2/5/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warrnambool, Brierly Steeplechase day

The iconic three day Warrnambool Carnival kicks off on Tuesday, headlined by the Brierly Steeplechase (3450m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Brierly Steeplechase 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Brierly Steeplechase

Pretty keen on 6 King’s Charisma (Bet Now:  $SP.00) in the opener. Maher/Eustace trains this gelding, that is first up, having not raced since November 11 when down the track at the Sunny Coast over 2200m. He’s been an enigma but is clearly being set to be a jumper this prep. Three jumps trials under the belt, the latest at Terang, and he seemingly jumped clean, with his flat speed really notable. Think he’ll be winning comfortably.

7 Pure Deal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the key and I dare say only real threat to King’s Charisma. He’s had two runs back from a spell, resuming with a solid fourth over 2000m at Ballarat before going to a Pakenham Maiden Hurdle and kept finding the line from off the speed when third to Circle The Sun. He clearly likes wet ground so if rain does hit the track, he’ll be around the mark.

4 Gunaluva (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Symon Wilde purchased this former NSW stayer with eyes towards jumping and he makes his jumps debut here. He wasn’t the best at jumping in his respective Terang trial but moved pretty well I thought when second to Vividredsky and had something in the locker. Not sure he wins this, but can certainly fill a first four spot.

5 Killourney (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I think, could be a moral. His jumping leaves a lot to be desired, but it was noteworthy that he trialled over the Steeples at Warrnambool rather than the Hurdles at Terang, and his last couple of jumps were plain, but his flat speed just stood out. He moved very well in the straight under a hold. If he jumps half decent, and the track isn’t too bad, could be a case of good luck beating him.

8 Teofilo Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win. Jumps debut came at Pakenham where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a very strong kick but was run down late by Circle The Sun in a slog to the line up the straight. The claim for Rawiller certainly helps his cause, he’ll sit forward and take running down, looking the winner for a long way.

One of the more fascinating runners on the program is 3 Half Mast (Bet Now:  $SP.00), a Declan Maher trained gelding that is on debut. I can’t recall seeing a horse making his race debut in a jumps race in Australia but a tick for him is a Terang trial win last week where he was pushed out but responded well and found the line to win. I think watch the market and see what it does with him.

5 Impulsar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the moral on the program. Very nice horse for the Maher/Eustace camp that makes his jumps debut and he looks ready to rock and roll. Off what I saw in both sets of jumps trials and Warrnambool and Terang, this guy was the standout. He ran in a Hurdle trial at Terang and gee he was sharp on speed, throttled down late to run a narrow second but could have won by 10 lengths had Pateman sneezed on it. All things being equal, he wins comfortably.

3 Carisbrook (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a stablemate of Impulsar that also makes his jumps debut. His last run came over 2000m at Warracknabeal where he was on speed throughout and tried throughout, looming to win but had to settle for a narrow second to Loyal Consul. He won a Terang trial and despite a faulty last jump, he balanced up and moved very well. Not sure he beats Impulsar, but likely runs second.

11 Johnny Buccaneer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I could entertain for wider multiples. He’s had a couple of runs for Nathan Dunn, both on the flat, and each time he has been a bit on the plain side. But, he’s had two jumps trials since last run, and the latest at Terang, he moved very well behind them. Jumping was pretty solid and didn’t move too bad. Not a winning chance, but more a first four contender.

16 Yaltara (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me. Maher/Eustace trains this filly, who resumes, having not raced since October 11 when a solid fourth in a high rating maiden at Echuca, beaten just over three lengths. Has had three jumpouts to get ready for the return, the latest a jumpout win at Cranbourne, and seemingly moved very nicely. Maps to get an ideal run and strikes a winnable maiden.

5 Luv The Bool (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Magnus for Symon Wilde that resumes. He had a two run Spring prep to start his career, being a bit plain to the eye on debut at Warracknabeal before going to Hamilton where he found a small field, a bog track, and stuck on well enough in defeat behind Unseen Ruler. Resumes off the back of solid jumpout work and stable finds Nash, so he has a bit going for him.

3 Bushtocity (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Rubick gelding on debut for Peter Chow and certainly commands respect. He led and was throttled down late in a recent jumpout and to my eye, had something in the locker and could have won the jumpout had there been riding. Trained on the track, you’d assume he’s been set for this race, so watch the market.

Very open/even 2YO race this, so going to have a throw at the stumps via 8 Stella Boo (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who is on debut for Frankie Stockdale. She’s had just the one jumpout, which came on the Synthetic at Pakenham, and ran last, but she was under a hold and past the line, she savaged the ground, so I think she has an engine under the hood, and at the odds, happy to have something small on her.

7 Rose Of Shalaa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has home track advantage and has raceday experience under the belt. She debuted on Terang Cup Day where you can make a case to say that she should have won had she jumped clean, but was tardy away and that pretty much sealed her fate. Should be better for that run under the belt and strikes a winnable race IMO.

5 Overflow Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Impending for Symon Wilde that is on debut. She’s having start one and being trained on the track, you’d assume she has been set for the race. She’s had three jumpouts to get ready for start one and to my eye, has moved pretty well. Stable finds Melham to steer and has early speed to take care of the tricky gate.

1 Flying Agent (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the best Steeplechaser in Australia and he’ll confirm with another Brierly win. He resumed over 2200m at Bendigo on the flat and I thought his run was a beauty behind Charlie’s Tin. Trialled here last week and was the best of the session, winning by a space and doing it comfortably. Ideally, he’d love this to be a bog, but even on a soft track, he’s the one to beat.

Firmer the better for 6 Britannicus (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He should have won the race last year but lost 10+ lengths when getting to the course proper from the Steeple course so this is all about redemption. Hasn’t been too bad on the flat in two runs this prep but looks spot on off the back of a sharp trial win here last week where he led throughout and jogged to the line. If the track is Soft 6/7, he will look the winner for a long way.

2 Inayforhay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is certainly capable if he bring somewhere near his best. He won the Grand National Steeple a couple of years ago so we know the talent he has and that he can take this out. Just a question of where he is at given his recent racing has been on the flat and his lone jumps trial was in March. But, he has credits in the bank, so I can’t pen him.

14 Festivus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top in a very open staying contest. Team McEvoy trains this gelding, who last raced over 2700m at Stawell when near the speed throughout and he gave his rivals a spanking, winning by eight lengths and gave nothing else a look in from a fair way out. Loved the way he in a tick over jumps trial so he has the sharpness in him, good racing style, in form…he’ll do me.

10 Boyszee (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win. Maher/Eustace stayer that ran over 2400m at Sandown last time and kept finding the line in a pretty good effort when second to impressive winner Jaykayann. Little while between wins but is racing well and with a bit of cushion in the track, he appeals as one of the key winning chances.

13 Zoffala (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a first four contender. Stablemate of Festivus that hasn’t raced since April 10 at Sandown when back in the run and failing to make up any real headway when down the track behind Golden Crusader. He had a jumps trial at Terang last week and to my eye moved very well. Reckon he would have been a near moral in a Maiden Hurdle but they instead go here. Knockout hope if it becomes a slog.

D-Day for 2 Visinari (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but I will say this is the easiest race he has contested in some time. He was poor fresh at Flemington behind Scallopini before going to the Golden Mile at Bendigo where he was better but still, a tad plain, but the fence was red hot so be forgiving of the effort behind Here To Shock. Hard fit now, back in depth, cushion in the track…like him a lot.

14 Independent Road (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates but is consistent and should be around the mark. His last couple of runs have come at Flemington, the latest being a few weeks back and he tried his guts out but just couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Sparkle. Has had the break between runs and back in trip is okay. Knockout hope back in trip and down in the weights.

6 Game Keeper (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a good prep. Team McEvoy trained gelding that resumed a few weeks back at Sandown where he got a fair way back in the run and was off the bit early but kept finding the line in a really good effort behind impressive winner Alverdun. He swims and fitter, up to 1700m, I wouldn’t totally pen him.

Pretty keen here on 6 Hooah Havana (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Lindsey Smith. 2/2 this time in, both at the track. Spanked them fresh over 1200m before going to 1100m where he sat last in the small field but presented clear air and launched late to win and win well. That last run was March 13 and has been kept up to the mark with a lovely tick over jumpout at Terang. Handles all conditions, like him back up in trip and has home track advantage.

5 Cardigan Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality mare for the Maher/Eustace camp that resumes. This girl had a three run Spring prep and looked like it would be fruitful but it didn’t eventuate for her and she was plain, especially second and third up. She’s had two jumpouts to get ready for the return and the latest saw her close off nicely under a hold. Watch the market and see what it does.

2 Hidden Legend (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won’t mind some give in the track and is hard fit with a good racing style so he has a bit in his corner. He attempted to lead throughout last Thursday night at Pakenham and tried his guts out but was no match late for a nice horse, Prowling. Last bit of 1200m at this level will test with him but I am sure he’ll give a decent sight.

Could be one of the hottest 64 races I’ve seen. So much depth with city class horses engaged. I have landed with 19 Wicklow Lass (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Tom Dabernig. This filly has only won the one race but she has shown enough talent to suggest she is better than what that record reads. She looks ready to go off two jumpout wins, each seeing her sit on speed and go through her gears nicely. Lands on speed from the gate and will take running down.

16 Theycallmebruce (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a two start career for Danny O’Brien and commands respect. Both of her career runs have come at Geelong, winning like a nice horse on debut before racing on the Good Friday meeting and she was hailed as the winner when booting clear, but was run down late by Karalee Rocks. Maps to get a perfect run and is a key chance.

Market will be interesting with 5 Rajnish (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Nick Ryan. His last run came on New Years Day over 1700m at Flemington when keen off the speed and didn’t have much left for the straight behind Hasseltoff. I loved the way he produced change up speed in a recent Flemington jumpout so I think he’s on track for a first up run, a decent first up run…definite market watch.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 5 Impulsar

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 5 Killourney

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 8 Stella Boo

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 6, 8, 10, 13, 14

Leg Two: 2, 6, 14, 17

Leg Three: 6

Leg Four: 5, 10, 16, 19

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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