19/1/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Kensington Stakes day

Looks a handy race with some promising types engaged. But I want to go the way of the Tony McEvoy trained 5 Game Keeper (Bet Now: $5.50). Debuted over 1140m at Geelong last Thursday and I thought he should have gone close to winning. Just had no luck in the straight when seemingly full of running. Up to 1200m and clear air, hopefully, should hold him in good stead.

2 Viking Warrior (Bet Now: $1.75) looks an above average colt for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Trialled up well prior to resuming over 1100m at Geelong where he led all the way and bolted in, with the form out that being franked by Maozi. Opened rather short in betting for my liking. Looks the likely winner, but from a betting proposition, he’s too short IMO.

3 Outlandos (Bet Now: $9.50) is a son of Dissident for Tony McEvoy who debuted a fortnight back at Gawler (Metro) and while he was well beaten into second, the winner Felicia looks clearly the best juvenile in SA as it stands, so I think that form is okay, he is trained here and I think the 1200m is fine so long as he gets cover and a drag up to the final 400m/thereabouts.

Just about anything goes when it comes to these staying race so I’ll have a throw at the stumps via 4 Khezerabad (Bet Now: $19.00). He’s had two runs back from a break and has been quite good. Just took off too early last time at the Bool in what I thought was a forgive run behind One For Later. Gets really good weight relief, fitter, and his form last prep doesn’t read too bad.

2 Lycurgus (Bet Now: $1.80) is a Danny O’Brien trained galloper who was hard in the market when racing over this track/distance four weeks back where he ran a game second to dominant winner Etymology, who has since franked the form by winning the Bagot. That form does read well for this and is gradually getting better with each run under the belt.

3 Pleasuring (Bet Now: $2.80) is a Darren Weir trained mare who I couldn’t back to win but concede she’s a threat against these. She comes through the 2500m race from Moonee Valley three weeks ago where she got back in the run and spotted them a fair start but was very good late when third to Khartoum. Wins if she runs to her best…just hasn’t done that for a while.

11 Weapon (Bet Now: $10.00) will do me. The Busuttin/Young team trains this galloper, who hasn’t raced since resuming at Seymour where he settled off the pace and despite needing hard riding, he surged hard late and got the win in an impressive resumption. Horror draw, but usually eases back and the stable generally use Regan Bayliss to great effect.

Very interesting runner is 7 English Gambler (Bet Now: $4.80), a former kiwi that makes his Australian debut for Darren Weir. Showed really good promise when racing over in New Zealand, showing signs of being a handy stayer. Recent jumpout at Colac was more than encouraging, he draws a soft gate and Mark Zahra takes the steer, so he’s very likeable here against this lot.

2 Dane Thunder (Bet Now: $15.00) is a talented galloper that is having his first run for Matt Cumani. Showed handy ability when last in work, including a couple of solid runs in town. Resumes for the new stable and his recent jumpout was quite good. Should get cover from the draw and the claim for young Kersley is a big tick. Interesting to see what the market does.

I think 2000m and the bigger track is going to suit a stack of runners here, one of them being 2 Yulong September (Bet Now: $7.00). Outstanding debut winner at Sandown before being ridden too cute for mine next start at Morphettville. Ran at Caulfield last Wednesday and just looked drunk around the turn. Balanced up and worked to the line nicely late in restricted room. Crying out for more ground and a bigger track, which he gets. Just needs clear air.

3 Royal Performance (Bet Now: $3.90) is another that should appreciate the step up in trip. He ran over the mile at Caulfield last Wednesday and was a bit flat footed when the sprint went on but picked up late and was good when third to Mahis Angel. Has looked a 2000m+ horse since the debut and he gets to the ten furlongs now. Looms as a definite threat.

9 Dream Big (Bet Now: $13.00) is a handy stayer for the Maher/Eustace stable that has shown promise in short career to date. Impressive maiden winner two back at Kyneton before going to Sale where he was game in defeat when beaten narrowly by Reliable Magic. Gets right down in the weights after the claim for an in form Liam Riordan and he’s a stayer so the 2000m is fine.

4 Beerz With Clint (Bet Now: $5.50) looks one of the hardest to beat. He’s probably got most of these covered when it comes to ability but sometimes he can be tardy away. He was clean to jump last time at the Valley and as a result he landed on speed and from the home turn onwards, it was a painless watch. Now he’s got the confidence boosting win under the belt, he could well fulfill his early promise.

8 Du Well (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Robbie Griffiths trained filly who has come back in really good order. Won her first two runs for the prep before going to Caulfield where she was on speed and fought on strongly to run a game second to Tropezina, but I will say she had her chance, so perhaps back to 1100m is ideal for her and she draws the right part of the track.

5 Mumbles (Bet Now: $19.00) looks a definite threat I think. He was backed with confidence when racing at the Bool last time but if you were on, apologies for reminding you of the nightmare. He should have won but just had no luck in the straight when Childs was looking for clear air. If he gets it this time around, I’m pretty sure he’ll be in the finish.

Fascinating runner is 11 Mount Kilcoy (Bet Now: $6.50), who resumes for Darren Weir. Quality animal who is best suited over further, but he certainly has the quality/brilliance to figure, and a Terang 2 jumpout was very good to the eye. Market will tell you how forward he is, but whatever fitness levels he has, he goes in all multiples because he does look blacktype class.

1 King’s Command (Bet Now: $11.00) looks to be going well for the Corstens team. Just needs to jump and take advantage of the gate. Should have just about won here two back behind Mr Money Bags before going to Caulfield where he again got back in a slowly run affair and couldn’t run on behind Rock ‘N’ Gold. Gate one, Flemington 1400m, Williams on…gets his chance.

7 Kaching (Bet Now: $10.00) looks a live threat for sure. The Maher/Esuatce stable trains this bloke, who resumed over 1400m at Caulfield a fortnight ago where he got well back in the run and finished off hard when a close up sixth to Mastering. Is that the right form for this? Probably not, but the good gate and the resumption keeps him right in the game.

2 Champagne Cuddles (Bet Now: $2.05) should be winning this for mine. She was a bit disappointing during the Spring, not showing anything of the mare that was on display in the Autumn and previous Spring. High quality when at her best, bomb fresh horse and her trial at Warwick Farm was very good. Happy to stick with the class runner, which is clearly her.

5 Glenall (Bet Now: $3.90) is a son of Redoute’s Choice resuming for the Hawkes camp. This bloke hasn’t raced since the June Stakes in the Winter when fourth to Jungle Edge, with the horse seemingly struggling on the bog track. Trial win at Rosehill was very good, ran time, and that form has been franked with Egyptian Symbol winning at the Gold Coast.

4 Missrock (Bet Now: $9.00) would just about be winning this if she was to run to her best. Just depends where she is at. Ran in the Standish on New Years Day and was just fair without being great behind Whispering Brook. Tends to run well down the Flemington straight but she just seems to be off the boil. One last chance in a very winnable race at her best.

I’m a sucker for pain…13 Laure Me In (Bet Now: $2.30) on top. He ran over the mile here on New Years Day…and the run will be hard to beat as one of the toughest to watch. Just ridden far too negatively by Caserta, setting the horse an impossible task. Did a great job to get as close as he did. 1800m is the little query, but if he can get clear air, cover and be within range on the turn, he’s the one.

2 Amadeus (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Mick Kent trained six year old who has been around the mark of late but is just struggling to put wins together on a consistent basis. He ran over the Caulfield mile a fortnight ago where he was near the pace all the way and fought on quite well when third to Black Sail. Up to 1800m looks ideal. He can win…prefer to watch than back.

8 Wenner (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Kenny Keys trained gelding who was I keen on when racing at Caulfield a fortnight ago but I thought he was a touch disappointing. Had the good run near the speed but didn’t show any turn of foot at all and was rather one paced to the line. Sound but nothing flash. Hopefully they find the front and let him roll, because I think that will be his best chance.

She looks just about the bet of the day does 4 Just Hifalutin (Bet Now: $8.50). Was really keen on her when she resumed at Caulfield but for mine Lachie King just didn’t ride the best race on her. Gave her a dig in the ribs to settle wide with cover, which probably isn’t her go, and she couldn’t quite ping late like normal. With a cold steer and last look, she’ll give this a shake I’m sure.

Really keen to see the Will Clarken trained 14 Columbia (Bet Now: $9.00), who is three weeks between runs after racing on the course proper at Morphettville where he was given a 12/10 steer from Jamie Kah and from the home turn onwards, it was a painless watch, and he ran very good late splits relative to the day. Bit more depth, but very likeable.

16 Tbilisi (Bet Now: $14.00) doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates but he hasn’t been far away of late and is trained on the track. Just had far too much to do when racing over 1000m at the Valley a fortnight back but worked home strongly late behind Miss Norway. Hopefully can get cover just off the speed and have last look at the leaders.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 4 Just Hifalutin

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Champagne Cuddles

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 4 Khezerabad

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 11

Leg Two: 2, 5

Leg Three: 2, 3, 6, 8, 13

Leg Four: 4

$50 Investment= 125% of the dividend if successful

Bookmaker	Why Bet	Sign Up	Full Review
	Back Yourself with Ladbrokes!	Join	Review
	Back a Winner with Neds!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Palmerbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Dabble and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to MyBet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review