One of the real great days on the Australian racing calendar is Golden Slipper Day and it comes around finally this Saturday at Rosehill. Nine races, five of which are at Group l level, highlighted of course by the $3.5 Million Longines Golden Slipper (1200m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (10) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:15) : Irresistible Pools & Spas NE Manion Cup 2400m:
Back Me: Confident on 4 Our Century (Bet Now: $3.20) getting the job done here. Progressive stayer for Team Williams who comes here off the back of a dominant win in the Wangaratta Cup, aided by a peach from Melham. Soft track form is better than what it reads. Tailed off and didn’t pull up 100% then was four lengths off Kingfisher.
Big Danger: 3 Big Duke… (Bet Now: $3.50) can he break this ridiculous drought for Weir in Sydney? Perhaps, but his price is poison. Hasn’t raced since the Launceston Cup where he came with a well timed run under Ben Allen. This is different gravy, but he is a stayer with upside and should be definitely respected.
Long Shot: 5 Cafe Society (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented stayer for the Waterhouse/Bott yard who resumed in the Randwick City (2000m). He sat on speed and looked to travel well in the run but he was just no match for the swimmer that is Astronomos. He has the run under the belt and does look to control things near the pace.
Race Two (12:55) : TAB Birthday Card Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: I’m confident 1 Nancy (Bet Now: $8.00) can bounce back into the winners list. Key runners here come through the Wenona Girl and I thought her effort was very good. 300m out it was no betting as she cruised, but the heavy track and the weight just got her. If she can carry the weight, she’ll go close.
Big Danger: 3 Hieroglyphics (Bet Now: $6.50) also comes through the Wenona Girl. She was given a peach by Moreira near the speed and she fought on so strongly, but she was up against a hard fit mare in Rocket Commander and was nabbed right on the peg. Can she keep up this rich vein of form? Time will tell.
Long Shot: 4 Tempt Me Not (Bet Now: $8.00) is the very interesting runner here. First up for James Cummings after just one run in the Spring where she finished down the track behind subsequent Group l winner Sheidel. Bolted up in a recent trial, indicating she has returned in good order. If she brings her best, she will go close.
Race Three (13:30) : Quickway Constructions Darby Munro Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: With the scratchings and wet track, it really is up in the air. I’m going for the horse with upside and fitness in the system, 3 Cogliere (Bet Now: $23.00). He is a qualifier for the Country Championships after taking out the Taree heat, aided by a a 12/10 from Andrew Adkins. This was due to run at Taree on Wednesday, but thankfully connections accepted here in case that meeting got washed, which is what happened. He has run well in Stakes grade before, and maps well from the gate.
Big Danger: 12 Improvement (Bet Now: $8.50) strung together four on the bounce before going to the Typhoon Tracy at Moonee Valley where it turned out to be a very messy race and she got stuck out wide on a hot speed. Conchita should give her the ideal drag across, and on her previous efforts, she’s right in this.
Long Shot: Gee I thought 11 Conchita (Bet Now: $15.00) was very brave in the Fireball first up. Schofield, don’t know why, elected to stick nearer the inside, which was quicksand for the day, and she kicked on for a brave fifth. I thought that was a very good return. She only needs an ounce of luck to go close here.
Race Four (14:05) : Ranvet Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: 1 Hartnell (BOOSTED ODDS: $2.35) for me but with not much confidence compared to what I had after the Apollo. The wet track on Chipping Norton was supposed to bring him closer to Winx, but really, he was the first horse beat. If he ran well there, he’d be odds on here, but the unknown from last start is the query.
Big Danger: 4 Our Ivanhowe (Bet Now: $7.50) is a star stayer that resumes for Team Freedman. Ran really without winning during the Spring, the last effort being in the Melbourne Cup where the track was too firm. Been set for this Carnival and looked to trial well to my eye. Definite threat, especially with a wet track.
Long Shot: 8 Sofia Rosa (Bet Now: $16.00) is the big watch. Stable pulled the pin on her Spring prep after a couple of poor efforts and was sent back to NZ. Her two runs back from a break have been very good, the latest at Otaki over the mile when finishing off with real purpose. She will eat up the 2000m here and has the fresh legs.
Race Five (14:45) : China Horse Club George Ryder Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: 8 Winx… (Bet Now: $1.18) do I really need to say anything more? Best horse on turf in the world, and IMO the best in the world. Won this race brilliantly last year. Should repeat the dose off the back of a stunning win on a bottomless Randwick surface in the Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m). She’s the best here and she should show that once again to the racing world.
Big Danger: 1 Chautauqua (Bet Now: $7.50) proved he was back to his brilliant best with a fighting second in the Canterbury Stakes (1300m) behind Le Romain. Confident he can turn the tables here given he has more upside and was in the inferior ground when making his run. Doubt he can beat the great mare, but still, second is nothing to sneeze at.
Long Shot: I thought 3 Hauraki (Bet Now: $23.00) and his first up effort in the Canterbury was full of merit behind the front pair. Didn’t really handle the track but stuck on really well. He has the most upside out of that field that line up here. On that basis, he runs second, but he doesn’t have the class of Chautauqua.
Race Six (15:25) : Sky Rosehill Guineas 2000m:
Back Me: 4 Inference (Bet Now: $3.00) seemingly lapped up the bog track in the Randwick Guineas (1600m) and just savaged the line to get the win after Tommy Berry got him to the best ground near the outside fence. He will only improve off that and is the clear horse to beat up to 2000m, especially on his home track. Ticks alot of boxes.
Big Danger: 5 Comin Through (Bet Now: $10.00) is an absolute beauty for the Chris Waller yard. I was keen on him in the Randwick Guineas and to my eye, Moreira did everything he could on the horse. Just wasn’t good enough on the day. I was one who thought he could be a Doncaster horse, but I think the Guineas/Derby path is more his go. He hasn’t got the upside/staying prowess of Inference, but he has more brilliance.
Long Shot: 6 Anaheim (Bet Now: $8.00) was a bit unwanted in betting when contesting the Australian Guineas last time out but gee I thought he was really good late in the piece behind Hey Doc on a day where making ground out as wide as he was proved difficult. He has been set for this Carnival, he comes here with fresh legs, he’ll eat up the extra 400m and I am expecting him to give this a shake.
Race Seven (16:10) : Longines Golden Slipper 1200m:
Back Me: 15 Houtzen (Bet Now: $4.00) is a star speedster and IMO the one to beat, just the price is the negative for me. Blitzed them with sustained speed in the Magic Millions, then toyed with them at Eagle Farm a fortnight back with 63kg on her back over 1000m. She’ll lead them and give them something to think about. Will look the winner at some stage. Last 100m will be her query.
Big Danger: Wasn’t sure what to make of the Blue Diamond form and the win of 9 Catchy (Bet Now: $5.50), but it was well and truly franked last weekend, and the manner in which she won, tells me she will love this assignment. Stable are low flying, she comes here with fresh legs and most importantly, she has ticked the 1200m box.
Long Shot: 6 Trekking (Bet Now: $36.00) is the one for me at the price to have a bet on. I am amazed he was on the drift after his Black Opal effort. I thought the run was outstanding given the tempo was against him, he was first up off one soft trial and did plenty wrong. He’ll eat up the 1200m and is a winner at Rosehill.
Race Eight (16:50) : Nathans Famous Hotdogs Galaxy 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Fell Swoop (Bet Now: $9.00) was galloped on and pulled up very sore after the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) behind Sheidel (Ran well in the Newmarket), so forgive and forget. Trial prior on his home track at Canberra was outstanding, so giving him another chance here in a really open race. Deserves a Group l and gets his chance here on his best form.
Big Danger: 3 English (Bet Now: $6.00) was given an absolute peach of a ride from Blake Shinn got the mare home in the Challenge Stakes (1000m) first up at Randwick. Looked to my eye as if she’d improve off that, and no doubt a firmer track will be right up her alley. Just depends how far back she gets in the run, because she has a lethal turn of foot, but it can’t be sustained for further than around 200m.
Long Shot: 4 Big Money (Bet Now: $31.00) is a grand campaigner for Rod Northam who went within a lip of winning another feature race last time out in the Southern Cross (1200m) where he beat all bar Le Romain in a thrilling finish, who of course has goneon to win another Group l. He is a risk beyond 1200m, so the freshen up back to 1100m and with a hot speed, he’ll be very strong late.
Race Nine (17:30) : Bradford Black Epona Stakes 1900m:
Back Me: Really intrigued to see how 10 Consommateur (Bet Now: $10.00) measures up here. Progressive mare for Mick Kent that was on the Oaks path last year but injury saw her tipped out. Two runs back from a spell have been very good, the latest coming on Feb 22 at Sandown where she finished off with real purpose out wide to get the win. Will love the rise to 1900m and stable know the right horses to bring for the Sydney Carnival.
Big Danger: 6 Song And Laughter (Bet Now: $8.00) has to be respected here. I thought her effort last time out in the Aspiration was one of the runs of the day. She pulled her head off in the run sitting wide without cover until Jay Ford let her slide at the 600m. Hit the front and was only caught the final 150m. If she can relax here, she will take some beating.
Long Shot: Going to give 8 Sofin (Bet Now: $21.00) another look here. Just forget her run in the Parramatta Cup at this track/distance four weeks ago given she scouted out wide, and that ground was pretty much quicksand, and she rightfully finished last behind Classic Uniform. Form prior reads well and she will love getting back to her own sex albeit up in depth/grade.
Race Ten (18:05) : Provincial Championships Qualifier 1200m:
Back Me: 13 Pomelo (Bet Now: $3.70) is the hard fit runner with some excellent form next to her name. Spanked them two back on her home track at Kembla Grange before coming to the midweeks at Randwick where she led all the way and again and gave them a nice caning. The time she ran that day was quite slow, which is the worry against some nice types here, but she has the fitness edge.
Big Danger: 17 The Wasp (Bet Now: $15.00) has to go in as a key threat. Two from two this time in for the Kris Lees yard, the latest coming over 900m at Scone when surging late under Tye Angland. Seems to love racing on rain affected ground, including trials, and gets Avdulla steering, plus is hard fit, so he ticks a few boxes here.
Long Shot: I’m wary of 10 Appoint Percy (Bet Now: $15.00). Smart galloper for Luke Pepper that is city class on his best form. Resumed at Wagga where it looked as if it was a barrier trial for him. Just got a mile back yet worked home strongly with purpose. Bolted up on a heavy track at Albury last year and is proven in town. Big threat.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 4 Inference
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Our Century
VALUE: Race Nine Number 10 Consommateur
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 9
Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 9, 11, 13, 15
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10
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