2/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

I am a bit surprised that 6 Thornycroft (Bet Now:  $SP.00) isn’t closer to favourite. Chris Waller trained gelding that debuted over this trip at Geelong and was very good from near last on the turn, rocketing to the line late when second to Secret Samurai. I’d love to see him at 1400m+, but if the gate is used to advantage, I think he’ll only run well and be strong at the end.

8 Flying Temptress (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is short enough but is one of the hardest to beat. Debuted at The Valley three weeks ago and I think you could easily make a case to say she wins with clear air instead of a narrow second to Aoraki Summit. That form reads strong for what looks a moderate maiden overall. The main and I dare say only threat.

4 Magnupur (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Magnus for the Griffiths/De Kock camp. He hasn’t raced since his debut at Sale back on July 24 when back and making up good headway late behind Hennessy Lad. He’s had a trial and jumpout to get ready for his return and the stable gets B Shinn to steer. Watch the market.

7 Unlimited Magic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a very sharp filly for Clinton McDonald. She debuted at the midweeks at Kyneton and I’m not sure she beat a great deal, but the change up speed she produced when asked and the way she put them away was that of a Stakes class horse. Most of these are limited whereas she is only having start two and looks very much above average.

Staying at 1200m is the knock with 2 Corner Off (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but she is a filly with talent. She ran over the trip last Wednesday at Sandown and was badly held up at a crucial stage before eventually getting clear and charging late when second to Midtown Lass. If she gets better luck this time around, he can take this out.

8 Alpinova (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suited up to 1200m for Simon Zahra. She resumed against the older horses over 1100m at Bendigo and I thought was good to the line without threatening behind an in form Screwed Down, who ran well at Ballarat next time. Lands in a plum spot from the gate and is a key threat.

To me, this race is either Pitchanun is a moral or you think she is a nonny and have to look elsewhere. I am going with the latter and siding with 10 Hardly Sweet (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who just has the better form and I am stunned she is the price she is. Just needed the run fresh on Underwood Day at Sandown before going to Flemington and I thought she worked to the line pretty well behind Matron Bullwinkel. Hard fit and up in trip, she’s the each way bet for sure.

12 Pitchanun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bursting to win a race and all things being equal, she probably wins, especially with B Shinn, but the price is too skinny to dive in. She had every chance to run down Vegas Knight last time out here but couldn’t get there. Vegas Knight is just a horse, so struggling to get past him is the concern. But she gets an ideal map, loves the track and has the form rider.

6 Chernak (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has upside and the Waller polish so don’t pen him. Total forgive fresh at Sale before going here where the pattern was against him but didn’t mind the way he finished the race off behind Vegas Knight. I’d rather back this guy each way than dive into $2.40 Pitchanun, so backing Hardly Sweet and this guy.

When in doubt, gravitate towards the best rider and that is B Shinn so I am with 11 Platinum Spirit (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who comes here off the back of a 2400m effort at Bendigo where he worked to the line strongly from off the speed when second to dominant winner Mr French. Form around him is strong and the scratchings have severely weakened this race.

2 Angel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one with upside and comes to town off the back of a dominant win on Donald Cup Day where he was the rank outsider in the field but he lapped up the conditions and made an absolute mess of them. He was only second up there so you’d like to think the upside is plenty.

13 Eaton (Bet Now:  $SP.00) likes The Valley and C Williams sticks so for wider multiples, chuck him in. He ran over this trip on Cranbourne Cup Day and wasn’t suited by the race shape/track pattern, finishing down the track behind Kissinger. If he leads and rolls, I think he’ll give a stack of cheek at a big price.

Looks to be a stack of speed engaged here so want to be on something strong late and 11 Moon And Back (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will be that. Ran over this track/distance three weeks ago and worked home pretty well late nearer the inside when fourth to Rattle And Bang. She did find the fast lane but still worked home well and the set up here gives her every chance to launch late.

7 Chosen Blonde (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has raced well at this track/distance previously and is certainly good enough to take this out. She ran over 1200m at Morphettville last time when just failing to see out teh six furlongs when down the track behind Calla Dream. Like her back in trip and with the claim, she’s in nicely.

6 Rastelli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suited back to 955m. She resumed over 1000m here when sitting on speed and she tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off when down the track behind Dusse. Much better placed in a 955m race and with the claim, I think she’s in with a shout at a decent price.

9 Mere Fancy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to win. She’s been excellent in two runs back from a spell, resuming with an eye catching effort at Sale behind Najem Suhail. She then went to the Pendant at Cranbourne and was very good late behind Megamea. Hard fit now and at the mile, back miles in grade/depth, she’s clearly the one to beat.

6 Versilia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will love getting to firmer footing. She found a bog here several weeks ago and that beat her I think. Looked the winner when presented but couldn’t quite finish it off when nabbed late by La Spezia. That was her first run in a month, so you’d like to think there is room for improvement and gets a jockey upgrade IMO with Shinn replacing Oliver.

4 Riotus Mischief (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be around the mark for Andrew Bobbin. She has been teasing to win a race this prep but keeps finding one or two better on the day, the latest run being here when thrid to Chandon Burj. If the inside gate is used to advantage, I think she’ll be dangerous.

2 Arktika (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the map advantage of St Lawrence, potentially, and does have the better rider to steer, so she commands respect. Wide no cover at Flemington on Oaks Day and stuck to the task well enough in defeat behind stablemate Matron Bullwinkel. Think she’ll take beating if there is petrol left in the tank.

4 Freedom Escape (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a promising animal for Paul Preusker. He resumed over 1400m at Sandown and was very good from off the speed, finishing with purpose when a narrow second to Suparazi. Didn’t look out of place at Pakenham tomorrow but they run here instead. Hard to beat.

I doubt 7 Ima Shelby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) wins, but he’s a must for exotics. Ran over the mile here three weeks back where he had the charmed run behind the speed and battled away pretty well in defeat when third to the in form Florida Dream. Gets in well after the claim…doubt he beats the first two but is a near lock to run top four.

6 Grinzinger Prince (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but he’s got an engine under the hood. He has been kept on ice since resuming on Geelong Cup Day when back near last in the run but worked home with real purpose late in the piece behind an in form mare Hypothetical. Like him up to 1200m and if he’s within range on the turn, I think he’ll be winning.

15 Endlessly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a well bred mare for Team Hawkes that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since August 7 at Sandown when wide no cover for the trip and just felt the pinch late behind Niccolite, who is a pretty handy horse when right. Good fresh record and I do respect the fact the stable finds C Williams.

13 Bluestone Lane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Cliff Brown trained gelding that resumes. He ended last prep on a high when bolting up on the Synthetic at Ballarat, giving them a spanking and lapping up the conditions. Couple of strong jumpouts to get ready…doubt he’s good enough to win but can run top four.

BEST BET: Race Six Numebr 9 Mere Fancy

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Thornycroft

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 11 Moon And Back

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 6, 7, 8, 11, 13

Leg Two: 9

Leg Three: 2, 4

Leg Four: 6, 7, 13, 15

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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