The Sydney Autumn Carnival wraps up this Saturday with a Group l double header on a nine race program at Randwick. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out nine metres from the 1600m-Winning Post; Out five metres for the remainder.
Race One (12:05) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1200m:
Back Me: 12 Dylan’s Destiny (Best Odds: $17.00) resumed at Nowra where he sat on speed and kicked on strongly for a narrow but determined and impressive win. He will eat up the track/distance here and stable has been very successful in these Highway races.
Big Danger: 7 Touch Sensitive (Best Odds: $6.00) comes here off the back of an impressive last start win at Beaumont-Newcastle, aided by a brilliant steer from Robert Thompson. Stable knows when to bring them to town, so expect her to be hard to hold out.
Roughie: 1 Strangerinparadise (Best Odds: $10.00) is a talented mare from Dubbo who comes here off a last start seventh in the Easter Sprint at Muswellbrook, where the form has held up through Danish Twist and the Provincial Championship Final. This mare rises big time in weight, but the plus is that Bowman steers from a soft gate.
Race Two (12:40) : E-Group Security Sprint (83) 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Mohave (Best Odds: $8.00) resumes here for Godolphin after just a one run prep, which resulted in a close up third to Got The Goss. Trials have been encouraging, and he will be hoping the track firms up. If it does, then he is the clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: 12 Lady Jivago (Best Odds: $8.50) takes on the older horses but I thought her effort first up in the P J Bell was full of merit behind Tempt Me Not. Could have taken the easy path and run in the Carr but they go here and I think she’s a great hope.
Roughie: 6 Ryker (Best Odds: $17.00) can be a bit of a tease, but there is no denying his talent. He resumes here for Team Snowden off the back of a couple of trials, so he looks ready to go fresh. Check and see if there is a market push.
Race Three (13:15) : TJS Frank Packer Plate 2000m:
Back Me: 1 Old North (Best Odds: $2.10) was given a 12/10 from Macca to win the Tulloch Stakes (2000m) three weeks back, hugging the rail and dashing through to win. Dodged the Derby to be saved for this and this really does look a lovely race.
Big Danger: 9 Asinara (Best Odds: $4.20) drops a bit in grade after contesting the Vinery Stud (2000m) where she got a long way back in the run but worked home with purpose late behind Single Gaze. Just a little query on her running a strong 2000m, but I’m happy to include her because she might have the brilliance to overcome it.
Roughie: 7 Hierarchal (Best Odds: $34.00) ran in the Carbine Club (1600m) a couple of weeks back and stuck to the task very well behind He’s Our Rokkii. Definitely looking for 2000m now and is a definite knockout chance IMO.
Race Four (13:50) : Kari J H B Carr Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Pearls (Best Odds: $3.00) was outclassed in the Coolmore (1500m) behind Peeping before coming back to 1200m where she ran a closing second to Tempt Me Not in the P J Bell a fortnight back. She was an impressive winner of the Tea Rose at this track/distance this Spring and this looks a very suitable target for this Godolphin filly.
Big Danger: 5 Denmagic (Best Odds: $5.00) also comes through the P J Bell where she just got too far back in the run when running ninth, beaten five lengths. The start prior in the Darby Munro behind Southern Legend at big odds was a beauty. So if she repeats that effort here, she will go very close with a clear run.
Roughie: 10 Tap This (Best Odds: $13.00) is an above average filly for Team Snowden who trialled well at Rosehill prior to resuming at Wyong (Metro) where she had a charmed run behind the tempo and finished best. She has shown enough ability at stages to suggest she can perform at this level, and she does come here with fresh legs, so I’ll give her a knockout hope here.
Race Five (14:30) : Moet & Chandon Champagne Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 7 Obscura (Best Odds: $4.20) was excellent over 1400m at Rosehill where he sat near last in the run and finished off powerfully from the back to run fifth, beaten just over a length. Enormous upside with this son of Street Cry and he will love the step up to the Randwick mile.
Big Danger: 1 Prized Icon (Best Odds: $4.20) comes through the Fernhill (1600m) here last Saturday where he was too strong for them, in what was a pretty pathetic field. The thing in his favour is that he does have solid form around Telperion and Capitalist, so on that, he is a chance.
Roughie: 10 Faraway Town (Best Odds: $6.00) ran third to Yankee Rose in the Sires and she closed off very strongly from the back. I think she has a bit more upside here, and ever since the Magic Millions, this has been her sole target. I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t look the winner at some stage.
Race Six (15:05) : Hall Mark Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Speak Fondly (Best Odds: $5.50) drops big time in grade after contesting the Challenge (1000m) where she was a touch disappointing I thought behind her stablemate English after trialling well prior. She is a Group l winner and if she brought her Spring form here, she’d just about take care of these, so you have to take her on trust.
Big Danger: 11 Music Magnate is a talented gelding that resumes for Bjorn Baker. He finished his Spring prep on a high, winning two on the trot, the last being a win over 1400m here. His trials leading in have been fantastic and he has been one of the best backed runners across Australia this weekend.
Roughie: 9 Zin Zan Eddie (Best Odds: $81.00) resumes here for the Matty Smith yard after a solid Spring/Summer prep, which ended with a sixth over the mile here behind Bull Point. He trialled well a couple of weeks back at Warwick Farm, he can sprint well fresh and he will love a track with give in it. An each way proposition for sure.
Race Seven (15:45) : Schweppes All Aged Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 6 Press Statement (Best Odds: $3.00) has been given a little freshen up since running a game third to Winx and Kermadec in the George Ryder (1500m). He could not have been ridden better by McDonald, but he bumped into a champion and a serious Group l horse. Form held up in the Doncaster and last week in the Queen Elizabeth, he is back to 1400m, fresh legs…ticks all the boxes for me.
Big Danger: I am very cautious about 2 Black Heart Bart (Best Odds: $7.00). Darren Weir almost broke a 100 year hoodoo with first up horses in the Newmarket (1200m) with this horse but was nabbed on the post by The Quarterback, who ran a blinder in the William Reid. Black Heart Bart then went to the Victoria Handicap (1400m) at Caulfield and despite doing plenty wrong, his class was too much. Third up last time in he beat Group l winner Magnifisio and star mare Delicacy, and he just has so much upside here.
Roughie: 1 Kermadec (Best Odds: $7.50) pulled up with excuses after failing in the Doncaster Mile (1600m) behind Winx. His effort prior in the George Ryder (1500m) behind that mare was outstanding. Trainer Chris Waller wouldn’t persist with this horse this prep if he didn’t recover from the Doncaster, so he has obviously done well since and I think back to 1400m is perfect for this horse.
Race Eight (16:25) : Sharp JRA Plate 2000m:
Back Me: 4 Havana Cooler (Best Odds: $4.00) trialled really well prior to resuming in the Doncaster Prelude (1500m) at Rosehill where he produced a brilliant turn of foot from off the pace to score a high class win. Should only improve off that and is the clear horse to beat despite a below par second up record.
Big Danger: 10 Rudy (Best Odds: $15.00) comes here through the Doncaster where he was just simply outclassed behind champion mare Winx. Up to 2000m is no issue for me, gate one and maps very well to get the suck run behind the tempo.
Roughie: 17 Maurus (Best Odds: $15.00) has been given a good freshen up since running over this track/distance in the Randwick City Stakes when a close up third to Libran, who has franked the form. Recent trial was a good tune up and stable is flying.
Race Nine (17:05) : TAB Rewards Royal Randwick 100 (100) 1400m:
Back Me: Looks a good race for the Team Snowden mare 13 Nancy (Best Odds: $3.30). She hasn’t raced since March 19 where she flashed home late at Rosehill when a close second to Artistry, who went on to run midfield in the Coolmore Legacy (1600m) last Saturday. The first up run was a beauty in a white hot form race and being third up here, she should be ready to fire now.
Big Danger: 5 Medacut (Best Odds: $8.50) had one run early on in the Autumn, resulting in a narrow second to Bull Point over the mile here. Tipped out and comes here off the back of a lovely trial at Warwick Farm behind quality mare I’ve Got The Looks. He sprints well fresh and the stable, outside the major races, are having a very good Carnival.
Roughie: 10 Less Is More (Best Odds: $67.00) is the interesting runner here. He hasn’t raced since Feb 2015, with injury really plaguing this quality horse. He has tuned up for his return to racing with a couple of trials, the latest a second to Santa Ana Lane. You look at his form when he was last in work, and that is good enough to be competitive here. Watch for the market and see if there is a push.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 13 Nancy
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 6 Press Statement
VALUE: Race One Number 12 Dylan's Destiny
Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11
Leg Two: 6
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7, 10
Leg Four: 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 13
$50 Investment= 23.80% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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