18/11/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Thousand Guineas day

Group l racing returns to Caulfield on Saturday, with the Thousand Guineas and Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes the features across the ten event program. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Great to see 1 Dunkel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) back at the races. The SA Derby winner has been kept on ice since that Group l win, with Patrick Payne saying that he wanted to give the horse a light Spring with an eye towards 2024. His trial/jumpout work has been more than encouraging and first up at 1800m tells me there is some form of intent to run well first up.

4 Let’srollthedice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for Danny O’Brien, having not raced since October 1 when midfield over 1800m at Sandown where he seemingly had every chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind the in form Team Freedman stayer. He is a horse who can race well when he has fresh legs so I’d watch the market and see what it does.

5 Saint Bathans (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Andrew Forsman, who to be fair has had a horrendous Spring compared to last year. Just needed the run fresh here behind Jennilala before going to Flemington when just off the speed and was never a factor behind Pascero. Two runs at 1400m under the belt and now up in trip, his best is good enough.

4 Meridius (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have come back in super order for Kennewell/Yeomans and I am confident he runs well here. I was keen on him when resuming on Geelong Cup Day and unfortunately things didn’t go to plan for him and it ended up being an ugly watch behind Lafargue. Fitter and up to 1400m, I think with a more positive ride, he’ll take beating.

6 Robusto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Chris Waller. He ran on Cup Day at Flemington where he seemingly had every chance in transit but that said, he wasn’t beaten far behind Pascero. He should be hard fit now, he gets J Mac sticking and the depth here, as a whole, is a bit on the thin side.

9 First Mate (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good track/distance record and is dangerous. He was off a break when resuming on Bendigo Cup Day over 1400m where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out behind Dashing. Better for the run under the belt, he is good enough to take this out so watch the market and see what it does.

10 Mr Mojo Risin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can certainly go on with it. Punters thought he was a moral when racing at The Valley last time out and despite a few nervous moments in the run, he was pretty much always in control and he was far too good for them. He is a good horse when right and now off a win, he’ll take beating against this lot.

2 Tobaysure (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should prove hard to beat here. He resumed in the VOBIS Gold Star at The Valley and credit to him the way he toughed it out to win given he was first up and there to be beaten, but he found under pressure to fend them off. Improvement to come, form around him is strong and has a good racing style. Leading contender.

5 Big Brew (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying this time in for Team Hope and is one of the leading contenders.The ride from Childs was a peach on Bendigo Cup Day where he was ridden with intent, making a move before the turn to be within range and was quite strong to the line late in the piece, fending them off and winning. Has run well at the track/distance previously and off a win, he commands respect.

12 Miraval Rose (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly I have time for. I thought she would be hard to beat on Oaks Day in the Red Roses but the stable have kept her on ice. Arrogant first up win at Kyneton and the form out of it has been strong and she had plenty in hand. She is the one with upside, good racing style…stable has been unlucky this Spring but hoping this girl can turn the tide.

2 Saltaire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win a Stakes race for John O’Shea. She ran down the straight on Oaks Day in the Red Roses and was as game as ever from the back but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to Mumbai Muse. Back up to 1200m should be fine, form around her is strong…hard to beat I’d suggest.

6 Material Dreams… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) beware the unbeaten horse. This filly is 3/3 to start her career, resuming with a win on Bendigo Cup Day and yes, the runner up should have won, but this girl kicked hard and defied a notable betting drift to get the job done. Maps to get a beaut run in transit…not sure I could back her to win but a must for exotics.

11 Sghirripa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) deserves a crack at Stakes grade. He is flying for Team Oxlade and is becoming one of the better short course gallopers in SA. 2/2 this prep, and both wins have been quite dominant, the latest win being two weeks ago over 1050m at Morphettville. Lands on speed you’d think and down in the weights, hard fit, he’ll take beating.

12 Fasuto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) brings a touch of quality about him and is suited at this level. He ran in the 1000m open sprint on Cox Plate Day at The Valley where he sat last in the run and did make up headway but was never really threatening behind Ashford Street, a noted track specialist. That was his first run in four weeks so with room for improvement, he rates highly.

8 Zac De Boss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout chance with his absolute best IMO. He ran on Geelong Cup Day when on speed throughout and tried his guts out but just didn’t have the finale to go with them late in the piece behind Lafargue. He gets good weight relief here, he has relatively fresh legs…not sure he wins, but can pinch a first four spot.

I am a fan of 6 Run Harry Run (Bet Now:  $SP.00) and he seems a big price here. He’s a big boy who has plenty to learn but I think he has an engine under the hood. Loved the way he sustained a run to win on Bendigo Cup Day and yes, this is harder, but I reckon he’s worth something small at the price because he is a horse on the up with a good racing style.

1 Arkansaw Kid (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the runs on the board to command respect. Strong winner two back here before going to the Coolmore Stud when thrown in the deep end and I thought he didn’t disgrace himself at all in a hot race won by Ozzmosis. Racing like 1400m will suit IMO and with a class edge, he appeals big time.

9 Treasurway (Bet Now:  $SP.00) drops miles in grade/depth after racing in the Coolmore Stud two weeks ago where she was outclassed on paper but in the end, I thought she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Ozzmosis. If 1400m is okay for her, which I think it will be, then for mine she rates highly as one of the leading contenders.

4 Arctic Glamour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) must have pleased the stable to keep persisting with the prep and for mine, that is enough to say she can win. She was odds on in the Callander-Presnell three weeks ago at Randwick where she seemingly had every chance in behind but was very plain when clean behind Chrysaor. The wins prior were outstanding and they were certainly good enough to take this out.

3 Skybird… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) beware the unbeaten horse. This filly was a superb winner of the Fillies Classic at The Valley, where she was kissed on the rump with the run and the ride from Beau Mertens, with the inside opening right up and she was able to let down with purpose late to win and win well. She could be a jet and blow these…she can win, but do I want to back at the current odds? No. I’d want much better.

1 Kimochi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1600m for Gary Portelli. She was runner up in the Flight Stakes before being freshened up. She ran on Cup Day at Flemington in the Desirable and was good from off the speed when third to Roll On High. Proven miler in the field, has runs on the board and we know how dominant #SF can be in these G1 races. Commands respect.

12 Munhamek (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks cherry ripe for this race. He resumed two weeks ago at Flemington at this trip where it could have ended up being a 12/10 from Shinn from the wide gate but unfortunately he didn’t get the splits until very late in a great return. He’s been set for the race, he loves racing at Caulfield, sits off a good speed…he only runs well for mine.

11 Magic Time (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Grahame Begg since contesting The Invitation at Randwick where she was wide no cover throughout yet kept on and looked like she would get the win but was nabbed late by a quality mare, Espiona, who ran super last Saturday in the Champions Sprint so the form reads super and if she holds her form, she’ll take beating.

4 Bandersnatch (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the map horse to my eye. He ran in the same Flemington race that Munhamek contested when wide no cover on speed and fought on bravely after the work he did in the run, finishing a narrow second to Cause For Concern. Maps to get a much better run in transit and with weight relief, is one of the key chances.

1 Banker’s Choice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the back up for Michael Moroney after racing last Saturday in the Champions Mile where he copped a nasty check early on in the straight which put pay to him being any sort of threat behind Pride Of Jenni. He has won at 2000m previously and he brings the A1 form compared to the rest of these. He appeals big time.

5 Maktoob (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect for Simon Zahra. He comes here, where he won two back, off the back of a win in the Sale Cup where he gave them a start and a beating in an impressive display, proving quite strong to the line over the mile so 2000m here should be fine and the way he’s racing at the moment, he can win this for sure.

6 Captain Envious (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate rising back up to 2000m. He was 2100m back to 1800m two weeks back in the John Letts Cup at Morphettville where he kept finding the line from off the speed, just missing out on the win when a close up second to Pudding. Up in trip again should be ideal and he certainly has the quality to measure up.

2 She Dances (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is absolutely flying for Moody/Coleman and looks the straight bat option. This mare won the Chautauqua at The Valley last time where she controlled things on speed outside the leader before eventually drawing clear late and was quite dominant late on the line. Won here two back, she’s clearly the one to beat.

3 Rose Quartz (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate getting back up to 1200m for Grahame Begg. She comes through the Furphy Sprint on Derby Day where Shinn rode the inside fence and it didn’t work out, tiring late behind Queen Of The Ball, and with hindsight, he should have stayed outside given that is where the winners came from when it came to straight races during Cup Week. Convinced she is flying and can bounce back.

4 Unusual Culture (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality mare for Maher/Eustace that resumes. She hasn’t raced since July 1 when a close up fourth in the Winter Championship Final after seemingly getting every chance in transit. I do think 1600m sees her out and she is more of a 1200m/1400m horse so resuming here at 1200m I like and her recent jumpout work has been more than encouraging.

BEST BET: Race Ten Number 2 She Dances

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 12 Miraval Rose

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 12 Munhamek

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 11, 12

Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6

Leg Four: 2

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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