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A solid card has been assembled for Flemington this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

 

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Race One (11:55am) : The Flemington Family Handicap 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Tricky race to sort out. I liked Jalan Jalan (Best Odds: $3.75) last time out at Caulfield, and I thought she was excellent in defeat when running third to impressive winner Green Card. She should really appreciate the bigger surroundings here, and given it is down the straight, I don’t think she will get held up here and will be allowed every chance to run on.

Big Danger: Demonstrate (Best Odds: $4.00) was given an absolute peach steer from Gauci last time out at Mornington, controlling the race from the front and putting the field away quickly on the turn and holding his rivals comfortably at bay. He should roll along here and he is trained on the track, so he would have had experience down the straight course, which is an advantage.
Roughie: Gold Symphony (Best Odds: $9.00) debuted at Mornington last week and produced a strong finish to storm home and win quite impressively I thought. Time wasn’t as quick as Demonstrate in the previous race on the same program, but that horse had first use of the track, which was rain affected and a tough shifty. Still, the win was very good for a debutante and there is plenty of upside.

 

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Race Two (12:26pm) : Garden View Pavilion Handicap (84) 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Handsome Tycoon (Best Odds: $4.75) tried very hard two back during the Swan Hill Carnival before going to Sale and after a nice sit off the speed, he finished too good for his rivals in what looked a pretty strong 78 race. He is an absolute swimmer, so the weather forecast will be a big key to his prospects this weekend, but his record on the track is pretty solid.
Big Danger: Written Up (Best Odds: $5.50) ran in the Spring Final here last Saturday where he sat on speed and stuck to the task pretty gamely I thought when sixth to Play Master, beaten just under three lengths in a pretty good finish. He has contested some good races in recent times, and he should appreciate the drop in depth. Expecting him to improve sharply.
Roughie: Mio Dio (Best Odds: $31.00) is an absolute swimmer who will be suited by the conditions here. He is on the quick back up after racing last Sunday at Warrnambool (Metro) when doing a great job to finish as close as he did when third to Jarrah Twist given he was near the inside, which was like quicksand, and he was giving the winner a 2kg weight pull. On the minimum here, and with a clear run, he can swoop and charge at these late.

 

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Race Three (1:01pm) : Wilson Medic One Rising Stars Final (84) 1800m: Form Guide

Back Me: Former French mare Iteration (Best Odds: $4.40) had her first Australian run for the Hayes/Dabernig team over 1400m here a couple of weeks back and worked home well late when running third to Jessy Belle, beaten 1.5L. There should be natural improvement from that outing, draws well again and leading apprentice Mick Dee takes the ride, as well as taking 2kg off. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Every Faith (Best Odds: $7.50) worked home strongly to get the job done two back at the Valley before going to the 1400m at Caulfield and she wasn’t suited by the on speed bias in that particular race when fifth to Charmed Harmony, beaten just over eight lengths. Looks suited back up to 1800m and despite drawn awkwardly, she has the class to beat these.
Roughie: Melaleuca (Best Odds: $13.00) ran fifth behind Every Faith in the race that mare won at the Valley, and I thought Melaleuca was pretty good I thought, peeling wide and making up good ground late in a close finish, and that race has held up well as a form reference. She only carries 51.5kg here, likes big tracks and Jess Payne sticks.

 

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Race Four (1:36pm) : VRC Recognition Handicap (90) 1000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Tansy (Best Odds: $4.20) was ridden cold last time out at Ballarat, and those tactics paid dividends, with the gelding swooping on his rivals out wide to win quite impressively. He was a horse who had to lead to win, but as he has got older, he has matured a bit and now has some versatility in terms of his racing pattern. But ridden cold looks his go, because he can unleash a booming finish.
Big Danger: Il Cavallo (Best Odds: $3.60) started favourite in that Ballarat race mentioned above, but despite a soft run outside the leader, he just couldn’t let down with the 61.5kg on the testing surface and plugged away for fourth. He is better than that, he loves racing down the straight, and second up last time in he was narrowly beaten by stakes performed mare Taddei Tondo.
Roughie: Mr Make Believe (Best Odds: $21.00) is another who loves give in the ground, so he gets conditions to suit. He wasn’t beaten far last time out at Ballarat when fourth to all the way winner Sunday Escape, beaten just under three lengths. If the rain continues and we get a heavy track, then this bloke comes right into contention because he just improves lengths on a bog surface.

 

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Race Five (2:15pm) : Chicquita Handicap 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Herstory (Best Odds: $4.00) is a Peter Moody trained filly who stuck to the task pretty gamely on her home track a couple of weeks back when a strong second to Volcanic Ash, beaten just over a length. Fourth in that race was Raposo, and that horse came out and won the Silver Bowl last Saturday here, so the form does read very well for this. This filly is knocking on the door to win a race, and she gets a great chance here.
Big Danger: Little Hottie (Best Odds: $10.00) is the query runner here for Mick Kent. She showed in the Spring that she is a classy filly with a dominant win on debut before running behind Fontein Ruby and Lumosty, and didn’t disgrace herself. She had one run in the Autumn and got too far back, but was good late. Resumes without a trial, but has class and off her two fresh runs, she does seem to race well first up. Check market moves.
Roughie: Amarela (Best Odds: $7.00) has had three runs back from a spell, starting off with a dreadful effort here behind Face Forward. She then went to Sale and stuck on okay behind A Lotta Love. She then went to Caulfield and stormed home late near the inside, which was the worst part of the track, and just missed out when second to Our Harmony. Back on her home track, and now that she has found some form, she can certainly hold it.

 

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Race Six (2:55pm) : Dalray Handicap 1100m: Form Guide

Back Me: Pretty keen here on Supido (Best Odds: $3.50). She hasn’t raced since April 1 when winning her maiden at Sandown, winning comfortably. Hasn’t raced since then, but tuned up for a return to racing with a lovely trial win at Cranbourne a few weeks back, winning by three lengths under little pressure. She dodged the Creswick Series and has been instead saved for possibly the Spring, which is a good lead IMO.
Big Danger: Valiant Warrior (Best Odds: $14.00) is the interesting runner here. The Tassie gelding resumes here after a very successful Carnival back home, winning a stack of good races, including a win over Admiral, who came here and ran a beauty behind Wandjina in the Australian Guineas. His two trials win in preparation for this have been very sharp, and the stable isn’t here for a holiday. They’re here to win.
Roughie: Diamond Baroness (Best Odds: $13.00) is another horse that creates interest. She was kept safe in betting on debut on her home track at Geelong on the Synthetic after a good trial, but I don’t think many would have anticipated the win and how easily she did it in the run and on the line. Fair leap in depth, but you had to be impressed by the win, and with only 52.5kg on her back, she’ll give them something to chase.

 

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Race Seven (3:35pm) : Bruce Gadsden Handicap 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Going with Charmed Harmony (Best Odds: $2.60) here. He was given a lovely front running ride by Katelyn Mallyon to get the job done over this distance at Caulfield, controlling the race from the front and then giving a really good kick when It was needed. Unknown as to whether or not he will run well here, but he is trained on the track and he does look the leader.
Big Danger: Pago Rock (Best Odds: $13.00) steps up in trip after contesting a couple of 1100m races in recent times, with the last start coming in the Sir John Monash when working home okay late to run eighth to stablemate Miss Promiscuity. Back up to 1400m looks ideal now and his recent efforts at Flemington have been quite encouraging.
Roughie: Zuma Roc (Best Odds: $34.00) resumed in the race that Charmed Harmony saluted in, and I think he was just in need of the outing when eighth to that horse, beaten 11 lengths. He is much better than that, and he did look good in a jump out before the first up run. Second up record is terrible, but he has class and record at Flemington is tidy.

 

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Race Eight (4:15pm) : Flemington Event Staff Handicap (90) 1600m: Form Guide

Back Me: Abbasso (Best Odds: $5.50) for me here. He ran over this track/distance two back and worked home okay when seventh to Clemo before going to Sale last week, and under hard riding from Ollie, the Sydney galloper surged late and finished off best to get the job done. Tumbles down to the minimum now, Ollie sticks and this race isn’t overly strong.
Big Danger: He is facing a rise in weight, but Majestic Duke (Best Odds: $7.00) just continues to get the job done, like he did last time out over this track/distance in the Provincial Plate when setting up a lead early on and he just kept finding under the urgings of Dean Yendall. Steve Arnold takes over, and he rode the horse well to victory two back at the Valley. Should lead again and take some beating.
Roughie: Lord Of Brazil (Best Odds: $21.00) is on the quick back up after racing in the Winter Championship Final last Saturday, and though he only finished 11th, he was just a tick over three lengths from the winner. Massive drop in class now, and with the claim for Harry Coffey, he does look well in at the weights, he draws well…he could well improve at odds.

 

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Race Nine (4:55pm) : Briseis Handicap 2000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Bagman (Best Odds: $4.60) has been a big tease for some time, but I thought there was good merit in his effort last time out at Caulfield when making up good ground near the inside. The big track should suit this bloke, he is trained here and despite carrying top weight, he has class.
Big Danger: Shikapour (Best Odds: $5.50) ran in the Country Cup Final over this track/distance last Saturday and stuck to his guns quite well I thought when running a solid fourth to Falago. This race isn’t strong and he now gets right down in the weights after the claim for Mick Dee. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Getting some much needed weight relief will suit Crafty Cruiser (Best Odds: $9.00), who is on the quick back up after racing in the Banjo Patterson here last Saturday where he was not suited at all under the weights scale. The Boris Thornton claim can be used now, and back to 2000m should see improvement.

 

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BEST BET: Race Six Number 5 Supido

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Jalan Jalan

VALUE: Race Eight Number 11 Abbasso

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8

Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 7, 8

Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12

Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 10, 11

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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