16/12/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield

Caulfield will host its first meeting since Caulfield Cup Day this Saturday with a strong nine race program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out twelve metres for the entire circuit.

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Godolphin are going relatively well with their youngsters so I’ll side with 3 Fake (Bet Now: $8.50). He debuted in a Gosford maiden three weeks back where he had the box seat sit off a fast speed and despite doing a bit wrong when angling clear, once he let down, gee he was impressive. Good sign when they send them to Melbourne.

13 Via Regina (Bet Now: $13.00) is a well bred filly on debut for Sun Bloodstock and the Hayes/Dabernig team. Bred to come to hand early, she does draw the paint, gets Mallyon steering and I like what I have seen from this daughter of Snitzel at the jump outs. I think she’s right in the game provided she jumps clean.

4 Native Soldier (Bet Now: $16.00) is a nice looking type for Darren Weir who was kept safe in betting when debuting in the Clockwise Classic at Ballarat a fortnight back. He got well back off a fast speed and was never really a winning threat but I liked the way he found the line late. Looks better suited here so I am giving him respect.

15 La Volt (Bet Now: $17.00) on top. Ellerton/Zahra trained four year old who resumed over 1200m at Sale and I liked the way he kept finding the line when second to Little Bita Spunk. The record says his second up form isn’t great, but those runs were behind Royal Ace and Willi Willi, both genuine city performers and in races that were much stronger than this. Happy to be in his corner.

6 Sacred Sham (Bet Now: $5.00) is a son of O’Reilly for the Danny O’Brien team who resumed on Ballarat Cup Day over 1100m where he looked to race a touch keen in the run just off the speed and that probably left him without petrol tickets the final 150m when Via Balciano charged home out wide. Lone second up run he just missed out on Motown Lil, a blacktype performer. Reads well for this.

8 Fortify (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Henry Dywer trained four year old who hasn’t raced since Ararat Cup Day over 1100m where Thornton gave him a lovely ride on speed on a leaders track and saved enough energy for the final 100m given he was first up. He does tend to race best on the fresh side and is trained here, so he ticks a few boxes.

4 Mactier (Bet Now: $7.50) gets the nod. Mick Price trains this three year old who got a fair way back in the run last time out in the Eureka Stockade at Ballarat but wound up with real purpose to just miss out on picking up Tezlah. He’ll eat up the 1400m on his home track. Just needs to relax in the run to go close.

3 Holy Freeze (Bet Now: $4.60) is a stablemate of Silent General who took on the three year olds at the same meeting at Sandown. He really struggled to ping on the bog track but he was sound and kept finding late when a close up second to Memory Bank in a close go. Much better suited on firmer footing here and rates highly.

6 Montaser (Bet Now: $7.00) is a colt trained by the Busuttin/Young team who was hard in the market when debuting in what looked a strong maiden at Mornington and despite being under pressure on the turn, he kept finding under Ben Allen and was very good the last 50m when attacking the line and drawing clear. He can measure up here for sure.

6 Vinland (Bet Now: $1.90) looks the obvious. This bloke was an alarming drifter in betting when racing over the Sandown mile a fortnight back on the bog but nobody told him that as he absolutely bolted in under Andrew Mallyon and won with plenty in hand. No issues running 1700m and will be better suited on firmer footing.

10 Atone (Bet Now: $6.50) is a handy type for Robert Smerdon who won with a bit of arrogance on debut at Mornington before going to that race won by Vinland mentioned above. He looked completely legless on the surface but his last 100-150 was excellent as he worked to the line with purpose. Trained on the track and gets a decent weight pull.

1 Fudged (Bet Now: $10.00) is a mare really well at the moment, albeit in weaker grade than this. She put together a couple of sharp wins prior to racing over the mile at Sandown two weeks ago where she attempted to lead all the way and tried hard but the bog surface just got to her when third to Mrs Gardenia. Well in at the weights after the claim, maps well, hard fit and in form.

Taking an each way gamble on 8 Rib Eye (Bet Now: $14.00). Trained on the track by Clinton McDonald who can be hit and miss at times. But I think he should be forgiven for the last start failure at the Valley given he copped severe heat on speed and dropped out to finish down the track behind Carraig Amour. That was on October 27, so he has had the freshen up. Goes well on the fresh side and maps super.

1 Mrs Gardenia (Bet Now: $2.50) is an obvious threat. Was hard in betting when racing over the Sandown mile a fortnight back and despite not being entirely happy on the wet track, her class and brilliance got her home. Think she will be much better on top of the ground and she isn’t badly in at the weights given her form.

With firmer footing and a significant drop in depth, 7 Portion Control (Bet Now: $9.50) could be the big improver. Found the class a bit rich two back behind Mr Garcia before racing on the bog at Sandown and he was completely legless behind Night’s Watch. Looks to map super here just off the pace and he likes racing at Caulfield.

12 Bint El Bedu (Bet Now: $5.00) looks well placed here by Mick Price. Talented staying mare who had no hope with the tempo on Oaks Day behind Linguist before going to Cranbourne where she appreciated tempo and a class drop for a dominant win. She is racing as if the 2400m will be perfect and she is on her home track.

6 Etah James (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Matt Cumani trained mare who is building up a strong record. She landed some really good bets when racing over 2300m on Ballarat Cup Day in a similar race to this where she was given such a sweet ride off the pace by Linda Meech and she toughed it out best in a real slog. No qualms with the 2400m.

8 Parthesia (Bet Now: $12.00) could be the big improver at odds. She is on the seven day back up after racing over 2000m at Pakenham last Saturday where she got well back in an on pace dominated affair and she was making ground but bottomed out 150m from home. Last time she was at this distance range, she ran second to a Group l performer in Ana Royale.

3 Hazzabeel (Bet Now: $19.00) could be the big improver. Peter Healey trains this former Group l performer.Resumed over 1200m at Ballarat where he looked to travel well behind the speed but as soon as he was let go, the wheels started spinning and he dropped out behind Got The Goss. Firmer footing would be ideal. If he happens to get it, I think he can run a ripping race.

10 Urban Ruler (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Greg Eurell trained four year old who was backed as if unbeatable first up and got the win on Geelong Cup Day. He then stuck on well on Stakes Day at Flemington behind Tribal Wisdom before racing on Ballarat Cup Day where he really struggled on the shifty surface behind New Universe. Much better suited on firmer footing here.

I find 4 Velox (Bet Now: $18.00) such an interesting runner here. Quality galloper that resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig team who had two runs to kick off a Spring prep but failed to fire so he was tipped out. Been given a decent break and his recent jump outs have been quite encouraging, and he gets the claim for young Kersley.

8 Oberland (Bet Now: $7.00) was pretty good two back at Caulfield behind Rich Charm on Blue Sapphire Day before going to the straight on Cup Day and he was again an eye catcher when finishing midfield behind Ocean Embers. Hard fit and back around a bend in a fast run 1100m looks an ideal recipe for him to run well.

1 Crystal Dreamer (Bet Now: $3.40) is an absolute beauty for the Ellerton/Zahra team. This talented sprinter hasn’t raced for a month since bolting up in the Doveton at Sandown under Lane, who gave the five year old a peach ride near the speed, controlled things beautifully and dashed when required. Loves Caulfield and more so loves racing on the fresh side.

6 Got The Goss (Bet Now: $8.00) is absolutely low flying at the moment for Darren Weir. He was once known as a horse who was legless on a track with give in it, but he put that theory to bed with an outstanding win on a bottomless Ballarat surface in a race which had depth to it. Maps to get a lovely run off the pace and he’ll be better suited on top of the ground.

13 Creativity (Bet Now: $3.80) on top in the get out. Ellerton/Zahra trained mare who resumed over 1100m on Ballarat Cup Day where she was completely unwanted in betting but despite that she loomed large to win, only to be bloused late by the in form SA galloper Via Balciano. Should come right on from that, maps super and is a second up winner.

Hard to knock a winner and that is what 11 Club Tropicana (Bet Now: $5.50) is in recent times. Had cover for most of the trip last time out at Sandown under Williams and she found plenty when challenged to score a narrow but gritty win against the boys. Back against the mares now and draws to get a lovely run just off the pace.

12 If Not Now When (Bet Now: $7.00) is the watch horse. Henry Dwyer trained mare who resumes on her home track. She can be a bit hit and miss at times but when she is on, she’s definitely up to this level, and her trial win on November 27 at Cranbourne looked very good to the eye. Just has to overcome the tricky draw.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 13 Creativity

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Fake

VALUE: Race Seven Number 3 Hazzabeel

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 6, 7, 8, 9, 12

Leg Two: 3, 4, 7, 8, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 8, 9

Leg Four: 8, 10, 11, 12, 13

$50 Investment= 6.66% of the dividend if successful

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