16/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Canterbury

I am in the corner of 10 Super Chilled (Bet Now:  $SP.00) to start the meeting. Chris Waller trained filly that was 1300m to 1600m last time at Kembla where she tried to get a drag into the race but she had to do it herself and that sustained run just told late when second to Fun Sunday. Has a much better set up this time around, she finds J Mac and should settle much closer in the run. I’d have her a clear favourite.

4 Fudai (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to break the maiden tag. He ran over 1400m at Newcastle last time out when a notable drifter in betting but despite that he ran a super race and looked the winner but was nabbed near the peg when second to Blueskin. Hard fit now and with the claim for Dylan Gibbons, he appeals as one of the main contenders.

3 Dash Dash Dash (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Star Witness for Ian Finn that resumes. He’s had a few chances to break the maiden tag but has been thereabouts. Interesting he resumes over this trip, suggesting he is forward enough to run well fresh and the trials indicate as much, so I’d watch the market and see what it does with him.

Gee he’s been a nightmare 7 Shalatin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but he’s had the ultimate operation, gelded, and if he’s going to be any decent racehorse, he should be winning this. He trialled up enormous at Warwick Farm behind Moscow Night and seemingly had plenty in hand while that horse was ridden right out to win the trial. Trials aren’t everything but you can’t get away from it here and Shalatin is clearly the one to beat.

8 Urban Jewel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Capitalist for the GaiBott camp that is on debut. She had a prep as a 3YO filly around this time last year without a run, but two trials. Been given nearly a year off and has had two trials this time in to get ready for start one. This race has fallen away after scratchings and with this stable, suspect she’ll roll forward and take beating.

1 Aimpoint (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a definite chance. Well bred three year old that hasn’t raced since his debut at Hawkesbury in August when solid from off the speed behind California Touch. Couple of trials under the belt to get ready, I think he needs to improve a fair bit to beat Shalatin, but do have to respect this stable, who have been dominant in the night season so far.

6 Lalaguna (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. She resumed here three weeks ago where she was tucked in behind the speed and didn’t have the clearest of paths but that said, she had her chance to finish the race off and threaten. Somewhat unlucky, but overall, she had her chance. Hoping for a more positive ride to see her settle in the first four and prove hard to beat I’d suggest.

11 Ahoy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to beat. That is what she did when resuming three weeks ago here, shooting across from the wide gate to land outside the leader and she tried hard to kick but was no match late for Jewellery. She should land in a similar spot despite the gate, or potentially land in front. If the track is playing up/in, she will be hard to run down.

2 Demiana (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of I Am Invincible on debut for Chris Waller. She has had a good grounding for start one, with a Winter prep without a run. Spelled and has come back with two trials this time in to get ready, each time catching the eye. Likely will be spotting them a start but should be strong at the end whereas some of these will be getting the staggers.

4 Chenin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) did the right thing by us last Wednesday and won’t be dropping off. Blinkers went on, Josh Parr sent her straight to the front and the race was over from 1000m out, with the mare leading throughout and she was dominant late. Should hold the lead comfortably from the gate and if the pattern is up/in, she becomes a near good thing. Think she’s one of the best on the program.

3 African Daisy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has upside and gets J Mac. Backed with confidence when resuming at Scone back on November 7 and despite a few nervous moments, class came to the fore and she was much too good for her rivals. Break between runs I find interesting but she comes straight to town and the stable gets J Mac to steer so to me, that signals intent, so she’s a market watch.

2 Kouklara (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. She’s had two runs back from a spell, winning fresh at the midweeks at Rosehill before going to the Chenin race mentioned above where she was back in a slowly run race and made up some headway but was never a factor. She’d want a more genuine tempo, which is a query, but if for some reason there is more tempo, she’ll be strong late.

2 Game Theory (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should land on speed and prove hard to beat. He ran over this track/distance three weeks ago and just forget he went around. He was tucked in behind the speed and tried to get clear air but it just didn’t eventuate for him, so forget he went around behind all the way winner Spaceboy. Hoping for an aggressive/positive ride from Gibbons, lands in front, outside leader at worst, and be tough late.

3 Rockribbed (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Maher/Eustace trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since Anzac Day at Flemington down the straight when far from disgraced in defeat behind the then in form Beehunter. Unbeaten fresh and his jumpout work in Victoria has been pretty good. Dare say they’ve come here in search of a firm deck, he gets that here and this is a winnable race if he’s ready to go.

5 Dynamic Impact (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Real Impact for Bjorn Baker that resumes. He tried to get his way into The Big Dance via the Forbes Cup but he looked a tired horse and produced an end of prep run behind One Aye. He can sprint well fresh and the trial work has been encouraging. Blinkers off suggests this is a prep run, but he is a track/distance winner that has Saturday class talent.

1 Akasawa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suited up to the mile for Paul Messara. Defied a notable betting drift to win fresh under the lights at Canterbury before going to Rosehill where the sit/sprint set up was clearly not to his liking so be forgiving of the seemingly plain effort behind Mensa Missile. Hard fit now and up to the mile, more genuine tempo, he can run a much improved race.

3 Danish Prince (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. He is a last start Saturday winner that drops back to a Friday night midweek event that is lacking overall depth. He found the right spot for the meeting at Rosehill last time but he still had to dig in and win, get the job done, and that he did. Think he can potentially find the front here, get control on speed and be hard to run down.

5 Dimaggio (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suspect at 1550m but has the barrier to ensure he’ll get every chance to run it out. Ran just under two weeks back in the Midway at Rosehill where he was near the speed throughout and battled on pretty well in defeat behind Byron. There is depth to this race but he maps to do no work in the run and is dangerous if the rail is hot.

7 Savvy Legend (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a peanut each way. On the seven day back up after racing last Friday night at this track/distance where he again didn’t have the best of luck in the straight, which was the case the start prior, and should have finished much closer behind Media Starguest. Like the jockey switch and this race is seriously lacking overall depth, so on the back, he’s worth a bet each way at the odds.

1 Media Starguest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a last start winner. That is a sentence I never thought I’d type out but he is indeed coming here off the back of a win here last Friday night. The big tick for him from that win is that he fought for it and dug in late, whereas he normally turns it up. If he can build off that into this and show the same amount of ticker, he’s right in the mix.

12 Real Peace (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing well without winning for Clarry Conners and is a knockout chance. Ran in a 2000m Midway at Rosehill last time out and was good to the line without threatening when fourth to Whanga Wonder, beaten around 1.5L. He’ll likely do no work in the run from the gate, sit back and be strong at the end whereas some of these are suspect at the trip and have tricky maps.

4 Mystic Mermaid (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is better suited over further but has a kind map from the gate and will be strong late so she’ll do me each way in the get out. Last run came on August 27 at Rosehill over 1500m when a close up fourth to Hope In Your Heart, who of course went on to be a multiple Stakes winner, so that form clearly reads well for this, and the trial work has been positive. Needs luck but is a big enough price to find out.

7 King Of Naples (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to get past. Ran two weeks ago on the Kenso where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a solid kick but was run down late by a very much in form Royal Merchant. Blinkers back on is intent, so suspect they’ll be aggressive and look to find the front, and try to run them into the ground. Hard to beat.

Fitter and down in grade are two big ticks for 3 Yoshino (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He was specked at odds when resuming a fortnight back at Rosehill when specked at a price but just wasn’t suited by the race shape and pattern, just feeling the pinch late behind Felix Majestic. Like him back to this level and I reckon with a more conservative steer, you’ll see a much better performance.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 4 Chenin

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Shalatin

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 7 Savvy Legend

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 3

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5

Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 10, 12

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 7

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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