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The Brisbane Carnival warms up this Saturday at Eagle Farm where it is Daybreak Lover Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out half a metre for the entire circuit.

Daybreak Lover Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Daybreak Lover Stakes

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Race 1. (11:38) Stradbroke Season On Sale Hcp 1000m

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Back Me

Like 1 Debussy (Bet Now: $1.80) in the opener. On debut for the Edmonds camp with Robbie Fradd to ride. Has won both trials in readiness for start one and has looked the part each time he has stepped out. Gets run of the race from the inside gate and in a tricky race, he looks the safe way to go.

Danger

2 Grey Defence (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Les Ross trained juvenile that comes to town in winning form having won fresh at the Sunny Coast. Resumed without a trial and was soft late in betting, but he found when required and was too good, just, but there was a good gap to third. Hard to beat for an in form hoop in Bobby El-Issa.

Long Shot

7 Mishani Trouble (Bet Now: $18.00) is a son of Mahisara for Les Ross that resumes. This youngster hasn’t raced since November 6 when getting the job done in a small field at Rockhampton, but he produced a big finale. Resumes without a trial, but I suspect Jimmy Orman, who does a fair bit of riding for the stable, would have had first choice.

Race 2. (12:13) Sky Racing Hcp 1000m

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Back Me

I’ll take a punt with first starter 8 Single Dizire (Bet Now: $8.00). She debuts for the Sears camp off the back of one trial, which came over 650m at Toowoomba. Thought she moved quite well to get the job done, albeit time was nothing flash, but how often do we see these Toowoomba youngsters measure up in town on debut.

Danger

1 Stellar Magic (Bet Now: $2.10) should be suited back to 1000m for the O’Dea/Hoysted camp. Ran over 1110m at Doomben three weeks ago and looked home on the turn, but just couldn’t quite finish it off and was nabbed late. Back to 1000m is a tick for her, and perhaps with a bunny to chase she’ll be more effective.

Long Shot

4 Invincible Tears (Bet Now: $6.00) is a daughter of Maurice for the Heinrich camp that resumes. Had a two run Spring prep to start her career, with the second start seeing her place at the Sunny Coast behind You’ll Be Mist. Liked her recent trial at the Gold Coast and should get a lovely run from the draw.

Race 3. (12:48) Gallopers Sports Club (bm85) 1600m

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Back Me

4 Guise (Bet Now: $3.30) on top. Chris Waller trained mare that is three weeks between runs since finishing best over the mile at Doomben. Looked in a bit of trouble for a few strides, but I liked the way she knuckled down when required and surged hard late to win. Harder here, but she’s in form and the bigger track I think will suit.

Danger

3 Word For Word (Bet Now: $6.50) has been up a little while but is holding her form nicely. Ran at this track/distance two weeks ago where she was near the speed and a bit keen in the run. That took away something from her finale IMO but overall, she had her chance. If she can relax better in the run, she’ll be far more effective.

Long Shot

5 Jay Jay D’Ar (Bet Now: $4.80) is untried at the mile but is racing as if she will be looking for it. Ran over 1400m here two weeks back and worked to the line pretty well without showing great change up speed when a close up fifth to In His Stride. Has the ability to take out a race like this so watch the market.

Race 4. (13:23) Canadian Club (bm78) 2200m

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Back Me

5 Kimpembe (Bet Now: $12.00) is flying for the Waller and given these races see them take turns in winning, I think it’s his time to shine. Like several engaged here, he ran at this track/distance two weeks ago. Just got left a bit flat footed but picked up and was really good late behind Aberlady in a blanket finish. Got upside, better for the run…he’ll do me.

Danger

2 Joymaker (Bet Now: $4.80) has been up a little while but is holding her form really well for Kelly Schweida. Just crept up in the weights two weeks ago and I reckon that was the difference between winning and losing when a close up third to Aberlady. Hasn’t got upside but only has to hold her form.

Long Shot

1 Stardome (Bet Now: $5.00) is bursting to win one. Thought it would come two weeks back here. I was on his back and I thought he got there, but the photo didn’t go his way in a close finish. Was that an opportunity missed? Potentially, but Waller and these kind of staying races go hand in hand.

Race 5. (13:58) Daybreak Lover 1400m

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Back Me

Forgive a good horse for one poor run and I’ll be doing that with 6 Gotta Kiss (Bet Now: $3.40). Market loved her when she resumed here two weeks ago and seemed to be going sweetly but when Thornton asked for the effort, she went backwards and finished tailed off last. Had to be a reason and there was, with the filly reported to be coughing post race. Brings her best and I think she wins.

Danger

1 Apache Chase (Bet Now: $3.40) can be an improver back up in trip. Go back four runs, he was an impressive winner of the Vo Rogue at this track/distance. He ran over 1200m here two weeks ago when on speed with the big weight and he battled on okay when fourth to impressive winner Tycoon Evie. Can run a much improved race at odds.

Long Shot

4 Wolf Moon (Bet Now: $5.00) will likely lead this field up and give plenty of cheek from the front. That was the case several weeks ago when leading throughout to win at the Sunny Coast, admittedly in a much weaker race than what he faces here, but he has the right racing pattern and will be out of trouble.

Race 6. (14:37) Racecourse Village Plate (c3) 1200m

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Back Me

5 Golly Hutt (Bet Now: $9.50) is a over a year between wins, but I think he has the right form around him to give this a shake. He has the Ventura Ocean/Wren’s Day form from his past couple, which does read well. The latest run was six weeks ago, so watch the market I’d suggest and if he’s hard in the market, and popular, jump on with confidence.

Danger

10 Euro Belle (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Gillian Heinrich trained mare that is better suited in a race like this. Somewhat thrown in the deep end a few weeks ago in the Military Rose and I thought she overachieved in a good effort when third to Jadentom. Better suited here I feel and should prove hard to beat.

Long Shot

4 Dr Why Not (Bet Now: $4.40) is putting together a tidy little record. Won the opening two runs of the prep in good style before heading to Doomben where he tried hard but bumped into a handy animal in Weona Smartone. Does no work from the soft draw and does get in well after the claim.

Race 7. (15:17) Tab Venue Mode Hcp 1400m

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Back Me

Pretty keen here on 5 Junction (Bet Now: $2.70). I reckon he’s ready to win and the pattern is there to suggest he will fire fourth up from a break. Looked the winner when racing here two weeks ago. Just couldn’t quite finish it off and was nabbed late by In His Stride. Fitter, he’ll press forward and take a power of beating.

Danger

6 Epic Girl (Bet Now: $3.00) is a key threat and I could have something on her as well. She ran last Saturday at Doomben and she tried hard, as she always does. Just wanted to lay in it seemed when fourth to Racecourse Road. She has a very good seven day back up record. Just has to tick the 1400m box.

Long Shot

3 Fighting Teo (Bet Now: $35.00) is a son of Teofilo that resumes for Kevin Kemp. This stayer hasn’t raced since the Toowoomba Cup back in September when on speed and tiring late behind Alward. Resumes without a public trial and normally does need a run or two, but looks to be good speed here, so if he’s forward enough, he could run a positive race at odds.

Race 8. (16:02) Ascot Hcp 1000m

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Back Me

2 Master Jamie (Bet Now: $4.40) has a real love affair with Eagle Farm and I think he can resume with a Stakes win. Hasn’t raced since December when winning the Gateway and securing his spot in the Stradbroke. So while he has eyes on the big prize, he can sprint well fresh, loves the 1000m and his recent trial win was very sharp.

Danger

5 Kylease (Bet Now: $3.70) will look the winner for the most part…the last bit will just be the test with her. That was evident at this track/distance two weeks ago. Looked the winner when she sprinted clear, but got the staggers the last 50m and was nabbed late by Le Palmier. Heart in your mouth stuff late if you’re on.

Long Shot

6 Pizonie (Bet Now: $11.00) deserves another chance. He resumed in the Le Palmier race and on face value, he was pretty plain, but was found post race to be short striding in both front legs. Market loved him late, so he was expected to run well. Forgive him for that and he is at decent odds to find out.

Race 9. (16:38) Brc Carnival Membership-rs0mw 1400m

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Back Me

These 0MW races are always fraught with danger. But, I do think that Darren Hyde has 2 Westlink (Bet Now: $10.00) going very well. He was good late fresh here behind Kalik before going to Doomben on a bottomless track and made up ground without threatening when third to Shijin, a noted swimmer. Back on firmer footing, up to 1400m and bolted in third up last prep.

Danger

13 The Dark (Bet Now: $4.80) is nearing a win for Scott Morrisey. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he was back near last in the small field. Did make up ground late but was never beating impressive winner Alpendurada. Form around him does read well. Just needs to put a win on the board and he gets a great chance here.

Long Shot

12 Sally Pops (Bet Now: $9.00) is an interesting runner. Whether they are trying to get her to be a potential Oaks filly, or aim at blacktype a tier down below, not sure. She is just over two weeks between runs and comes back to 1400m from 2100m where she was on speed at Gosford and tired late. Gets right down in the weights after the claim and could give a sight in front.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 5 Junction

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 6 Gotta Kiss

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 5 Kimpembe

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 7, 10, 18

Leg Two: 5, 6

Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6

Leg Four: 2, 11, 12, 13

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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