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Eight races will be run and won at Belmont this Saturday where it is Strickland Stakes Day. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

 

Race 1. (14:33) Amelia Park Beef Plate 1000m

Back Me

8 Mizlecki (Bet Now: $1.85) is a smart filly for the Fred Kersley yard who is the clear horse to beat here. She is four weeks between runs since racing over this track/distance where she got back off the pace and was slightly held up but she was good late behind Illustrious Tycoon. Break between runs should do her the world of good and she rates highly.

Danger

5 Captain Stirling (Bet Now: $3.90) is a son of Written Tycoon on debut for the Lindsey Smith yard. This chestnut has had three trials to prepare for his debut, the latest resulting in a six length trial win at Lark Hill last week. Just has to overcome the sticky draw to look a threat and indeed the winner.

Long Shot

2 Kentoo (Bet Now: $35) is on the quick back up for the Stephen Miller camp after racing last Saturday where he was in the market and seemed to have a nice sit just off the pace but he didn’t come on at all and was horrible behind. Senior jock goes on now and draws out wide to be clear, which might suit this youngster.

Race 2. (15:13) Sign On Handicap 1000m

Back Me

1 Belter (Bet Now: $3.30) looks the one for me here. Sean Casey trained three year old who resumed at this track/distance a fortnight back and I thought his effort was huge. Sat wide no cover throughout and even though it was only 1000m, he was fresh and he did look to have a belly on him in the yard. Draws much better here and has the upside.

Danger

5 High Conviction (Bet Now: $2.15) is a quality filly that resumes for the Simon Miller camp. She hasn’t raced for over 12 months since putting together two brilliant wins here, including a win over Dainty Tess. Recent trial was great to the eye and I really like the fact that Pike is booked to steer.

Long Shot

7 Patapus (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Patronize filly resuming for Holly Locke at Bunbury. This girl hasn’t raced since mid February when racing in a Quality race for the Fillies and Mares and she ran a beauty when a narrow second to Celebrity Dream. Looked sharp in a recent trial behind Bold Success and appears ready to go.

Race 3. (15:53) David Grays Aglink Handicap (66+) 1300

Back Me

5 Galaxy Star (Bet Now: $1.50) is a multi anchor. He is a high quality galloper that resumes for the Williams camp after a very good opening campaign, where he showed signs that he could measure up to blacktype company comfortably. Trial win was outstanding and really, only bad luck beats him.

Danger

1 Grey Enigma (Bet Now: $12.00) is an improver here for sure. He ran over 1400m here a fortnight back and just forget he went around given he was wide no cover on speed for the entire trip. Draws much better here and I think back 100m in trip will aid his cause. Not sure he can win, but one for exotics.

Long Shot

9 Royal Missile (Bet Now: $5.00) is on the quick back up for the Simon Miller camp after racing over 1200m here last Saturday where she got a mile back out of her ground but savaged the line when clear to just miss out on picking up Karlakee Miss. Has performed up to the mile, so 1300m suits and she is right down in the weights.

Race 4. (16:28) Old Mates Sports Bar & Eatery Handicap (72+) 1400m

Back Me

1 Profit Street (Bet Now: $2.35) gets the nod here in a tough race. He has been really good this time in the former star juvenile. Ran over 1200m here three weeks ago and I liked the way he finished when getting into the clear when running third to Majinika. From the good draw up to 1400m, I can see him settling close, and if that does happen, he’s the one to beat.

Danger

7 Abbasso (Bet Now: $13.00) was a bit unwanted in betting when resuming over 1200m here two weeks ago but I liked the way he toughed it out and he wasn’t really beaten far when a close up third to Lockroy. He is a winner second up and clearly the rise to 1400m will be ideal. Better at the mile, but still a threat here.

Long Shot

8 Mosseratti (Bet Now: $14.00) was a real find in the staying ranks during the Spring/Summer, and while he only won the one race, he was very good each time he stepped out. That is his go these days, so 1400m is short of his best, but look for him to be warming to the task late and finding the line.

Race 5. (17:04) Events At Ascot Handicap (1MW) 1600m

Back Me

8 Nelson’s Flight (Bet Now: $4.20) on top. Michael Morton trained galloper who ran over this track/distance last Wednesday where he was given a nice sit just off the speed and loomed to win but just didn’t quite finish it off when second to Come On Board. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise and Pike remains on.

Danger

3 Cruachan (Bet Now: $3.30) produced a brilliant first up performance at Pinjarra over 1400m a tick over two weeks back, having the box seat sit throughout before getting the flat and dashing right away for a dominant win. First up for 320 days there, so the fitness levels are unknown, but I can’t ignore the fresh return.

Long Shot

6 Discoville (Bet Now: $26.00) was 21 days between runs when racing over 1760m at Kalgoorlie last time out and I think just forget he went around. Tempo was slow and he was back near last, so he really had no hope. Looking for further, but he gets the claim for Kersley and does have a really good record at Belmont.

Race 6. (17:40) Crown Towers Handicap (1MW) 1600m

Back Me

12 Rare Coin (Bet Now: $4.20) looks a good bet for me here. Brett Pop trained galloper who ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and I thought his effort was very good, closing off hard from the back to run a close up second to Roughead. Can sit closer from the better draw here and Pike steers.

Danger

8 Indi Pacific (Bet Now: $7.00) was a real eye catcher first up at Northam before racing over the mile here two weeks ago and if you backed her, it was just a nightmare. Got back and looked to travel well but just couldn’t get a clear crack at them and pretty much went to the line under a hold. With better luck here, she can bounce back hard.

Long Shot

2 Jaspara (Bet Now: $9.50) comes through the same race as Indi Pacific, won by Jetoomy, and his effort was pretty good. Had a nice sit just off the pace and loomed large but just couldn’t quite finish it off. Might be better when ridden cold, which is what should happen from the draw. Knockout chance.

Race 7. (18:15) Strickland Stakes 2000m

Back Me

1 Scales Of Justice (Bet Now: $1.35) kicks off a possible Cox Plate mission. But to go down that path, he has to put this field away and I’m confident he will. Led at a crawl in the Hyperion and it was an absolute procession as he walked in. Looks to dominate things from the front again and 2000m, I don’t think, will be an issue.

Danger

5 Zarantz (Bet Now: $7.50) should run second. That’s what he did in the Hyperion and I thought his effort was outstanding given that was his first run since the WA Cup at the two miles. He is proven at 2000m+ and he does have more upside. If there is an upset, this is the horse to do it if Scales Of Justice is off his game.

Long Shot

2 Ihtsahymn (Bet Now: $41) is a proven Group l performer who is now getting to a more ideal trip. He was specked at the place odds in the Hyperion but he just didn’t have the turn of foot to go with them and was well beaten by Scales Of Justice. Won’t be winning here, but he’s getting fitter now and did win this race last year. Good place chance.

Race 8. (18:50) Get The Tabtouch Handicap (1MW) 1200m

Back Me

6 Bold Success (Bet Now: $2.60)  clearly on top for me here. Team Williams trained galloper that showed great promise in his first campaign despite only winning a Bunbury maiden. He’s definitely up to these and better, and judging on his very sharp trial win recently, he looks ready to go and Pike steers.

Danger

13 Show Honey (Bet Now: $3.20) is a stablemate of Bold Success who was so impressive in her first two runs this campaign before racing here a fortnight back over the mile where she was a real flop behind Roughead but I think we now know she isn’t a miler. Sprinting is her go, so a big watch here.

Long Shot

10 Humanity (Bet Now: $14.00) comes back to the 1200m after racing over the mile here a fortnight back where he did a bit of work from the wide gate to sit on speed and faded late behind Jetoomy. He is a real enigma but we know that on his best form and in the right mood, he can win this.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Scales Of Justice

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 5 Galaxy Star

VALUE: Race Six Number 12 Rare Coin

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 8

Leg Two: 1, 2, 8, 9, 11, 12, 15

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 6, 13

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