17/11/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Doomben, Keith Noud Quality Handicap day

A strong nine race card has been set down for Doomben this Saturday where it is Keith Noud Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out 4.5 metres for the entire for the entire circuit.

2 Vassal (Bet Now: $7.50) for me. These stayers take their turn at winning these races and I think Vassal gets his chance. He ran third to stablemate Estikhraaj here a fortnight ago and for mine he should have finished a touch closer, getting slightly held up near the rail but had his chance all the same. Hoping luck goes his way.

4 Estikhraaj (Bet Now: $2.00) got the win on the board over 2000m here two weeks back and put it down to a 12/10 steer from Larry Cassidy, who saved every inch of the Doomben track railed up hard to take the lead and the horse dashed clear late to win impressively. Can he repeat the dose? Perhaps, but he’s hard to trust.

1 Morendi (Bet Now: $13.00) is the big improver. He finished down the track behind Estikhraaj but forget he went around. Ridden upside down and really had no chance the way he was ridden. He’s best steered when off the pace and saved for the final 600m. He can certainly win this if he brings anything near his best form.

5 The Wild One (Bet Now: $4.80) is a son of I Am Invincible on debut for Steve O’Dea and Proven Thoroughbreds. This combo rarely get it wrong when it comes to buying horses. Yet to be seen in public trials, so hard to get a read on him. Market and the yard will tell you what sort of ability he has against this lot.

1 Embattled (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Stuart Kendrick trained colt who debuted at this track/distance two weeks ago where he was near the speed all the way and tried hard but was no match for the impressive winner Pocket Pistol. Got the race experience under the belt and draws to get a lovely run near the speed.

3 Neptune’s Spear (Bet Now: $4.00) is a son of Super Easy on debut for the Liam Birchley stable. This bloke hasn’t been seen at the trials but we know that with this stable, they can produce a decent juvenile winner without being sighted, so again, the market and yard will be the best guide to see how he’s going for his first start.

Gee if 2 Plumaro (Bet Now: $5.00) can somehow sit closer in the run, she’ll be spanking this field. She’s better than these but just has this awful pattern of showing zero early and mid race speed and leaves her run far too late. Loved the way she attacked the line at this track/distance two weeks ago when fourth to Light Up The Room. If she can sit somewhat closer, she’ll win.

1 Light Up The Room (Bet Now: $2.10) is a daughter of So You Think for Tony Gollan who is 2/2 to start this prep. Admittedly she’s had the run of the race in both runs but she still had to get the job done and she got it done impressively. Hard to knock a winner, and she is indeed that. How much upside is left though?

6 Barefoot (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Tony Sears trained filly who resumed over 1000m at the Ipswich midweeks where she was somewhat unwanted in betting and despite seemingly not handling the track, she absolutely charged to the line and got the win narrowly but there was a bit to like about her. Up to 1350m looks ideal and can add value to exotics.

One last chance to 14 Omineca (Bet Now: $4.60). Gee he’s been disappointing this time in for Chris Waller. Showed really good promise as a three year old but just hasn’t gone on with it. There was good market support at odds when he ran on Cup Day at Randwick and after looking to travel into the race, he just found nothing late. Perhaps the trip away could spark him into action.

11 Mymming (Bet Now: $3.40) will be popular and rightfully so. Ran over the 2000m here a fortnight back and looked all over a winner when Murphy got the gap and the mare dashed, but So You Wish had momentum out wide and got her on the peg. Gate one, back to the mile, D Browne on…plenty of ticks.

8 Petain (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Kris Lees trained son of Commands who comes to town off the back of a win at Toowoomba over the mile a fortnight back and the win was nothing flash. He was held up, but did get clear and probably had a right to win a bit more convincingly. Perhaps getting clear air earlier here will help his cause.

11 Jami Lady (Bet Now: $4.50) is four weeks between runs for Steve O’Dea since racing over 1200m here where she was heavily backed and on the turn, it looked no betting as she loomed up but as soon as you had that thought, the wheels were spinning and she didn’t finish off at all behind Light Up The Room. Shifted a plate in the run, so that could well be an excuse. Like her back to 1050m and the two wins prior were outstanding.

Really keen to see 2 Zoustyle (Bet Now: $1.55) resume for Tony Gollan. This gelding is 2/2 to date, with both starts coming in the Winter where he sat on speed each start and bolted in, running time in both wins and the form out of those events has been quite strong. Resumes without a trial, but clearly looks above average.

5 Tullio (Bet Now: $19.00) is a Tony Gollan trained gelding who resumed at this track/distance on Cup Day where he was a drifter in the market but despite having no real friends in betting, he ran a beauty. Loomed large when presented but just lacked the fitness in the end when a narrow third to Desert Digby. Should improve and is a knockout chance at odds.

18 Don’t You Know Him (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Tony Gollan trained gelding who trialled up enormous prior to resuming in an Ipswich maiden where he did work to find the front and from that point on, it was painless. He bolted up, ran time and did it despite losing a plate. If he runs up to near that, he’ll take some beating.

10 Adoradancer (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Barry Lockwood trained mare who resumed in the Desert Man from two weeks ago here where she got back and was never really in the hunt in a somewhat disappointing effort but the market didn’t like her and she ran accordingly. Much better second up record and she can bounce back.

5 Muddy Rope (Bet Now: $7.00) looks to be getting somewhere near his best form for the Chris Anderson team. Ran over the 1050m here on Cup Day where he did work in the run from the draw but despite that loomed large to win, only to be bloused on the line by Takes Time. Better gate, senior jock on, he gets his chance.

2 Oink (Bet Now: $5.50) is a son of Sebring resuming for the Kelly Schweida team. The stable is flying at the moment. Can they get this bloke to return a winner? He hasn’t won for a little while but has been around the mark for the most part. Interesting he resumes without a trial, but he’s certainly got the quality to win at his best.

1 Tawfiq Boy (Bet Now: $3.80) has been up a little while for the Kris Lees team but gee he’s racing well. Owner Jamie Lovett told me he had doubts on the horse at 1350m prior to racing here two weeks ago but he finished best under hard riding from Jeff Lloyd. He can continue his good form against this lot.

14 Final Zero (Bet Now: $19.00) has been excellent in both runs back from a spell for Michael Lakey, both starts being at Ipswich at 1200m. Last time she was on speed, probably not the A1 spot for her, but despite that she stuck on well in defeat I thought when third to Conquering Lass. Soft draw, weight relief, she can be a knockout chance at odds.

If 10 Victorem (Bet Now: $3.40) can handle the Doomben track and gets clear air, he’ll win. He’s a high class animal for Jenny Graham who hasn’t raced since resuming in the Kosciuszko, where he looked to be bolting in the run but as soon as Ben Looker let him down, the wheels were spinning on the bog. Back on firmer footing, really keen.

3 Tyzone (Bet Now: $4.50) is a quality son of Written Tycoon resuming for Toby Edmonds. He is being targeted at the Summer Series and looks to have come back in brilliant order if the trials are any guide, really catching the eye on a couple of occasions. He’s a bomb when produced fresh and will likely be out of trouble on speed.

13 Taillevent (Bet Now: $26.00) is the hard fit/in form horse who could provide some value to exotics. He ran over 1200m at Toowoomba a couple of Wednesdays back where he kept finding under riding and in the end just missed out on picking up Bold Chance. Not sure he can beat these, but he’s a must for multiples.

I think 11 Savwell (Bet Now: $4.20) is a great bet here. David Vandyke trains this gelding, who resumed over 1350m here a fortnight ago and despite never really looking a winning threat, he worked home strongly to run fifth to Tawfiq Boy. Outstanding record at the mile, second up, enormous upside…very likeable.

12 Hang (Bet Now: $10.00) should just about be ready to peak. He’s fourth up for Michael Nolan who ran on his home track at Toowoomba last time where I thought Jim Byrne gave the gelding every chance but another local, Givus A Cuddle, proved too good. He was a few weeks between runs so there should be room to improve.

Great to see 4 Capital Gain (Bet Now: $15.00) back at the races. 2017 JJ Atkins winner who to be fair has done sweet FA since that win, but to be fair, he has contested some high class races since. Easiest race he has contested since his two year old days, and though he resumes without a trial, 1630m tells me he’s forward enough.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 Plumaro

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 10 Victorem

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 2 Vassal

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5, 8, 10, 18

Leg Two: 1, 2, 8, 14

Leg Three: 3, 10

Leg Four: 1, 4, 8, 11, 12

$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful

Bookmaker	Why Bet	Sign Up	Full Review
	Back Yourself with Ladbrokes!	Join	Review
	Back a Winner with Neds!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Palmerbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Dabble and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to MyBet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review