17/5/2014 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield

Racing will return to Caulfield on Saturday for Victoria’s feature race meeting with an eight race card all of which look to provide punters plenty of value. Our best bet of the day is at massive value and it will pay to get on early before he shortens in the market.

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Race One (12:35) : A L H Group Plate 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Miss Mayflower (Best Odds: $11.00) has only had the one start which was on a heavy track but she showed a lot of quality in that run when running an unlucky third after being inconvenienced at the start of the race. That races form has held up and i think she would improve here which would put her right in the finish on Saturday especially with the drop in weight. She is bred to be better on top of the ground which she will get and i think at the big odds she is the horse to beat.
Big Danger: Mossbeat (Best Odds: $4.60) was very good when winning at Warrnambool last start and her start before that showed she isn’t just a wet tracker when running a close second at Caulfield. She has dropped it weight from her last start and the barrier wont be an issue as her pattern of racing is to go back and run on. She can definitely make it back to back wins on Saturday.
Roughie: Crimson Cape (Best Odds: $11.00) is out of the Smerdon yard which always has to be respected in these two year old races especially when the horse is having it’s first start in the city. His trial was fair but was on a slow track so i am happy to overlook that as a form factor. Currently at double figure odds and must be kept safe.

$250 Miss Mayflower Free Bet

Race Two (13:10) : The Chase Hotel Hcp 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: Griante (Best Odds: $3.50) won well last start after sitting on the pace in what was a pretty quickly run race so it was very impressive that she attacked the line so well in the concluding stages of the race. Most of the fancied runners in this race come through that form line and i doubt the increase in weight will see any of them turn the tables on her on Saturday.
Big Danger: Sometyne (Best Odds: $17.00) is a lightly raced filly who did a lot wrong last start but still won albeit in much weaker company. She will improve from the run and she looks a type that will also improve with the step up in distance. She drops 4kg from last start at Geelong and she has drawn a barrier to get a good run throughout. She looks to be the main danger to our on top selection.
Roughie: Madam Gangster (Best Odds: $8.00) has been good at her last two starts where she finished fourth on those occasions. Last start i think she was ridden upside down and if she is able to settle back in the field on Saturday i think she will run a much better race and will be right in the finish.

$250 Griante Free Bet

Race Three (13:45) : Catanach’s Jewellers Hcp 1600m Form Guide

Back Me: Cornell (Best Odds: $6.50) is drawn perfectly to win this race, his running pattern will allow him to sit off what looks to be a hot speed and get an easy run throughout and show his good turn of foot in the last 200m. The top four or five look very even on paper but with the better run and the ability to sit a little further back will get him over the line on Saturday.
Big Danger: Onpicalo (Best Odds: $2.60) was a dominate winner at Caulfield last start and despite not being as good on top of the ground he still has a lot of quality about him. He gets in the weights really well with the claim of Jye Mcneil and he looks the one to beat and betting suggests that.
Roughie: Tuscan Fire (Best Odds: $15.00) can pop up with a big run every preparation which we saw at Flemington first up last time when winning at triple figures. This race looks to have a ton of speed in it so i think those from the back can figure prominently in the finish. He will go back in the run and if the likely leaders serve it up to each other he could finish over the top of them at very good odds.

$250 Cornell Free Bet

Race Four (14:22) : P F D Food Services Hcp 1100m Form Guide

Back Me: Just A Girl (Best Odds: $7.50) was very good first up this preparation before failing when dropping in distance second up. Back out to the 1200m will definitely see her improve which she has a good record over. On a few runs she put in last preparation she will be very hard to beat on Saturday. She can be backed each way which is why she has been put on top over the favourite.
Big Danger: Vain Queen (Best Odds: $2.90) wen’t into her first start this preparation unbeaten from her first four career starts but was subsequently beaten as an odds on favourite although the stewards report had ‘thumps’ for the poor performance. She is again a short priced favourite and she is deserives it if she is right but you are risking another issue wont arise on Saturday. Keeping her very safe but prefer to go with an each way bet in the race.
Roughie: Legcut b(Best Odds: $12.00) eat a good field last start and she meets what looks to be a similar class of runners on Saturday. She goes up a bit in weights but that shouldn’t trouble her and if she gets a tad of luck from the wide barrier i think she can make it back to back wins.

$250 Just A Girl Free Bet

Race Five (14:57) : Taralye-deaf Kids Talking Hcp 1200m Form Guide

Back Me: Moparee (Best Odds: $8.50) is yet to put in a bad run from her nine career starts. Her three runs this preparation have been good and looking at those races she is ready to win and she find a very winnable race on Saturday. She drops in weight from last start and with the claim she is very well weighted in the race and from barrier 1 Katelyn Mallyon will be able to sit on the speed if it is slow or drift back if they are going quick up front, either way she will be very hard to beat.
Big Danger: Lucky Symbol (Best Odds: $8.50) has raced competitively in two good form races in his last two starts and he must be included back in this grade. Happy to forgive his run in the Sportingbet Stakes as it was on a rain affected track so back on a firmer surface i think he will be hard to beat.
Roughie: Aragonese (Best Odds: $26.00) has displayed a very good turn of foot on occasion and if they go hard up front which they could on Saturday i think he will be the horse from the back they will need to watch out for. Two starts ago he won very well, this is harder but at the odds i will be including him.

$250 Moparee Free Bet

Race Six (15:32) : Taralye Listen Learn Speak Hcp 1000m Form Guide

Back Me: Don’t Get Excited (Best Odds: $8.00) didn’t handle the deteriating track at Warrnambool last start so i have put a line through that run. Before that he was very competitive and slightly unlucky in very good races. His record at the distance is very good having placed four times from six starts over the distance and he is weighted and drawn well on Saturday which will definitely increase his chances.
Big Danger: Lord Of The Sky (Best Odds: $2.60) is much like Vain Queen looks to be the horse to beat in the race if she is at her best but there is a query if that is the case after having Respiratory issues at her last start. She is weighted well, drawn well and has a ton of upside and must be kept safe.
Roughie: Danger Close (Best Odds: $11.00) jumped away slowly but was still too good in the end and caused an upset beating the odds on favourite Lord Of The Sky in the race who had an excuse. If he can get away well on Saturday and gets a bit of luck from the wide barrier i think he can again cause an upset and he looks to be at very good odds.

$250 Don’t Get Excited Free Bet

Race Seven (16:10) : A L H Group Hcp 2000m Form Guide

Back Me: I Am Titanium (Best Odds: $8.50) doesn’t have the best winning strike rate having only won once from nine starts but on paper he has the best form in the race. He cost himself a chance in the Adelaide Guineas at the start and he was unlucky not to have gone very close at his four runs before that. If he can put it together and get a bit of luck on Saturday i think we will see him win and win well.
Big Danger: Tear Gas (Best Odds: $5.00) would be a very good galloper if she can learn to settle as she tends to over race over these longer distance races which costs her the win. If she can settle well throughout i think she is a very talented filly who could be the horse to progress to better races.
Roughie: Word Of Mouth (Best Odds: $16.00) is coming off back to back wins which is always a good sign when looking at these distance races with horses untried or haven’t won over the trip as you know he can run it out and has won doing so. He has drawn well and will get an easy run throughout and if a few of the other runners in the race who may have a bit more talent don’t handle the trip or do things wrong i think he can capitalise on it.

$250 I Am Titanium Free Bet

Race Eight (16:45) : Carlton Draught Hcp (90) 2000m Form Guide

Back Me: Freshwater Storm (Best Odds: $11.00) was my best bet of the day a fortnight ago but i don’t think he got through the ground on that occasion. Back on top of the ground he will be much better and im surprised at how good the odds available for him are in what looks to be an easier race.
Big Danger: St Jean (Best Odds: $4.20) was disappointing in the Warrnambool Cup but that could be put down to the heavy track on the day. Before that he was very good when running second in a good form race at Caulfield where he was heavily backed to win. He looks the horse who can improve the most in the race and he should be right in the finish if he has come through the Warrnambool Cup run alright.
Roughie: Bec Said No Credit (Best Odds: $11.00) didn’t handle the slow track last time out so you can put a line through that run. Before that she was very competitive in good race at Caulfield and on that run she has to be included especially at the double figure odds.

$250 Freshwater Storm Free Bet

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Best Bet: Race Eight Number 3 Freshwater Storm    (Best Odds: $11.00)

Next Best: Race Five Number 6 Moparee    (Best Odds: $8.50)

Best Roughie: Race Seven Number 2 I Am Titanium    (Best Odds: $8.50)