18/12/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

Nine races will be run and won at Flemington on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

1 Luna Cat (Bet Now: $3.40 TOP ODDS) looks a progressive filly for Team Hayes that is trying to make it three on the bounce. Strong win two back over 1300m at Bendigo before going to 1200m at The Valley where she sat off the speed before being presented clear air and she showed good change up speed, put them away and was impressive. She has good change up speed and that is suited for this track.

2 Lavish Girl (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) should be suited here for the Maher/Eustace camp. This filly has had two runs back from a freshen up, both in Stakes company, and I think she has been far from disgraced on both occasions, the latest a third in the Twilight Glow to Lady Of Honour. Back to 70 grade, she appeals.

3 Destiny Diamond (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited here for the Maher/Eustace camp. This filly has had two runs back from a freshen up, both in Stakes company, and I think she has been far from disgraced on both occasions, the latest a third in the Twilight Glow to Lady Of Honour. Back to 70 grade, she appeals.

2 Squid Game (Bet Now: $2.45 TOP ODDS) is a talented animal for Patrick Payne. Market wanted him on debut at Sandown and the bets were landed with a sharp win, wearing down Treporti, who won at The Valley last Friday night, so the form reads well and finds a winnable Saturday metro race.

7 Capo Strada (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS) should be suited here for James Cummings with #SF. Dominant all the way win fresh at Gosford. Then went to Rosehill and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Starman in what looked a good race on paper and it was indeed a good race post the event. Gate one, he’ll be near the front and proving hard to run down.

5 Kyokushin (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting. I’m always wary of Kyneton form, especially George Osborne runners on the track, and that form translating away from there, but it was an impressive debut win, and the market knew he was there to run well. Watch the market and see what it does.

5 Long Arm (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is ticking along beautifully towards the Bagot. I was on him at the big odds in the Pakenham Cup and while he wasn’t beating Smokin’ Romans, I think he places if he got a clear crack in the straight. Ran well here on Cup Day and with clear air, I think he can take this out.

The Maher/Eustace camp are re-writing history when it comes to training stayers. Once upon a time you wouldn’t dare back a horse in a 2400m+ race off a six week or so break, but voila, Smokin’ Romans bolted up in the Pakenham Cup. They have 6 High Emocean (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) running here, who hasn’t raced since October 16 when down the track in the St Leger at Randwick. Huge market watch with this mare.

3 Double You Tee (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is suited in races where it is sit/sprint and he’s within range. The set up was good for him at Ballarat two back but he was just a mile off them, spotting too much head start. Forgive the Werribee Cup effort given it was a strong tempo and that just didn’t suit him. If he’s within range here and it turns into a 600m dash, he can win without shocking.

11 Wegobam (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) on top. Team Corstens trained mare that resumed over 1200m at the Bool. Think you could make a case to say that with clear air, she wins the race instead of a luckless closing third to La Marita. Stable/Jock combo are flying at the moment and drawn out, which I think will be the right part of the track…hard to beat.

5 Engima (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is flying at the moment for the Price/Kent camp. Has won two on the bounce, both wins coming over 1100m at Hamilton with sustained speed coming to the fore. If she can stretch her brilliance to 1200m, they’re cooking with gas and she’ll look the winner for a long way.

6 Stardern Lass (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a consistent mare that is rarely far away. Maher/Eustace mare that ran over 1300m at Geelong where she got back to near last in the run and worked home with real purpose late when second to Gentleman Roy. Back to 1200m I find interesting but hard to knock the decision making of the stable.

14 Way To Go Paula (Bet Now: $4.00) looks extremely hard to beat. It was awful placement by the Stokes camp IMO in the Gold Bullion at Pakenham given how poorly she was weighted given her rating. Thankfully, the result wasn’t the one expected and it didn’t hurt her rating too much. She can go through her grades, win and potentially get to blacktype in the future.

8 Dimmagio (Bet Now: $23.00) is much better suited at this level. Thrown in the deep end in the Gold Bullion at Pakenham and I thought he was far from disgraced in defeat in a good effort behind Looks Like Elvis. Back to 70 grade, I think he has to be respected against this lot.

4 Litchfield County (Bet Now: $17.00) is getting close to D-Day. He has done very little in two runs back from a break, the latest seeing him finish down the track behind Marabi at Ballarat after seemingly getting every chance I felt. His best is clearly good enough. Just needs to show it now.

1 Blazejowski (Bet Now: $4.80) is flying for Greg Eurell. Two runs back from a break have been excellent. Condition just blew out fresh in the Apache Cat, then went to Pakenham where he loomed to win but I think, again, condition just gave way. Hard fit now and up to his pet trip, he’ll take beating.

5 Second Slip (Bet Now: $3.00) is three weeks between runs for Will Clarken since contesting the City Of Marion where he was far from disgraced in defeat in a hot race won by Outlaws Revenge, who won again last Saturday, so the form reads well. Stable get it rarely wrong when they come across and gets J Kah.

8 Neighbourhood… (Bet Now: $11.00) she is a hard horse to catch but she has the talent to be around the mark. Ran over 1200m at Pakenham last time and worked to the line okay after not getting much luck in the straight behind Defiant Dancer. Had fit now and up to 1400m, she can win this.

7 The Gauch (Bet Now: $5.00) is a very honest animal for the Maher/Eustace camp that is rarely far away from the thick end of the prize. Loomed to win at Ballarat last time but couldn’t quite get there and had to settle for a second to Ocean Beyond. If he holds his form, he’ll be around the mark.

5 It’sourtime (Bet Now: $3.50) is a talented animal for Danny O’Brien that looks to have come back in super order. Jumped out well prior to resuming on Stakes Day at Flemington down the straight. Had a fair bit of work to do from where he was but he still managed to drive hard late and win, producing the best last 200m of the meeting. He’s going to look the winner at some stage.

3 Ranting (Bet Now: $11.00) has only won the one race, but you’re getting good odds to keep the faith. Kept very safe in the market two weeks ago at Pakenham and was good in defeat given he was nearer the inside and the inside was the no go zone. I think he finds a really winnable race here.

9 High ‘N’ Dry (Bet Now: $3.20) is flying for Matty Ellerton and the big tick for him is the serious weight relief. Ran over the mile at Pakenham two weeks back and closed off well albeit just no match for a progressive horse, Lyrical Lad. Whether he wants further now, not sure, but has to be respected.

11 Real Sensation (Bet Now: $3.70) is a hard horse to follow and trust with confidence but he’s a horse who certainly has the talent and I think back up to the mile is a big positive. Loved the way he found the line in the Gold Bullion two weeks ago at Pakenham when third to dominant winner Looks Like Elvis. Back up in trip, I think he’ll take beating.

2 Black Sail (Bet Now: $18.00) isn’t racing too bad at the moment for the Maher/Eustace camp. Ran in an open handicap at Pakenham and was far from disgraced I thought behind Frankie Pinot in a race shape which I don’t think suited him. He finds a winnable race here if he finds his best.

1 Alleboom (Bet Now: $5.50) is a very, very honest animal. Ben Price didn’t ride him the best on the Parks track last time, sitting wide no cover on speed, pouring the pressure on and was left a sitting shot for the swoopers. Did a remarkable job to hang on for third. If that hasn’t busted him, he’ll take beating here.

Not sure if there is upside left with 2 Yulong Command (Bet Now: $3.20) but I think he just has to hold his form to go close. Three weeks between runs since a game on speed fourth in the Doveton behind a talented filly, Enthaar. Gets in well after the claim and he has the speed to sit wherever Cartwright feels like.

6 Snapper (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Michael Moroney trained gelding that resumes. Had a two run Spring prep where he ran solid races but didn’t win. He is a quality when right and looks to have jumped out well leading in so I’d watch the market with him and see what it does.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 14 Way To Go Paula

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Squid Game

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 1 Alleboom

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 7, 8

Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 7, 11

Leg Three: 1, 2, 9, 11

Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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