A Caulfield Cup start is on the line for the winner of the feature race at Caulfield this Saturday, the $150,000 Group lll Bendigo Bank East Malvern MRC Foundation Cup (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:25pm) : TROA Supports National Jockeys Trust Plate 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: With race fitness on his side, I’ll lean with Ability (Best Odds: $8.00). There was plenty to like about his maiden win last start at Sale, where he sat off the speed before pouncing in the straight to win with real authority. He looks to have his fair share of talent, and he strikes a very winnable race here.
Big Danger: On ability alone, Bassett (Best Odds: $4.60) is clearly the best horse in the race. He scored a dominant win over this track/distance in May, beating Danehill Stakes winner Kinglike before going to the J J Atkins at Doomben and running a beauty when fifth to Press Statement. He has looked very good at the jump outs, and on class, he will go a long way towards victory.
Roughie: Destiny’s Reward (Best Odds: $61.00) attempted to lead all the way last time out at Sandown and just felt the pinch late when running seventh to impressive winner Secret Agenda, beaten just under four lengths. Back to 1100m suits, and with the rail out nine metres, leaders certainly won’t be disadvantaged. He can definitely run a cheeky race here.
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Race Two (12:55pm) : Fight Cancer Handicap 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Moonovermanhattan (Best Odds: $5.00) resumed at Stakes level over 1200m at Moonee Valley and didn’t have the greatest amount of luck when ninth to Fell Swoop, beaten just under three lengths. His jump outs prior were pretty good and despite being unplaced in two runs second up and in four runs at Caulfield, he has the class and talent to work home strongly late.
Big Danger: Rugged Cross (Best Odds: $6.50) has his first run for Darren Weir after formerly being with Chris Waller. He hasn’t raced since running fourth to The Offer in the Rowley Mile, beaten just over four lengths. One thing we know with Weir is that he gets the best out of these tried runners, so he is the watch horse here.
Roughie: Rhythm To Spare (Best Odds: $7.50) resumed over this track/distance a few weeks back and just got too far back when ninth to Charmed Harmony, beaten nine lengths but it was hard to make ground in that race given the leader dominated from the front. Draws better here and is a second up winner in the past.
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Race Three (1:30pm) : The Golden Fleece 150th Anniversary Handicap (78) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Coram (Best Odds: $5.00). He resumed at Cranbourne a few weeks back and attacked the line with purpose with a close second to Armada, just failing to pick up that Group l performer. He ran well second up last time in, but he looks to be going much better now. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Kapset (Best Odds: $4.20) resumed at Bendigo a couple of weeks back and tried his heart out when a last stride loss to talented individual Stavia. This is harder, but he gets weight relief here and is sure to be in the finish with normal luck.
Roughie: Jetello (Best Odds: $13.00) ran over 1400m at Morphettville Parks last start and was given every chance from Josh Cartwright, but he could not hold out the finishing burst of Rocket Commander, who has won again since. 1400m is a little query, but he is racing in fantastic form and is a definite winning chance.
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Race Four (2:10pm) : Bendigo Bank East Malvern Handicap (90) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: I think if you want an anchor for the day, then Sardaaj (Best Odds: $2.50) is clearly the horse. It was tough to watch if you backed her at her Australian debut at the Valley when second to last Saturday Stakes winner Churchill Dancer. The mare got badly held up behind tired runners and never got clear until it was too late. With normal luck, she beats these.
Big Danger: Petite Diablesse (Best Odds: $7.50) was a real eye catcher when resuming in the Cockram, making up a stack of ground late to run sixth to Madam Gangster, beaten just under two lengths. She won over this distance second up last time in, and that first up effort was a beauty and a really good pointer for a race like this. Doubt she can beat Sardaaj, but she should run very well nonetheless.
Roughie: Ungrateful Ellen (Best Odds: $10.00) resumes here for Robert Smerdon after running a couple of rippers during the Adelaide/Brisbane Carnivals, most notably last start when second to Winx in the Queensland Oaks. She looked good in winning a trial last week, and despite 1400m being well short of her best, she can definitely perform well fresh.
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Race Five (2:45pm) : MRC Foundation Plate 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Giulietta (Best Odds: $4.40) is a tough filly for Gai Waterhouse who ran a solid sixth in the Quezette behind star filly Petits Filous before stepping up to 1400m and running second to Alaskan Rose. Both of those form lines do read very well for a race like this, and she should be out of trouble and on speed, which will be the spot to be IMO.
Big Danger: Don’t Doubt Mama (Best Odds: $3.50) was a real eye catcher last time out in the Atlantic Jewel, storming home from last to finish a close up fourth to smart filly Stay With Me, while second home was Group l winner Pasadena Girl. The only query I have with her is that she has to back it up, because her first up run back in Adelaide, in a much weaker race, was poor.
Roughie: Thames Court (Best Odds: $13.00) steps immediately up in grade after spanking her rivals on debut a few weeks back on the Pakenham Synthetic, sitting on the pace most of the way before showing a lovely turn of foot to win and win very impressively. Good test to see how good she is, but the stable should be respected when sending their horses straight to town from the provincials.
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Race Six (3:25pm) : Catanach’s Jewellers Testa Rossa Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Ulmann (Best Odds: $6.50) on top for me here. He hasn’t raced since finishing third in the Eye Liner at Ipswich behind Smokin’ Joey, where a really poor ride cost him the win. He has looked very sharp in jump outs, trained on the track, and he did run an eye catcher when resuming last time in.
Big Danger: Completely forget that Galaxy Pegasus (Best Odds: $11.00) went around first up at Moonee Valley. He bungled the start and then pulled his head off in the run when finishing a 2.7L tenth to Fell Swoop. Should be a more genuine tempo here, and don’t worry about his two second up failures, because the first one came in the Danehill, where he wasn’t suited down the Flemington straight, and the other came in the Group l William Reid against some of Australias best sprinters.
Roughie: The Bowler (Best Odds: $15.00) is a talented type for Robert Smerdon who ran well without much luck when resuming behind Bounding over 1100m here, beaten just over six lengths but he should have finished closer. His trial last week at Cranbourne was very good and despite 1200m being short of his best, he will be storming home late.
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Race Seven (4:05pm) : William Hill Sprint Series Heat 2 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Griante (Best Odds: $10.00) was excellent in two runs here before running at Moonee Valley where she was game in defeat, running third to Fell Swoop. She should be cherry ripe fitness wise now, and she does tend to save her best for Caulfield, so I think she really gets her chance here.
Big Danger: Wawail (Best Odds: $13.00) is a classy mare that resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. She wasn’t far off them last start in the Robert Sangster when a 2.5L ninth to star mare Miracles Of Life. Recent Flemington jump out was a real eye catcher and she looked in outstanding order here. Definite winning chance here.
Roughie: The watch horse is Politeness (Best Odds: $8.50), a very classy mare who has a booming finish on her if she gets conditions to suit. She last ran in the Tatts Tiara and wasn’t suited by the tempo behind Srikandi. Recent trial at Cranbourne was very good, she runs well fresh, and if the track has any sort of give in it, she comes right into contention.
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Race Eight (4:45pm) : Bendigo Bank East Malvern MRC Foundation Cup 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’ve got a ticket on The United States (Best Odds: $3.80) to win the Caulfield Cup, and I am confident he will get his spot in the field by winning here. He produced the win of the day when resuming at Moonee Valley over 1500m before stepping up to the mile, and if you backed him…it was tough. He had the race won, but he turned his head to the side and that allowed stablemate Chance To Dance to get the bob in. First time he races beyond a mile on Australian soil, but his best win when trained overseas was at this distance.
Big Danger: It’s hard to knock winning form and that is what Magnapal (Best Odds: $6.50) brings to the table here. He scored a strong win two back at Sandown before coming to the Heatherlie (1700m) and proving far too good for his rivals in a strong win, and that form has been franked with Iggimacool bolting up last Saturday at Flemington.
Roughie: Our Ivanhowe (Best Odds: $11.00) is clearly the watch horse. The Team Freedman made his Australian debut during the Adelaide Carnival and worked home well behind The Bowler. He bolted up in a Cranbourne trial last week, and he has been supported in markets for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. Wouldn’t be surprised if he puts a space on these.
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Race Nine (5:20pm) : The Cove Hotel Handicap 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: There was plenty to like about the win of More Than Perfect (Best Odds: $11.00) last time out at Sandown over this distance. He took his time to wind up, but his last 200m was excellent and he surged to get the win. Harder here, but there is a stack of upside and he is in the right stable. Confident he can get the job done in a quality three year old race.
Big Danger: Sailing By (Best Odds: $5.00) is definitely looking for the mile now after running over 1400m here a few weeks back when grinding away strongly to run third to classy youngster Alaskan Rose, beaten 1.5L. Mile looks perfect for this daughter of Fastnet Rock and she should take a power of beating here.
Roughie: Tarzino (Best Odds: $9.00) is a stablemate of Sailing By who broke his maiden status in good style last start at Ballarat over 1400m. He took an absolute eternity to wind up, but he eventually got there and was strong through the line. Harder here, but like the top tip, there is upside and is trained on the track, so he is certainly a winning chance.
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BEST BET: Race Eight 17 The United States
NEXT BEST: Race Four 5 Sardaaj
VALUE: Race Seven 4 Griante
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 13
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 11
Leg Three: 1, 17
Leg Four: 7, 8, 9, 14
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