Melbourne racing this Saturday heads to Moonee Valley for a nine race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:15) : Friends Of Epworth Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 11 Truly Discreet (Bet Now: $15.00) gets the nod for me here at some value. Well bred filly that was safe at odds when debuting at Ballarat and gee if you backed her, like I did, it was just a nightmare. Should have gone close to winning but just had no luck in the straight. C Williams booked is a very good lead, especially with the nice gate.
Big Danger: 4 Behave (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Mick Kent trained filly who was very safe in the market when resuming at this track/distance a fortnight back and loomed to win when dashing out wide but just didn’t get the bob in. Should only take benefit from that outing and looks one of the hardest to beat here.
Long Shot: 2 Elle Street (Bet Now: $14.00) had some solid market support when debuting at Wangaratta and despite doing plenty wrong in the straight, gee I thought she was quite impressive in getting the job done. Obviously harder here, but she should come on from that, draws the rail and has enormous upside.
Race Two (12:50) : Bidfood Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 1 If Not Now When (Bet Now: $3.50) on top for me in a really ordinary race for the fillies. She hasn’t raced for five weeks since racing over 1050m at Morphettville where she got a mile back in the run in the big field but I really liked the way she finished off behind Mulder. That form reads very well for this and she will be strong late.
Big Danger: 5 Airino (Bet Now: $4.20) comes through the Miss Iano race at Pakenham. This John Sadler trained filly sat outside the speed most of the way and loomed to win the race, indeed looking the winner, but the eventual winner just packed too many punches. She will be much better suited on firmer ground here and is a knockout chance at odds.
Long Shot: 6 Ariaz (Bet Now: $8.50) is nothing special but she tries hard and she finds a very winnable race here on her best form. had the nice sit behind the speed last start on a bog Pakenham surface but just couldn’t quite quicken well enough behind Miss Iano. Better on top of the ground and stable have a good strike rate at the Valley.
Race Three (13:28) : Zouki Handicap (84) 1000m:
Back Me: 11 Essence Of Terror (Bet Now: $10.00) couldn’t have asked for a better run when racing on the Geelong Synthetic last time out and when Symons gave her clear air, it was game over, but no sooner had she got clear, the wheels started spinning and she was tiring. The run prior at Caulfield behind Vital Importance reads much better for this.
Big Danger: 3 Miss Vista (Bet Now: $3.30) is more hyped due to her looks compared to the ability she has. Yes, she’s talented, but this is her level. She did a rally good job in defeat at this track/distance a fortnight back given she was wide no cover throughout and she stuck on really well in defeat behind Ability. Back to her own sex now, maps well and will be in it for a long way.
Long Shot: They look like they will go hard here, and one of those that will be closing hard late is the Tassie visitor 2 Erin’s Element (Bet Now: $9.50). Comes to the mainland after a pretty solid campaign during the Summer where she ran some quality races in some nice events back home. Two sharp trials to tune her up, and she will get back/be strong late.
Race Four (14:05) : Kane Constructions Handicap (84) 1600m:
Back Me: 3 Have Another Glass (Bet Now: $6.50) should be given another chance here. Was heavily tried when racing here a fortnight back but nothing really went right for the mare and Emily Finnegan. Got caught up in a nasty spot near the inside and had to make her run there, which probably wasn’t the spot to be. She’s better outside horses and clear air. If that eventuates, she’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: 11 Soho Ruby (Bet Now: $3.90) won three weeks back at Sabndown and it was down to a lovely ride near the speed by Steve Baster, who controlled things outside the tempo and sprinted hard when asked for the effort. Looks to map well once again and is hard fit/in form. Ticks a few boxes.
Long Shot: 6 Noela’s Choice (Bet Now: $21.00) could be the improver here at odds. This mare ran at Sandown last time out where she got back in the run and just stayed there really behind Cannyescent. Trialled on Tuesday at Avoca and went quite nicely to my eye. Third up now, so no excuses for mine.
Race Five (14:45) : GJK Facility Services Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Reldas (Bet Now: $4.60) is bursting to win another race for Robert Smerdon and he gets his chance here. He hasn’t raced since May 6 at Morphettville in the McKay where he got back off them in the run before presenting wider and savaging the line to just miss out on picking up Karacatis. Form out of that has been good, but most importantly, Reldas is fresh and at the Valley. Ideal recipe for success.
Big Danger: 8 Camdus (Bet Now: $8.00) had confident market support when racing over this track/distance two weeks back and aided by a sweet ride from Rawiller, the Darren Weir trained gelding charged to the line over the final 75m to record a dominant win. Takes on the better class sprinters now, but I think he can measure up.
Long Shot: 7 Onerous (Bet Now: $19.00) is running out of chances with me but perhaps second up back with Team Hawkes, he can improve. Resumed in the Straight Six at Flemington where he didn’t come on at all when finishing down the track behind Tashbeeh. Ran well in his lone start at the Valley, so I think include in multiples.
Race Six (15:25) : Epworth Medical Imaging Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 7 Mystified (Bet Now: $5.50) is an Adelaide visitor for Ryan Balfour who did an enormous job in defeat here two weeks back. She was near last and wide all the way, and had to come very wide on the turn, but I really liked the way she finished off her race behind Katsuro. Swap the runs and Mystified probably does the same thing as Katsuro. Happy to be with her each way.
Big Danger: 2 Revolving Door (Bet Now: $6.50) is the big watch here. Clinton McDonald trained three year old who comes back as a gelding which could well be the making of him. His jump outs leading up to this run have been quite encouraging and we know that on his best form, he is just better than these. Big market watch.
Long Shot: 5 Terindah (Bet Now: $12.00) is a hot and cold gelding for the Robbie Griffiths yard but when he brings his best, he is definitely up to these. Was close up in the Katsuro race after doing from the wide gate. Draws much better here and remains right down in the weights after the claim for Stockdale. Knockout chance.
Race Seven (16:05) : Silver Thomas Hanley Plate 2040m:
Back Me: 2 Megablast (Bet Now: $5.00) gets the nod for me here. Kiwi raider who resumed three weeks back over the Ellerslie mile on the bottomless track where he absolutely romped it in, winning by nine lengths and showing an electric turn of foot. He is a quality animal who will love the rise to 2040m.
Big Danger: 8 Coldstone (Bet Now: $5.50) is bursting to win a race down under and I don’t think he will get a better chance here. Ran over the mile here a fortnight back where Beau Mertens gave him a sweet steer just off the speed, and loomed large, but he was no match late for Magic Consol. Up to 2000m is the query, but Mick Kent wouldn’t unless he was confident the horse could handle it.
Long Shot: 12 Mr Journeyman (Bet Now: $31.00) comes back to Victoria after a Country Cups raid in SA. Bolted up in the Millicent Cup at Penola before going to the Mount Gambier Cup where he was far from disgraced behind Survived, who was ultra competitive in the Warrnambool Cup start prior, so that form reads well for this.
Race Eight (16:43) : William Hill Travis Harrison Cup 1600m:
Back Me: 4 Rhythm To Spare (Bet Now: $5.500) on top for me in a nightmare race to sort out with confidence. He was a dominant winner two back at Caulfield before going to the RA Lee at Morphettville where he ran a credible third to Burning Front. That form reads quite well for this, he draws well and is nicely in at the weights.
Big Danger: 14 Data Point (Bet Now: $5.50) isn’t the most reliable horse going around but he is showing some consistency early on this time in for the Mick Kent yard. Resumed with a dominant win at Pakenham before going to Sandown where he just got too far back but closed off well when second to Cannyescent. Looks ready for the mile now and third up, he should be at peak fitness.
Long Shot: 1 Amovatio (Bet Now: $12.00) hasn’t won for a while but he does look a knockout chance here at odds. Closed off well when resuming in the Scone Cup behind Duca Valetinois before going to the Lord Mayors Cup where he didn’t look comfortable on the surface and struggled to let down behind Col ‘N’ Lil. As I said, been a while since he has won, but we know he’s very good when right.
Race Nine (17:15) : Embassy Print Solutions Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 11 Fire Agate (Bet Now: $7.50) is a talented gelding for the Greg Eurell who had confident support when resuming on his home track at Cranbourne under the lights and aided by a lovely steer just near the speed, he proved too good. Building up a nice little record and should take some holding out against this lot.
Big Danger: 4 Leodoro (Bet Now: $3.40) drops a bit in depth after racing at this track/distance two weeks back. Got held up when settling in the second half of the field but I really liked the way he closed off when a close up third to Camdus. That race looked to carry more depth than what he faces here so he rates highly.
Long Shot: 7 Septamore (Bet Now: $8.00) was an alarming drifter in the market when racing over 1250m on the Parks track at Morphettville a fortnight ago and the market got it spot on as he led at a decent clip and faded out of it late when third to Harbour Grey. Was only second up there, so he should have improvement left. Definite threat.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Megablast
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 11 Fire Agate
VALUE: Race One Number 11 Truly Discreet
Have A Tip? – Post Your Tip in the Comment Section Below
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
Leg Two: 2
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 14
Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 11
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