18/9/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Nicopolis Stakes day

Belmont will play host to a nine race card on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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I’m with 1 Celevacci (Bet Now: $3.40) in a race for Adam Durrant I feel. This guy is 2/2 to start his career, the latest win being an all the way victory here a few weeks ago in dominant fashion, being strong to the line and through it. Tick over trial was a good piece of work and should take a power of beating.

4 Henchard (Bet Now: $3.45) is a stablemate of Celevacci who has Pike and a soft draw so will no doubt be hard in the market. Really good effort on debut here before stepping up to the mile at Northam where he was expected to win and despite a battle to get the win, he eventually did. Pike and the inside gate means he commands respect.

3 Gorgeous Gossip (Bet Now: $11.00) is a little query at the mile but will be out of trouble on speed and giving her all. That was the case over 1400m here last time out and she gave a really good kick from the front, just feeling the pinch late. Not sure she can win, but one for exotics.

Just how good is 2 Kaptain Kaos? (Bet Now: $1.90) He’s a very progressive animal for Michael Grantham that was a big winner here last time out, finishing his race with real purpose and nailing them near the peg. He’s a line chaser and he looks the clear horse to beat against this lot.

There is a decent shower forecast for Thursday and if that hits the track, it plays against 6 Phoneme (Bet Now: $10.00) given he is a dead set dry tracker, which is why I can forgive him for his last couple of runs. The track rating will determine his claims and how strong they are. Good 4 or better, hard to beat. Soft 5 or worse, he may struggle.

5 Miss Marietta (Bet Now: $15.00) is three weeks between runs for Brett Pope since racing in the Kaptain Kaos race mentioned above when wide throughout, doing plenty of work, and feeling the pinch late. Draws much better this time around and an improved showing is on the cards.

3 Dance Cockey (Bet Now: $5.50) on top. Carey Martin trained gelding that has put together a solid record. Last start in a strong race at Northam, he was on speed and tried hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to proven Saturday performer Bedouin Belle. That reads well for this.

4 Famous Jurney (Bet Now: $13.00) comes out of maiden grade, but overall, he strikes a pretty thin 0MW race. Resumed in a Northam maiden where he was on speed and looked to be trucking before booting clear and was strong to the line. He has the right racing pattern to give himself every chance.

5 Snipillicious (Bet Now: $7.50) is an Adam Durrant trained gelding that resumes. This guy ran at the provincials towards the end of last prep and didn’t exactly measure up, so resuming in town is interesting but have to back in the judgement of the leading camp to get him ready.

I’m with 1 War Gem (Bet Now: $3.60). Neville Parnham trained three year old that is on the seven day back up after racing at this track/distance last Saturday where he was quite keen behind the speed and though held up, he was no match for Red Fifty Three, who looks above average. That form reads well for this.

4 Buzzoom (Bet Now: $2.45) looks to have good ability for Dan Morton. Resumed last Wednesday here where she was flat footed when the sprint went on, but picked up late and got close. Better for the run, she has runs on the board from last prep to give this a shake.

3 Born To Talk (Bet Now: $14.00) has done little wrong in two career outings for Neville Parnham. Last time out at Northam, he did work on speed and tried hard, just failing to finish it off. Harder here, but draws to do no work in the run and is an absolute must for exotics I’d suggest.

4 No Apology (Bet Now: $5.50) should take a power of beating here. Stephen Miller trained gelding that has raced over 1400m here in both runs back from a spell, the latest run being two weeks ago when hailed as the winner but was nabbed near the peg by Fangio. Gets a good weight pull on that horse here and has a much better map.

5 Fangio (Bet Now: $4.20) is a talented mare for Roy Rogers who should be suited up in trip. Resumed over 1400m here a fortnight back when given a 12/10 steer by Pike nearer the inside, driving through hard late to get the win in the last stride. Creeping up in the weights, but she’s very genuine.

8 Mr Delegator (Bet Now: $6.50) has to step up a bit in grade/depth but the one thing going for him is a potential soft lead and that is one thing that a decent chunk of these McDonagh horses like. They love to dominate from the front, so will be interesting to see how they ride this guy up in grade, but I think he has the talent to measure up.

6 Indigo Blue (Bet Now: $5.00) on top in a tricky 1MW race. This mare resumes for Adam Durrant who has only won the one race from 11 outings but has shown good ability to date, including a blacktype run from three back. Trialled well leading in and though drawn wide, should be around the mark.

8 Reliable Star (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Reliable Man mare for Adam Durrant that resumes. This girl showed good promise in the Autumn, which included efforts in the WA Oaks and WA Derby, the latter run a strong fourth. Pike rides, trialled well and has a touch of quality about her.

George Dupre has 3 Marlize (Bet Now: $8.50) in just about career best form and has to be respected here with hard race fitness under the belt. Ran over 1400m here two weeks ago and surged from off the speed, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Ohbeeh. Harder here I feel but hard to knock the way she’s racing.

This is a really strong race with good depth. Getting hard fit now and with a soft gate, this is D-Day for 5 Son Of A God (Bet Now: $5.50). Last start in the Jolly Beggar, just had to get dragged back a touch but liked the way he finished his race off. He can sit closer from the good draw and is hard fit now.

2 Pym’s Royale (Bet Now: $18.00) deserves another chance I feel. Three weeks between runs since contesting the Idyllic Prince when wide no cover, doing a power of work, and tiring in the straight to run last. The first up run was a beauty, and drawn better, he can bounce back.

1 Excellent Dream (Bet Now: $9.50) can be a big improver here. This gelding resumed in the Jolly Beggar where he paraded like he would need the run and that is how it panned out behind Iseered Iseered. Like him up in trip, should use gate one to advantage and his best is good enough.

I’ll take a chance on 5 Queen Takes King (Bet Now: $6.00), resuming for Lindsey Smith. This mare was trying to force her way into the Jericho Cup in the Autumn but was a tired horse in the Qualifier and dropped out. Trialled well leading in, drawn well and gets Paul Harvey, so she’ll take beating I’d suggest, depending on what the market does.

2 Sowar (Bet Now: $4.80) is bursting to win a race in town. Steve Wolfe trained gelding that ran over 2200m here two weeks ago where he had a dream sit behind the speed and loomed large to win but couldn’t quite finish it off and had to settle for a narrow second. Back to 2000m I like, hard fit, in form…just needs a win on the board.

13 Miss Voodoo (Bet Now: $11.00) is a little query at 2000m but does have upside/progression and gets Pike steering, so she has a bit in her corner. Just did a bit too much work last time out after making a mid race move, dying on the run. If the 2000m isn’t an issue, definite winning chance.

I think 5 All Day Session (Bet Now: $4.00) is going well and can take this out. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he was building the revs nicely and making up good ground before getting chopped out very late when a close up fifth. If the breaks go his way, he can take this out.

2 Sunnysilk (Bet Now: $6.50) is a David Harrison trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since June 19 when a strong winner at this track/distance, beating home Dunbar, who isn’t exactly a tough nut, so will need to improve, but draws soft, goes well fresh and loves Belmont.

Staying at the mile is the only real knock with 8 Solid Azza (Bet Now: $10.00) for David Harrison. Resumed at this track/distance two weeks back and was one of the real eye catchers of the meeting from near last in the run when a close up fourth to impressive winner Spin The Knife. Fitter, draws well…just wish this was 1200m.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 4 No Apology

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Kaptain Kaos

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 5 Queen Takes King

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 6, 8

Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 8

Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 13

Leg Four: 2, 5, 7, 8

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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