup when a close up third to Our Bottino. Handles a wet track and she does have an awful winning strike rate, but she has contested some high quality races throughout her career.
5 All Too Soon (Bet Now: $4.50) is a David Payne trained mare who should run well here. Drops a bit in depth after racing in the Angst two weeks ago where she was far from disgraced in what looked a strong mares race won by I Am Serious. That was her first run in three weeks so hopefully there is room for improvement.
8 Arraignment (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Joe Pride trained galloper who was scratched from an easier race on Wednesday in preference for this. Former Kiwi who has taken his time to build up fitness but I thought there was merit in his last start third at this track/distance a fortnight back when third to the in form Zourkhan. Likes a track with give and remains down in the weights.
Race 6. (15:30) Brian Crowley Stakes 1200m
Just leaning the way of 7 Roosevelt (Bet Now: $2.60) but this is a ripping race. He was very good off a moderate tempo fresh at Caulfield behind Written By before going to Warwick Farm where it was a bog but he won as if it was a good track, racing right away and spanking the older horses. Repeats that effort here and he’ll go close.
I’m very wary of 9 Diplomatico (Bet Now: $2.50) for Team Hawkes. He has always had a bit of a boom on him since day one but showcased it finally when he resumed on the Kensington track here, bolting up. Time was very good relative to the day and he had a bit in hand. Just has to handle the class rise to go close.
If we get a firmer surface, expect improvement from 5 Legend Of Condor (Bet Now: $17.00). Unlucky not to finish closer two back in the Run To The Rose behind Lean Mean Machine before going to the Roman Consul where he didn’t seem entirely happy on the wet track. I reckon he’s going well but just needs a firmer track.
Race 7. (16:10) The Nivison 1200m
9 Resin (Bet Now: $7.50) looks extremely hard to beat for mine. She’s in the game for sure. Loved her resumption at Rosehill behind stablemate Soothing before racing there again where she faced another bog but handled it rather comfortably and won with ease, carrying 59kg. Got blacktype written all over her and I think she can measure up.
2 Pecans (Bet Now: $4.80) is a daughter of Skilled resuming for Joe Pride. This mare has really come of age in the last 12 months, being a benchmark horse at one stage to now resuming as a multiple Stakes winner. Had three runs last time in, winning the Godolphin Crown fresh before a close up effort at Randwick then failing in the Dane Ripper. Loves a track with give in it and has looked sharp in a couple of trials.
11 Warranty (Bet Now: $14.00) has to be respected for Team Snowden. Thought McDonald rode a very negative race on the mare at this track/distance two weeks ago and for mine it cost her the win when second to Man Of Peace. She can sit much closer in the run this time around and being third up, she should be ready fitness wise.
Race 8. (16:55) ClubNSW Handicap (94) 1200m
Hard to knock a horse who wants to win and that is what 6 Maximus (Bet Now: $3.00) is for Team Snowden. Enormous in defeat fresh behind Soothing behind Rosehill before going to this track/distance where Tommy saved ground nearer the inside from the good draw and once he got the split, the horse dashed and put them away. Confident he can repeat the dose.
7 Passage Of Time (Bet Now: $16.00) is a big watch. Joe Pride trains this handy five year old, who I think you should put a line through when it comes to last prep because he faced hard tracks throughout before finally getting a bog in the last run but by then he was a tired horse behind Noire. Much better suited here fresh on wet ground and is a good horse first up.
8 Top Striker (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Greg Hickman trained galloper who has been up for a while but continues to race really well. He ran over 1100m at Rosehill on September 9 where he got back and worked home strongly to run fourth to Soothing. Up to 1200m again looks ideal and he is a horse who loves give in the ground.
Race 9. (17:35) Jem Computer Systems Handicap (88) 1400m
Is this the prep where 15 Mahalangur (Bet Now: $5.00) finally put its all together? He’s been promising to be a Stakes class horse for some time but is yet to deliver on that promise. He ticked the first box fresh at Warwick Farm. Had to put away a moderate field and he did it quite comfortably in the end. Straight to Saturday grade now, I’ll take a chance on him and see if he’s a contender or pretender.
2 Karavali (Bet Now: $19.00) is a quality mare resuming for the Kris Lees team. This girl hasn’t raced since July when finishing down the track here behind Just Shine, racing like a really tired horse. Would have liked maybe a bit more time off for her, but the fact she’s back and with two trials under the belt tells me she’s ready to go.
Have no idea what to do with 1 Articus (Bet Now: $51.00). He wins this if he puts everything together and brings his best, which was good enough to see him run in the Caulfield Cup back in 2016 where he was a $9.50 chance behind Jameka but had nothing go his way. Was sent to Weir and he couldn’t work his magic. Now with Kris Lees, I find him a fascinating runner.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 15 Mahalangur
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 5 Ulusaba
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 9 Resin
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 7, 9
Leg Two: 2, 8, 9, 11
Leg Three: 2, 6, 7, 8
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 15
$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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