The Autumn Carnival starts to warm up at Rosehiull this Saturday with a couple of key lead ups to the Golden Slipper supporting a crack field who will take their place in the Expressway Stakes (1200m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:35) Canonbury Stakes 1100m
Don’t think the Slipper winner is here, but there are some nice types on display. Going the way of 6 Magnate (Bet Now: $8.50) for Chris Waller. This bloke is having his first start, with four trials under the belt, the first two being in November before being given a let up. Has had two recent trials, the latest over 1045m at Randwick where he sat back in the run before closing off really nicely under minimal pressure. He’s had the right grounding for the 1100m and if they want to go quick in front, he’ll be last man standing.
The colt on everybody’s lips will be 7 McLaren (Bet Now: $1.60), a son of Exceed And Excel on debut for the Snowden camp. He has looked very sharp at the trials, the latest coming last Tuesday at Warwick Farm when bolting up under J Mac. Time compared very well with Time To Reign on the same morning and that horse is being seriously talked up as a Slipper contender. He looks the part. Just has to bring it on race day.
8 Spring Loaded (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Team Hawkes trained son of Redoute’s Choice having his first start. This bloke has had two trials at Warwick Farm to prepare for his debut. Loved the way he found the line in the first trial before just being outpaced it seemed in the Time To Reign trial. He does look a handy prospect. Sharp enough to beat these? I’d say no, but he’s certainly one to watch.
Race 2. (13:10) Widden Stakes 1100m
Tricky race. I’m going to take a punt on the first starter 8 Lucicello (Bet Now: $4.60), a daughter of I Am Invincible on debut for Chris Waller. This girl has had two trials, a few months apart. First trial came in October where she squeezed between runners and was good late, and was good late in her recent trial at Rosehill behind the race fit For Love, sitting behind her and going through the motions under a hold. Interesting to see what’s under the hood.
3 Intrepidacious (Bet Now: $5.50) is a John O’Shea trained filly who hasn’t raced since debuting at Canterbury back on October 26 and while she probably didn’t beat much, you had to be impressed by how easily she put them away when Tye asked her to go. Tipped out and trialled at Warwick Farm over 800m where she charged to the line under minimal pressure to run a narrow second. Keen to see how she measures up.
4 Giselle Annie (Bet Now: $26.00) probably lacks the class/brilliance of some of these but if she can land on speed, she could pinch third/fourth. Attempted to lead all the way at this track/distance last time but for mine just copped a tad too much pressure and was left a sitting shot for Accession, but she stuck to the task well. Doubt she wins, but she’ll run an honest race I’m sure.
Race 3. (13:45) TAB Highway Plate (Class 3) 1500m
She’s got the tag as a non winner, and it’s hard to argue given her record, but 12 Nicconita (Bet Now: $3.30) hasn’t been far away of late and she really does find a very winnable race here. This mare ran in a Highway over 1400m here a fortnight ago where she got a mile back in the run as is the norm with her and she again flashed home to run third to A Snip Of Cyndy. Up to 1500m is a big tick, she’s hard fit and at the weights scale, gee she looks well placed.
The huge query is 13 Belfast Bella (Bet Now: $6.00), who resumes for the Matty Dale team. Quality mare who hasn’t raced since the Spring over 2000m at Canberra in an edition of the Federal where she was beaten a lip by Red Heat. Looked pretty good to the eye in a Moruya trial and 1500m first up in town tells me there is intent to run well first up in a thin race.
11 Potent Force (Bet Now: $7.00) certainly has the ability to beat these, but it is just an unknown as to where he is at. First two runs back from a break were really good before going to Doomben where he was eased out of the race and wasn’t 100% behind Sofie’s Gold Class. That was December 8 so the break between runs to recover from that. Market will be the guide to him.
Race 4. (14:20) Countdown To Golden Slipper Handicap (72) 1400m
I think you have to give 1 Ljungberg (Bet Now: $2.35) another chance. Couple of really impressive wins to start the prep before racing over 1300m here a fortnight ago. He was wide no cover and the leader/winner controlled things beautifully. On one hand, you could say Ljungberg was disappointing, but on the other hand, he did work in the run and should be forgiven. Hard one to assess, but the wins prior were too good to ignore off one run.
There’s nothing wrong with the way 3 Vegadaze (Bet Now: $3.90) is going about it. He’s 2/2 to start his career, debuting with a sharp win at Canbterbury before racing over 1300m here where the ride from Tim Clark won the race. Showed initiative to find the front, control the race and dash clear late when asked and he knuckled down pretty well. Harder here, but all you can do is win and that’s what he has done.
9 Costello (Bet Now: $67.00) might be one to watch from a Derby perspective. David Payne trains this three year old, who hasn’t raced since September 27 when winning his maiden over 1800m at Hawkesbury. He has had two trials to prepare for his return to racing, and while he’ll be much better suited over further, the trials haven’t been too bad and could sneak a first four spot.
Race 5. (14:55) TAB Handicap (78) 1400m
Up to 1400m should suit the Chris Waller trained 3 The Avenger (Bet Now: $11.00) who resumed over 1200m here a fortnight ago where he got back in an on pace dominated affair and he worked home well in an eye catching effort behind All Too Royal. Not a noted second up performer, but the resumption was too good to ignore and he gets a good run near the speed.
6 Poetic Charmer (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Team Snowden trained gelding who has been a real model of consistency in recent times and should run well once again despite a wide gate. He ran over 1200m here a fortnight ago where he was near the speed all the way and tried hard but just didn’t have the dash to go with the in form All Too Royal. If he can overcome the gate, he comes right into play.
If they go hard in front, look for 1 Kool Vinnie (Bet Now: $6.50) to be ambushing late. He can mix his form but lately he has run some very good races, and at times he hasn’t had much luck. Things went his way over 1200m here two weeks ago but those on speed just had it too good when third to All Too Royal. Up to 1400m looks ideal and for mine is a definite threat.
Race 6. (15:30) Expressway Stakes 1200m
Normally it’s only bad luck will beat Horse X, but I think even with bad luck, 6 Alizee (Bet Now: $2.05) will be too good for this field. High class mare who was at her brilliant best when winning the Christmas Classic first up, making Fell Swoop look like a camel. He of course came out and ran a beauty in the Australia Stakes, so the form reads very well, and the tick over trial was sensational behind Endless Drama. She’s flying and should be winning.
No knock at all on 2 Trapeze Artist (Bet Now: $3.00), but history says his best will come third up. He hasn’t raced since The Everest where he ran a mighty second to Redzel on the bog track, something he really struggles on but still managed to find the line and run second. Trialled well enough at Rosehill and the stable have said the horse has come back well and are expecting a similar first up performance to previous preps. That tells me yes, he’ll run well…but well enough to beat Alizee? I think not.
He’s got class has 1 Hartnell (Bet Now: $12.00) so I think he can’t be ignored. I thought he was cooked in the Spring but he got the win in the Epsom and then went on to place in the Toorak. Trialled up really well at Randwick last week, can sprint well fresh and give in the track won’t be an issue. On a dry track, I’d say definitely not, but with a wet track, he comes into play for sure.
Race 7. (16:10) Events By ATC Handicap (88) 1500m
Big fan of Girl Tuesday, but with race fitness on the side of 7 Smartedge (Bet Now: $9.00), I’ll just lean his way. He was freshened up and was targeted at the Magic Millions Cup where he got back in the run and closed off strongly behind Redouble in an excellent effort with depth to the field, much more than what he faces here. Hoping race fitness gets him home here.
Great to see 9 Girl Tuesday (Bet Now: $2.50) back at the races. Very well bred mare for Chris Waller who resumes after beginning her career with a four run prep and won each time, albeit very well placed by the stable. She’s had two trials to prepare for her return, the latest over 1200m at Warwick Farm when closing off nicely behind a tearaway. Good test for her but would be shocked if she didn’t measure up.
3 Seaway (Bet Now: $3.30) is the very interesting runner. Talented three year old for the Chris Waller team that is first up. Wasn’t seen during the Spring and why that is I’m not sure, but during the Winter he showed some really good talent behind some quality animals. Just one trial leading in, but inside gate, J Mac on and already scratched from another race tells me there’s intent.
Race 8. (16:50) Rosehill Bowling Club Handicap (78) 2000m
17 Botti (Bet Now: $10.00) is flying for Chris Waller IMO. He’s bursting to win a race and I think he gets a great chance here. Loved his first up run on the Kensington track behind Ljungberg before going to Warwick Farm in the race won by the tearaway Another Snappy and Botti just had no luck in the straight when wanting to build momentum. Not sure he would have won but clearly should have finished closer. Up to 2000m, bigger track, keen to see what he does.
1 Asterius (Bet Now: $4.50) is two weeks between runs for Chris Waller after racing at Rosehill where he was given a lovely steer by J Mac and had his chance to win but just found the stablemate So You Win too sharp. Was down to run last Saturday but was scratched, and probably for the better given the way that race was run. Happy to give him one more chance.
15 Cyber Intervention (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Joe Pride trained galloper who should be suited up in trip. He ran over the mile at Warwick Farm last time in the race won by Another Snappy and that sort of race shape just wasn’t to his liking. He wasn’t terrible but never really looked like winning given he was off the bit a fair way out. Have to give him another chance because the win prior was dominant.
Race 9. (17:30) Rise Up This Autumn Handicap (88) 1200m
Back Me: A strongly run 1200m looks an ideal recipe for 3 Paret (Bet Now: $3.40) to get a win on the board for this preparation. Was on him when he resumed over 1100m here a fortnight ago and probably just went a run early. 1100m isn’t his trip, no matter how strong the tempo was, and he just couldn’t dash quick enough. This looks more to his liking and with the run under the belt, confident he wins.
8 All Too Royal (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Maher/Eustace trained gelding who has just been so well placed in recent times by the stable but there won’t be a place to hide this time around because the depth looks quite strong. Was given a lovely ride on speed at this track/distance two weeks ago and just proved too good. I couldn’t back him to win because he’ll probably need a soft lead to run a strong 1200m at this level, but can’t ignore because he’s just so reliable.
6 Maximus (Bet Now: $8.00) is the interesting runner. Team Snowden trains this five year old, who was so dynamic early on in the prep when last in work but his form tapered off towards the end so I think fresh is best for him. He trialled over 900m here on January 15 and was urged along from off the pace in a somewhat sluggish trial behind Desert Lord, but he has the runs on the board.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 6 Alizee
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 1 Ljungberg
LONG SHOT: Race One Number 6 Magnate
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 6
Leg Two: 7, 9
Leg Three: 1, 7, 15, 17
Leg Four: 3, 6, 7, 8, 10
$50 Investment= 125% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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