The Sydney Autumn Carnival wraps up this Saturday at Randwick for All Aged Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is a good (4) and the rail is out seven metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; Out five metres for the remainder.
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Race 1. (11:30) Midway (Bm72) 1400m
4 Audrey’s Lane (Bet Now:Β $4.80) should have won the Midway three weeks ago at Rosehill. She got badly held up in behind them and didn’t really get room to move in a total forgive I thought when third to Annie’s Rose. 1400m should be fine and with a more positive ride, will take beating.
10 Danish Prince (Bet Now:Β $14.00) ran second to Annie’s Rose at Rosehill three weeks back. He was first up, sitting on speed and tried hard, but had no answers for the finale of Annie’s Rose. Good racing style, good upside, he’s right in the mix.
5 Vetwelve (Bet Now:Β $10.00) has probably been a bit disappointing during his career as I thought he was a really good horse early days. His two runs this preparation have only been ‘okay’ but I am going to take him on trust here and say he will run a huge race at big odds.
Race 2. (12:05) Tab Highway Hcp (C3) 1400m
13 Andale Andale (Bet Now:Β $17.00) as luckless last time out albeit in an easier race than this. Two starts ago again had no luck so I am happy to put a line through her last two runs. The start before she was really impressive and from barrier 3 I think she will get the run of the race and be hard to beat at good each way odds.
1 Micro Mikki (Bet Now:Β $5.50) was big odds in the Country Championships Final but he ran out of his skin I thought when third after sitting wide no cover for the trip. If that hasn’t busted him, then surely he takes beating against these.
7 Christa (Bet Now:Β $23.00) is third up from a spell and should be at peak fitness. She has been solid in two runs back, both at Muswellbrook. Latest run saw her get a mile out of her ground but was solid late in the piece without threatening. If she can use the inside gate to advantage, she’s dangerous.
Race 3. (12:40) Catanach's Jewellers (Bm88) 1200m
Ability wise, I am convinced that 16 Scintilla (Bet Now:Β $6.50) is the best horse in the race. Just a matter of where she is at re fitness levels. Les Bridge trained mare that hasn’t raced since March 1 last year when far from disgraced at Flemington in the Inglis Sprint. Loved her trial work for the return, she’s a leading contender.
2 Signor Tortoni (Bet Now:Β $5.50) is one of the hardest to beat after his placing in the Star Kingdom three weeks ago. He was there to win but just couldn’t quite get there when third to Roselyn’s Star. Maps to get a sweet sit in transit and be dangerous.
3 De Bergerac (Bet Now:Β $10.00) is dangerous. He comes through the Star Kingdom as well, getting back off speed and worked home well enough against the pattern behind Roselyn’s Star. Maps tp settle much closer and be effective late.
Race 4. (13:15) James H B Carr Stakes (G3) 1400m
1 Plaintiff (Bet Now:Β $2.15) commands respect for Peter Snowden. Looked prepped right up for the PJ Bell and under a confident steer from Jordan Childs, she gave them a start and a beating in an impressive effort. Confidence is up, like her up to 1400m, she’s one of the hardest to beat.
3 Karinska (Bet Now:Β $7.50) has class and she will carry that with her a long way. Freshened up since a midfield finish in the Surround, her tick over trial was encouraging and does get J Mac back on. Her best is good enough to be dangerous.
4 Tomato Toastie (Bet Now:Β $5.50) has to be given respect off his PJ Bell effort, where she got off speed and worked home well in a solid effort behind Plaintiff. Like the rise to 1400m for her and if she can settle closer, she’ll take beating.
Race 5. (13:50) Frank Packer Plate (G3) 2000m
Pretty keen here on 2 Providence (Bet Now:Β $7.50). Staying at the mile in the Carbine Club was perplexing I thought given he looks a stayer. He stayed on and was game in defeat but not 100% sold he was happy on the shifty track. Back on a firmer deck, and rising to 2000m, he’ll take beating.
1 Matias (Bet Now:Β $2.70) should love the rise to 2000m and I think could well stamp himself as a Queensland Derby contender. He ran in the Carbine Club a fortnight back, just being forced in the wrong part of the track but loved the way he kept chasing. Hard fit, 2000m, he appeals.
9 Monopolistic (Bet Now:Β $14.00) was good late in the Carbine Club I thought. Off a freshen up, he got back to near last in the run but worked home with real purpose. Like him up to 2000m and will be strong late. A definite threat.
Race 6. (14:25) Jra Plate (G3) 2000m
I can’t see 2 Just Fine (Bet Now:Β $12.00) running poorly here. Total forgive/forget in the brutally run Australian Cup, and what I like is that he’s had the extra week off vs those who ran last Saturday out of that race, they were completely cast/tired. He races best when leading and I am expecting this track to be dynamite fence in run/on speed, where he should be.
9 Portland (Bet Now:Β $10.00) is flying for Matty Smith. He was really good against the pattern in the Neville Sellwood, coming wide in the straight and worked home really well behind Wootton Verni. Getting towards peak fitness, can settle closer, he’ll take beating.
6 Encoder (Bet Now:Β $11.00) is one of the hardest to beat for Michael Freedman after a Gold Coast Stakes triumph a few weeks back. Credit to him, he was there to be beaten but he found under pressure to fend them off and score. Fitter and 2000m, he appeals.
Race 7. (15:00) Champagne Stakes (G1) 1600m
1 Campione D’Italia (Bet Now:Β $2.25) is the one to beat. Not sure he was 100% happy on the wet track in the Sires but class came to the fore and he was strong to the line in winning. The extra 200m should be fine, especially on a firmer deck, and is one of the hardest to beat.
10 Miss Chanel (Bet Now:Β $6.00) is an iron filly for GaiBott. I thought she had none in the Sires but I loved the way she kept chasing and attacking the line in defeat behind Campione D’Italia. The rise to 1600m, I think, is okay…just depends what is left in the tank.
She is on the seven day back up, but really, 13 Sumac (Bet Now:Β $19.00) will bring fresh legs into this race. Little luck in the Baillieu and then the Fernhill last Saturday was basically a barrier trial. I think she’ll eat up the mile and yes, the favourite is hard to beat, but outside him, this race is very thin, so I think she is in with a shout.
Race 8. (15:40) Hall Mark Stakes (G3) 1200m
8 Kerguelen (Bet Now:Β $5.50) has had a couple of runs at 1100m and is racing like 1200m is ideal. He ran in the Maurice McCarten where he just got too far back but was good late in the piece. Third up and hard fit, he appeals.
7 King’s Secret (Bet Now:Β $7.00) was a total forgive from the Star Kingdom given he was wide no cover for the trip and the hard run just told on him late in the piece. Better run in transit, he is more than good enough to take this out.
10 Brave One (Bet Now:Β $17.00) is a very interesting runner in the race. He has shown plenty of ability in his short career and I think he can match it in a field like this. It will be the testing material for him but he has probably more upside than the rest of these so a win would not surprise at good odds.
Race 9. (16:20) All Aged Stakes (G1) 1400m
I love Jimmysstar, think he’s right on track, likewise Fangirl…but the value for me is clearly 6 Pericles (Bet Now:Β $9.50), assuming he does run here. He has had barrier trials his past two and I am convinced he places in the Doncaster if he follows Sheza Alibi. Hoping for more intent here, likely stalks the bunny in Beiwacht and he’ll be effective late, especially on a firm deck.
2 Jimmysstar (Bet Now:Β $5.50) is right on track. Total forgive in the William Reid before going to the TJ Smith where I thought he was given none by Ethan Brown yet the horse charged to the line late behind Joliestar, crying out for more ground, which he gets here…he looks terribly hard to beat.
14 Beiwacht (Bet Now:Β $6.50) will jump on the bunny and take running down. I think he would have gone close in the Arrowfield last week but I dare say the team would love him to get a Group l win against older horses before being retired. He should land in front and on a dry track, leaders will be suited, he’ll be hard to get past.
Race 10. (16:55) Hkjc World Pool (Bm100) 1400m
18 Captain Furai (Bet Now:Β $3.20) is three weeks between runs since a win over this trip at Rosehill. Admittedly he had the A1 run in transit but even allowing for that, he was dominant and impressive in the run to the line. Flying this horse and will take beating.
6 Lord Penman (Bet Now:Β $7.00) should run really well. He ran three weeks ago in the Doncaster Prelude in what was a fast run race and at the top of the straight, thought it was no betting when he loomed but the hard run race just found him out late, which followed a barrier trial the run prior, so he should be toughened right up and is in the mix.
3 Unspoken (Bet Now:Β $81.00) comes through the Parramatta Cup earlier on in the Autumn. He got off speed and seemed to have his chance but just whacked in the run to the line behind Piggyback. Fresh legs, may need the run, but I think he’s dangerous at a price.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Providence
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Campione DβItalia
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 6 Pericles
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 4, 10, 13
Leg Two: 7, 8
Leg Three: 2, 6, 11, 12, 14
Leg Four: 6, 18
$50 Investment = 62.5% of the dividend if successful
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