Queensland metro racing this Saturday heads to the Sunshine Coast for a handy eight race card. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres from the 1200m-400m; True for the remainder.
Race One (13:29) : Coastline BMW 3 Series Handicap 2200m:
Back Me: I’m going to stick solid with 2 Volkhere (Best Odds: $3.00). He strung together two wins at Doomben before coming here where he took some nice ground off Shotover River late. I think Volhere can turn the tables, provided the rider gets rolling a touch earlier, because this horse will just stay all day.
Big Danger: 1 Shotover River (Best Odds: $1.80) is clearly the best horse in the race, and that was evident when racing over this track/distance a fortnight back when bolting up and winning with a fair bit of ease. He can win again, but he will need things to go his way.
Roughie: 3 Uno Five (Best Odds: $9.00) has bumped into Volhere and Shotover River at his past three starts, resulting in two seconds and a fourth behind Shotover River. I doubt he can win again, but he can run his usual honest race again and battle on for a place.
Race Two (14:04) : Coastline BMW X5 Handicap (1MW) 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Britalia Kate (Best Odds: $7.00) for me here and with a bit of confidence. She ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and just got too far back, aided by a somewhat negative ride to eventually run a fast finishing sixth to Divine Service. Draws wide and will get back again, but if she is brought wide instead of playing for luck near the inside, I am confident she’ll go very close to knocking these off.
Big Danger: 11 Three Sheets (Best Odds: $3.80) is on the quick back up from last Saturday where he contested the Country Cup on Magic Millions Day, running a game third to impressive winner War Jet. The stable always has a good record when they back up their horses a week later, and Tegan Harrison has ridden the horse well previously.
Roughie: 13 Champagne Blaze (Best Odds: $51.00) contested a four horse race last Wednesday at Doomben on a heavy track and just got bogged down in the conditions when a close up third to Endless Puzzle. She is much better on top of the ground and won’t be far away from the inside gate, so she is a definite knockout hope at odds.
Race Three (14:39) : Coastline BMW 7 Series Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Whisky All Round (Best Odds: $6.00) went around over 900m last start which was way too short for him so the step back up to 1200m will suit him much better. His run two starts ago was very good and that looks to be a very hot form race with quite a few runners coming out and going close in group races. If he can get a few easy sectionals he will take a lot of running down.
Big Danger: 2 Jopa (Best Odds: $6.00) won well first up at Doomben after being backed at odds before contesting the Goldmarket (1300m) where he was wide all the way but stuck on alright to be beaten just under five lengths from the Bachman, who ran well in the Magic Millions Cup (1400m) last weekend. Back to 1200m suits and is another that is well in after a claim.
Roughie: 9 Final Crescendo (Best Odds: $13.00) comes back to Queensland after a couple of runs in Sydney and while he didn’t win, he was far from disgraced. Looks really well placed here, and I liked the way he looked in a recent trial on his home track at the Gold Coast. Definite threat for mine.
Race Four (15:17) : Coastline BMW 4 Series Handicap (90) 1800m:
Back Me: 3 Lordag (Best Odds: $2.60) is knocking on the door to win a race, and I think he gets his chance here. He ran a strong second to Centre Pivot in the Bernborough (1615m) before running over the mile here where he beat all bar Little Brown Horse. Up to 1800m is the query, but he will do no work from the gate and he is the form horse here.
Big Danger: 7 Good Job Bro (Best Odds: $12.00) appreciated the drop in grade when racing on his home track on New Years Eve where he was given a peach steer from Jimmy Orman to bolt up, admittedly not beating much, but it was impressive. He ran well in town prior, so he will measure up, and he drops 4.5kg from that win.
Roughie: 14 Canongate (Best Odds: $26.00) rises significantly in grade after running over this track/distance a fortnight back where he stuck on alright to finish fifth to surprise yet impressive winner Cramming. Harder here, but with a cold ride, and his lightweight, he can finish hard late and be a knockout chance.
Race Five (15:57) : Coastline BMW 5 Series Handicap (75) 1000m:
Back Me: 8 Spirit Of Dawn (Best Odds: $17.00) has been in very good form of late and there is nothing to say he wont go close again today. He loves the track and distance and if he can get a bit of luck from the barrier i think he will go close at good odds in what looks to be a very winnable race for him.
Big Danger: 16 Assertory (Best Odds: $4.80) has really found her best this time in, bolting up on both occasions, the latest at Doomben on New Years Day and while she didn’t beat much there, the win was quite dominant. Hardest test to date here, but she gets some weight relief and she looks in the right frame of mind to tackle Saturday grade.
Roughie: 18 Alpen Rose (Best Odds: $9.00) is a talented mare that resumes for Rob Heathcoate. Formerly with Kris Lees before Heathcoate took over for a couple of runs towards the end of last prep, which resulted in a close up placing at Doomben. No trials, but she has a tidy record first up and does tend to save her best for 1000m.
Race Six (16:37) : Coastline BMW 2YO Classic 1200m:
Back Me: 13 Royal Tithe (Best Odds: $3.40) has been given a month freshen up since running a game second to Candika at Doomben, and that horse franked the form by placing behind Capitalist in the Magic Millions. That’s the main form reference leading in to this, and despite the awkward draw, she looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: 8 Love Spy (Best Odds: $5.50) debuted on her home track at Toowoomba where she showed good toe to lead all the way and winning quite comfortably. Harder here, but there was a bit to like about the performance and Jim Byrne has been booked.
Roughie: 3 Par Oneri (Best Odds: $12.00) has been off the scene for five weeks since playing behind Sundance in the Phelan Ready at Doomben. The booking of D Browne is a positive lead, he draws well and is trained on the track.
Race Seven (17:17) : Coastline BMW 2 Series Handicap (80) 1400m:
Back Me: 10 Gid Up Strop (Best Odds: $4.40) for me. He is clearly the best horse in the race who resumes for Rob Heathcoate off the back of a dominant win at Doomben in September. He was nominated to run during the Melbourne Spring, but the stable pulled the pin. No trials leading in, but he can run well fresh and I like the fact he resumes at 1400m whereas last time in he resumed at 1200m, an indication he might be forward.
Big Danger: 4 Buakaw (Best Odds: $13.00) resumed over 1200m here a fortnight back where he worked home strongly near the inside to run a close up fifth to Divine Service. He’ll improve now he has the run under the belt, he draws well and Brad Stewart is on, and he has ridden the horse well previously.
Roughie: 11 Colour Charge (Best Odds: $17.00) has raced twice this prep, both here, and while he hasn’t set the world on fire, he’s had to carry some weight and forced back in the run. He draws a decent gate here and Colless is on. Needs to improve form wise, but he can be a threat if the breaks go his way.
Race Eight (17:55) : Coastline BMW X6M Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 9 Hesitation (Best Odds: $8.50) on top for me in a tricky race. She hasn’t raced in a month since running a close up third to in form type Sea Red, beaten just over two lengths. She was an emergency for the Magic Millions Guineas, so the class is there, and ticks all the boxes bar the wide gate. If she can overcome that, she’ll go close.
Big Danger: 8 Banda Spice (Best Odds: $17.00) ran under the lights here a tick over a month back where she ran a close up fourth to Miri Miri, beaten just over half a length in a thrilling and bunched finish. Gets a 2.5kg weight swing, so she is the horse to follow from that form reference, and she is a Stakes performer.
Roughie: 14 Mr Epic (Best Odds: $18.00) ran second in that Miri Miri race, and his effort was pretty good I thought, sitting on speed and fighting on well in a pleasing first up effort. Draws to get every chance from the gate and can fill a place if the breaks go his way.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 10 Gid Up Strop
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Lordag
VALUE: Race Five Number 8 Spirit Of Dawn
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 18
Leg Two: 3, 6, 8, 11, 13
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 12, 14
$50 Investment= 3.40% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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