Racing returns to Flemington this Saturday for a ripping afternoon, highlighted by the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:30) JDRF Pin & Win Plate 2500m
3 Master Zephyr (Bet Now: $9.50 FAT ODDS) on top but the less said about this race the better I think. This bloke, like some engaged here, come through the 2400m race at Caulfield from two weeks ago won by stablemate High Church and I thought his effort off a slow tempo was quite good. He has upside to come and has a decent enough record here, plus Williams remains on.
7 Tiffany’s Lass (Bet Now: $5.50 FAT ODDS) is a beauty for the Danny Laws stable and what you see is what you get with her. Puts herself on speed and gives her all. She did that three weeks back at the Valley on a mad leaders track and yep, the bias helped her, but she got the win on the board. Probably leads or takes cover from Hush Writer. Either way, she gets the ideal run.
1 High Church (Bet Now: $7.00 FAT ODDS) is a Darren Weir trained stayer that once he finds form, he generally holds it. He ran over 2400m at Caulfield a fortnight ago and I thought he did quite a good job to win given he had to outsprint Midterm in what was a real sit/sprint affair. He got the stride in and now he’s won, his confidence is up and he can repeat the dose.
Race 2. (13:05) Cap D'Antibes Stakes 1100m
7 Smart Melody (Bet Now: $3.50 FAT ODDS) looks the winner. Kris Lees trains this unbeaten filly, who resumed on Wyong Cup Day a couple of Fridays back and while she didn’t beat much, the win was brilliant given she had to make her run nearer the inside, which clearly wasn’t the spot to be, yet she sprinted and won with ease. Toughest test to date, but on what she’s done to date, she looks a Group l class type.
I find 6 Sweet Rockette (Bet Now: $13.00 FAT ODDS) a fascinating runner. Michelle Payne trains this filly, and her win three weeks ago at the Valley was outstanding. Wide no cover throughout on a day where the inside lanes were dynamite yet she sat out there and proved too tough for boom filly Multaja. Loved the way she closed off in a tick over trial last week at Cranbourne. Just want to see her do it again before jumping on.
11 Cristal Eyes (Bet Now: $26.00 FAT ODDS) is a Hayes/Dabernig filly who drifted in betting when resuming at the Valley in a race won by Sweet Rockette and if you were on, it was a hard watch. She looked to be bolting out the back but the runs just didn’t come for her and she pretty much went to the line under a hold. Ran well down the straight during the Autumn which is a definite tick that she handles the straight course.
Race 3. (13:40) The Sofitel 1400m
I’ll take a chance on 9 Violate (Bet Now: $15.00 FAT ODDS), who resumes for Brent Stanley. This horse doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates but he does have some pretty good form next to his name. Can pull out a decent run fresh and first up last prep at this track/distance he went within a lip of winning so I’m hoping he’s ready to go.
1 Theanswermyfriend (Bet Now: $4.60 FAT ODDS) won this race last year and I reckon 12 months on, he’s going better. Tough on speed win two back at the Valley before backing up a week later in the Penny Edition at Morphettville and despite being out of petrol tickets late, he clung on. Harder here, but will be rolling along on speed and giving his all.
6 Sully (Bet Now: $21.00 FAT ODDS) is the x factor. He’s a high quality galloper resuming for the Busuttin/Young team who hasn’t raced since finishing down the straight in the Randwick Guineas behind Kementari. Can produce a decent first up run and I liked what I saw from him in a recent Cranbourne jump out. He’s certainly good enough to figure in the finish. Market will be the guide.
Race 4. (14:15) Antler Luggage Plate 1400m
Big fan of 13 Declarationofheart (Bet Now: $7.00 FAT ODDS) and really keen to see how he goes here against some nice types. He hasn’t raced since August 15 when resuming with an electric win over 1300m at Sandown, charging home from off the pace and bolting up, producing some outstanding late splits in doing so. Tick over trial last week at Cranbourne was very good and I think he’ll eat up the Flemington 1400m.
I’m not a believer in 3 Brutal (Bet Now: $2.80 FAT ODDS) just yet but I think we will get a better guide to him and whether he’s a contender or pretender for the Spring. The McKenzie (1200m) win at the Valley three weeks ago, to the eye, was plain, and the time he ran was slower than that of Merriest earlier in the day. That being said, he did work in the run and stable did say he would improve off that. He needs to in order to beat this lot but we know the stable can prep them to perfection.
10 Farooq (Bet Now: $21.00 FAT ODDS) is a Tony McEvoy trained colt who was heavily backed when resuming over 1250m on the Parks track a fortnight ago where he took on five rivals and while the depth was nothing special, he put them away late like a good horse and won impressively. Draws to get a lovely run near the speed and his efforts from the Adelaide Carnival were solid.
Race 5. (14:50) Bobbie Lewis Quality 1200m
I think the bookies are once again underestimating 4 Rich Charm (Bet Now: $3.50). I thought he was one of the runs of the race in the Heath at Caulfield a fortnight back against the slow tempo. On the turn, he was going nowhere and was going to run last but he picked up and charged through the line to run fourth to Ball Of Muscle. Straight track specialist who should be hard to hold out.
7 Kemono (Bet Now: $3.80) is a Darren Weir trained Japanese galloper who resumed in the Heath and to the eye, he was disappointing behind Ball Of Muscle but bear in mind the tempo was against him, the track was sticky and at start one here, he probably was in need of the run. He can be a big improver here, though his work on Monday behind Brave Smash was just fair I thought.
6 First Among Equals (Bet Now: $9.00) is a sprinter trained by Darren Weir who I thought did a ripping job first up in the Heath. He was wide throughout yet loomed large to beat Ball Of Muscle, but his condition just gave way late when a close up sixth. He’ll come right on from that and has a fab second up record.
Race 6. (15:30) Let's Elope Stakes 1400m
Provided there is no second up syndrome, 13 Petition (Bet Now: $9.00) should go close. Anthony Freedman trains this mare, who resumed in the Cockram a fortnight ago and I thought her run behind Ellicazoom was full of merit. Didn’t get much room in the straight but once she did, she stuck on pretty well to run fourth. Flemington 1400m second up looks an ideal set up.
2 Bella Martini (Bet Now: $5.50) is a quality mare for the Hawkes camp who is four weeks between runs since resuming in the Regal Roller at Caulfield where she didn’t get the greatest amount of luck in the straight and was a little unlucky not to finish closer I thought when fourth to Osborne Bulls. Back to mares grade, she should take some beating.
12 Sheezdashing (Bet Now: $14.00) is the one who will be charging at them late. The Ellerton/Zahra stable train this mare, who hasn’t raced since being beaten a lip by Youngster in a ripping edition of the Queensland Oaks. Might need a run or two, but her recent jump out was more than encouraging and if they can run on from the back, she’s one to look out for.
Race 7. (16:10) Makybe Diva Stakes 1600m
This is a red hot race. 3 Humidor (Bet Now: $4.00) is the horse to beat. His Memsie win was outstanding and somewhat of a surprise given Weir did say the horse would improve big time leading into the Makybe Diva so if he’s going to improve off that, he will take some beating. He won the race last year and does save his best for Flemington.
Forgive a good horse for one average run so I’ll do that with 1 Happy Clapper (Bet Now: $7.50). He resumed in the Memsie where I was very keen on his chances but just put it down to him not handling Caulfield. He balanced up the last 200m and was pretty good late. The Flemington mile will really suit him and I keep coming back to the fact he has consistently raced well against Winx.
6 Comin Through (Bet Now: $10.00) is a high class animal for Chris Waller who was somewhat unwanted in betting when resuming in the Tramway at Randwick a fortnight back where I thought Michael Walker rode the gelding super, other than the fact he probably hit the front a touch too soon, but he got the win. Second up at the mile looks ideal. I doubt he can win, but he’ll run a beauty.
Race 8. (16:50) Danehill Stakes 1200m
I think 2 Marcel From Madrid (Bet Now: $5.50) is the big improver for the Ellerton/Zahra camp. He resumed in the McKenzie behind Brutal and I thought he did a great job given he was first up on a track which probably didn’t suit him, he was back and wide against the bias yet still stuck on well to run fourth. Would love him at 1400m, but he’s certainly capable here.
He wants further but hard to ignore the resumption of 11 Ocean Knight (Bet Now: $8.00) in the McKenzie. He was back in the run on a day where those near the speed was the spot to be yet he peeled wide and charged to the line with purpose behind Brutal. 1400m+ will suit him I think, but trained here, so I’m sure he’s had a look or two down the straight.
9 Thorondor (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Robbie Laing trained colt who comes through the McNeil from a fortnight back at Caulfield where he did a pretty good job in defeat but was no match late for Native Soldier. I think he can get the perfect drag up via that horse from the barriers and turning the tables I wouldn’t rule out.
Race 9. (17:30) Sofitel Girls Day Out Handicap 1700m
15 Furrion (Bet Now: $2.25) looks one of the best of the day. Admittedly he didn’t beat much when resuming at Geelong a couple of Sundays back, but it was the manner in which he put them away. It was that of a Group l horse. Whether he gets there this time in remains to be seen, but up to 1700m on the bigger track looks ideal.
10 Mr Garcia (Bet Now: $5.00) looks primed to run a beauty. Good resumption over 1400m here behind Theanswermyfriend before stepping up to the Caulfield 1700m where he just found Call Me Handsome too good in the Heatherlie. Reckon he is now looking for further, but the upside/quality is clearly there.
17 Danon Roman (Bet Now: $19.00) is a former Japanese runner making his Australian debut for the Anthony Freedman team. This five year old doesn’t have the A1 Japanese form next to his name, but as we have seen time and time again, you always have to respect them when they come down under, and I didn’t mind his recent Cranbourne trial. Market will tell you how forward he is.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Two Number 7 Smart Melody
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 15 Furrion
LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 9 Violate
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 8, 12, 13
Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 10
Leg Three: 2, 3, 9, 11
Leg Four: 15
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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