2/11/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Victoria Derby day

Melbourne Cup Week kicks off this Saturday at Flemington where it is Derby Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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7 Canara (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has always looked like a horse that will appreciate a mile and with two 1400m runs under the belt, she looks ready for it. She ran third to stablemate Aeliana in the Reginald Allen at Randwick, sitting wide with cover and kept finding the line in a good effort. Not a deep race this and I think she will be strong late.

1 Feroce (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. He nearly caused the upset of upsets in the Caulfield Guineas but just missed out on the win when a narrow second to Private Life. He’s racing like 1600m at Flemington will suit and does bring the Caulfield Guineas form, which usually stands up in this race. Hard to beat.

3 Acta Non Verba (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has an engine under the hood for Danny O’Brien. I thought he was quite a dominant all the way winner at Cranbourne two back to break the maiden tag before going to Caulfield when leading and giving a strong kick but was nabbed late by Treasurethe Moment. If he leads and gets control, he will take running down.

5 Zeitung (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the straight bat play for me. I was keen on her in the Thousand Guineas Prelude but she got stuck wide no cover throughout and that early work told late but she kept on in a strong effort behind Too Darn Lizzie. Like her from a better draw, maps perfect and gets a jockey upgrade IMO.

4 I Am Velvet (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very talented filly but she is still doing a bit wrong. She resumed three weeks back at Caulfield where I thought she was going to burst through and win but like she did as a juvenile, she did plenty wrong and didn’t want to finish the job. If she puts everything together, she can win the Thousand Guineas, and can win this.

12 More Territories (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like she will eat up the mile so she is one to watch from a Thousand Guineas perspective. O’Shea/Charlton trained filly that ran in the Tapp-Craig a few weeks ago where she was in restricted room but kept finding the line in a really good effort behind Anode. With clear air, she appeals.

4 Johnny Rocker (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is facing D-Day I feel. I was keen on him running well in the Gilgai at Flemington and he seemed to get a decent enough run in transit but when asked for the effort, he was quite plain the last 200m. He is trained here and we know his best is more than good enough, plus gets H Bowman. Enough for me.

6 Schwarz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a class animal for the O’Shea/Charlton camp that resumes. He ended last prep with a big win in the Missile at Randwick, doing work out wide but he kept finding under pressure and surged to win. Likely has eyes on the Rupert Clarke for that Group l and off the trial work in Sydney, he’s ready to rock and roll.

2 Maharba (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned really well and the stable is flying. He resumed three weeks ago in the Schillaci where he got back off the fast speed and worked home with real purpose in a strong return behind a sharp filly, Bellatrix Star. Fitter, good record here, he takes beating for mine.

Dual accepted, but keen to be with 3 Tamerlane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) each way. He’s trialling up like an absolute rocket for the return and yes, accepted for the Russell Balding, but I do think this race is far more winnable, especially with a couple of potential suspect favourites engaged here and J Mac booked.

2 Another Wil (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look. Ciaorn Maher trained gelding that comes through the Toorak where he led and had control…that was until Shinn aboard Antino took off with the stunning mid race move and Another Wil just spat the dummy out. Better race shape here, he can get back into the winners list.

11 Age Of Kings (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous with his best for Chris Waller He. resumed over 1400m three weeks back at Caulfield. He got back in the run and while he was never a winning threat, he kept finding the line in a pretty good return. Fitter, good upside, I think he’s quite dangerous.

I wanted to see signs of life from 1 Jenni’s Meadow (Bet Now:  $SP.00) re Oaks in the Ethereal two weeks and she showed enough for mine to say she’s back on track. Jury was out after her first couple of runs but she ran a much improved race here, getting back and coming with a well timed run but just missed out on the win when second to Too Darn Discreet. Back to Flemington and now she’s found positive form, she can go on with it.

5 Powers Of Opal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a filly that is ticking along beautifully towards the Oaks and this stable loves to use this race as a lead up. She got the maiden win out of the way at Hawkesbury last time where she looked a moral on paper and duly saluted, winning quite impressively. She’s on the up and the rise to 2000m is ideal.

John Sargent filly in the Wakeful…we’ve seen this movie before so you have to include 10 Inevitable Truth (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She was a real eye catcher in the Ethereal, getting back to near last in the run but worked home with real purpose late in the piece. Think she’ll love getting to Flemington and if within range, she has the finale to be quite dangerous.

1 Growing Empire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) still doesn’t quite know what the caper is about but gee he’s got an engine. He was enormous in The Everest, taking on the big boys for the first time he was there still fighting with them late in the piece behind Bella Nipotina. They have been trying to ride him warm but I do hope they revert to first up and the tactics there. He was ridden cold and exploded. If that eventuates, I think good luck beating him.

Missing The Everest could well be a blessing in disguise when it comes to 3 Traffic Warden (Bet Now:  $SP.00). I was keen on him running well there but he was in the gates a long time, I Am Me went off and it made him go off, being a late scratching. Jumped out super here last week, he’ll be strong at the end of 1200m…think he’s hard to beat.

11 Bellatrix Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has earned a crack at this level. She is humming for Mark Walker and comes here with three wins on the bounce, the latest being three weeks back at Caulfield in the Schillaci where she gave them a start and a beating to win well, beating the older horses. Proven down the straight, she only runs well.

5 Saint Emillion (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have that sense of timing and overall, it’s not a deep Derby. He won the Geelong Classic and while he beat nothing, he was very strong to the line and the way he put them away was impressive. He has the C Maher polish, no issue with 2500m and I dare say will be strong late. Commands respect.

1 El Castello (Bet Now:  $SP.00) picks himself I think. It wasn’t a strong tempo last Saturday in the Spring Champion but what you had to like was how strong he was to the line because Henlein was there to put him away but he found and on the line was safely holding them at bay. If that hasn’t busted him, which I don’t think it will, then he’s the one to beat.

11 China Sea (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the only one I want from the Caulfield Classic into this. He should have won there IMO but just got held up at the wrong stage and didn’t have the clearest of paths when it came to building momentum, just missing out on the win. He’ll love the rise in trip and he has the John Sargent touch, who knows how to win a big staying race for the youngsters.

4 Revolutionary Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is ticking along beautifully towards this race. She won two back here before racing two weeks back in the Tristarc when leading at a crawl and just lacked the turn of foot to finish the job when nabbed late by Lady In Pink. More genuine tempo here, bunny to chase, I think she’ll be far more effective.

3 Orchestral (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been set for the race and looks to be humming after the Toorak, where she had zero luck in behind and got warm late in a very good piece of work behind Antino. Back to Mares grade, hard fit, she gets J Mac…she has plenty going for her.

11 Grinzinger Belle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will give an almighty sight for Danny O’Brien. Three weeks between runs since a dominant all the way win over the mile at Caulfield where she got a peach front running steer and gave nothing else a look in, winning quite impressively. She loves Flemington, she’ll lead and give a great sight.

I am going to speck 9 Kin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) each way for James Cummings. I thought she did really well first up at Caulfield behind Nadal, closing off with purpose. She has run well down the straight previously, she’ll be strong late and has good upside, plus the stable LOVE targeting these races for the Fillies & Mares.

3 Sans Doute (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks better suited back to Mares grade vs taking on the big boys and girls at Caulfield a fortnight back where she seemed to get every chance in transit but just couldn’t quite finish the job. Several weeks between runs there so with room for improvement, she appeals big time for mine as a threat.

10 Cigar Flick (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality mare for Chris Waller that resumes and I am confident she can measure up. She hasn’t raced since Tatts Tiara Day in June over 1200m at Eagle Farm, giving them a start and a beating in an electric performance. Good fresh horse, trialled up really well and has a touch of quality when right.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Growing Empire

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Tamerlane

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 9 Kin

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 11

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 11

Leg Four: 1, 3, 9, 10, 15

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful.

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